Wall Observer

[ChartBuddy]

Coin Explanation

 

[Erdogan]

Great calculation. I tried the same once on r/bitcoin but was heavily downvoted and rejected.

There is one chart, about cost of transaction, and it shows something like the health of the network. In the beginning of 2013 it was on a alltime-low, 1-2$, and you know what happened after this - a raise from ~10$ to 1000$ ... at the end of 2013 cost for one tx was ~60-70$, now it has gone done to ~6-7$ ... at this capacity every rise of the prize will make the network unhealthy, since it can't be backed by a raising number of transactions.

It is irrelevant to include the block reward in the cost of transaction calculation. The cost of mining will always tend to move towards block reward plus fees, and in a few years it will be mostly fees. The cost will then be whatever people think a transaction is worth, and whatever the minimum fee a miner is willing to accept.

The difficulty could go down, but I doubt it.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin Explanation

 

[JayJuanGee]

You see 10x within 24 months, just 'cause. Well, I hope you weigh the inverse of that game. How much are you buying when segwit softforks onto us?

You are coming off as a bit pretentious and patronizing.

I got my bets lined up with my words....


Surely, nothing is 100% in bitcoinlandia, and I am giving my ideas of continued growth based on a variety of factors including a large number of networking effects that bitcoin continues to enjoy in terms of infrastructure and development.

I got bets placed in both directions, but I am anticipating that we remain upwardly bound.

I don't know exactly what is going to happen with seg wit... if seg wit goes accross smoothly without any major glitches, then that will be bullish. ON the other hand, if there are glitches, then that would be bearish... we already are anticipating seg wit going live in 2 months or so... so some of the anticipation regarding seg wit is already playing out in the downward price pressures and uncertainties, which could resolve in the coming weeks and prior to the actual going live of segwit.

In my thinking, Seg wit is not exactly being forced upon anyone... we got a bunch of whiners in bitcoin's community who are over-inflating the negative uncertainties of seg wit, but a lot of that is hype, rather than reality, and seg wit is generally not in dispute concerning it to be the next direction for bitcoin.

 

[JayJuanGee]

@JayJuanGee
How do you make your estimates about the future price of bitcoin? Gut feeling?

I use this:

I've seen those graphs previously, and I suppose that I consider the graphs and a whole hell-of-a-lot of other information that is currently floating around in my head at the time that I make whatever off-the-wall proclamation that I make.

For example, those above graphs are all fine and dandy, yet sometimes they can understate the devil in the details of even getting to 1%.. .yet we witness the value of BTC, even with a 1% valuation, and M2 money is not the only value of bitcoin...

Accordingly, if I come across information that challenges my prior beliefs, I will reconsider matters. Even though there is a lot of potential with upward price movement of bitcoin, there are also a lot of challenges with human behavior that could change bitcoin's valuation... whether it is finding back doors into the technology or back doors in the governance or even spreading of FUD to cause confidence issues.

It could take one or two more years in bitcoinlandia to put to rest some of these scaling questions that are wrapped into governance issues, and bitcoin's growth could be stagnated and delayed because of the squabbling.... ... On the other hand, I continue to believe that people are going to continue to invest some of their money into bitcoin and continue to cause upward price pressures, in spite of the squabbling, and the squabbling does not seem too likely to bring bitcoin down..

 

[Cconvert2G36]

and bitcoin's growth could be stagnated and delayed because of the squabbling.... ...

We are not delayed because of the squabbling. We are squabbling because of the delay.

Apparently, there are some who consider the Bitcoin token to have a monopoly on p2p value transfer, and are hell bent on learning why they're wrong the hard way. At least some of them have a self interested reason for giving it a shot tho.

-----

For some on topic: 3600 btc protecting $400 on finex yesterday has become 3000 btc today.

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F2Pool solved a pair of classic blocks today... nice work Wang Chun, keep 'em coming.

 

[JayJuanGee]

LMAO i thought of you after i wrote that
It's just so typical for fresh fiat to hit buy at the tops, I mean understanding market dynamics isn't common knowledge...
and it takes talent and nuttyness to hit buy when everything seems like its falling apart.

Frequently, people bring up my timing of getting into bitcoin situation in order to imply that I am irrational, impulsive or less than intelligent to get into something during a 10x bubble and really after two 10x bubbles for that year (which is a 100x bubble)..


Yeah, in retrospect, it may seem pretty illogical, but if you just hear about something, you can wait it out, or get a little skin in the game. My choice was to get a little skin in the game and to ride it out, and I allocated only a fraction of my available money at the time, over the next 6 months.. from 11/13 to mid 2014.


I don't really want to retell my story... yet, I think that the point is that people hear about bitcoin when they hear about it, and whether it is going up or down, they make a choice about what to do because past performance is not really an indication of future performance.. and so they have to decide based on the information in front of them at that particular moment.


An assumption built into considering my BTC investment situation is that I got in to bitcoin balls to the walls in November 2013, which is far from the case, and far from the prudent route that anyone should invest in any asset after it has experienced dramatic price increases.


Therefore, dollar cost averaging can be employed in early investment stages, and frequently is prudent, if the investment is fairly solid and likely to increase in value in the longer term (such as 5 years), even though it may have a lot of ups and downs in the shorter term (6 months to 2 years).


Even if I may have heard about bitcoin before November 2013, I never really considered it or looked into it until November 2013... and I agree that there are going to be a lot of people like that coming into bitcoin in the coming years, as the price of bitcoin continues to go up, continues to become more mainstream and people continue to hear about it.


Also, for example, when I sell coins on local bitcoins, I tend to get a lot more inquiries into buying bitcoin when the price is going up and people have a very irresistible tendency to buy during the up price points, rather than the downswings. There’s a kind of psychology with it, but also a kind of news hype that exacerbates the buying on an upswing tendency.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin Explanation

 

[JayJuanGee]

We are not delayed because of the squabbling. We are squabbling because of the delay.

Apparently, there are some who consider the Bitcoin token to have a monopoly on p2p value transfer, and are hell bent on learning why they're wrong the hard way. At least some of them have a self interested reason for giving it a shot tho.

Apparently, there are some who consider the Bitcoin token to have a monopoly on p2p value transfer, and are hell bent on learning why they're wrong the hard way. At least some of them have a self interested reason for giving it a shot tho.[/QUOTE]



Your first statement regarding cause and effect is nonsense. The reality of the matter is that there is a bit of a feedback loop, and really, we are not going to completely eliminate squabbling because it is built into any kind of decentralized system.



Your second statement is probably even dumber than the first, and also trails into a bit of incomprehensibility. You seem to be suggesting centralization decision making of some individuals, suggesting ill will of some individuals and also that attempting to punish them is a good idea to teach them a lesson.... Lot's of nattering nancy negativity nonsense, devolving into a bit of apparent retardedness.

 

[Fatman3002]

Ok, I have a devious plan. I'll buy a couple of AMD Radeon Fury Xs and mine eth with them until the HTC Vive headsets ship. That way I'll get VR ready HW without having to explain to my wife why I need $1500 in Gfx cards to power my new toy(which she thinks costs $150) and I'll earn back some of the cost.

Whipped you say?

Nah, I'm taking the power back!!!!!!!

 

[shmadz]

Wow, that's crazy, I never knew fatty was a ninja, but I suspected,

Anyways - how do I ignore on this channel? I can see options for "tools" but out only says "report"

I don't want to report I just want to block

 

[Fatman3002]

Just press my name and a box will appear. It will have an ignore button.

 

[shmadz]

Thank you so much Mr Fat Man. Btw it wasn't you I was trying to ignore. I appreciate your opinions and sometimes humorous commentary... and of course, your technical support as I acclimate to this new environment.

"

 

[Bloomie]

If you're finding that the site is timing out on you or giving you errors, you might be sharing an IP with a spambot. Changing your proxy can help with this.

 

[opsec]

Dudes, the site was down for me most the day again today... snapped a screen from isitdown.... also, just so it's clear, the recently checked links are def not mine...

 

[blackspidy]

Just as I was deeming this the darkest hour, BAM! my sell order at $409.40 got filled on bitfinex (to close a small part of my long). The one at $412 almost got filled. Man, feels good to have moved the base price of my long down. I'll break even at $411, and looking at recent history, that's cheap-ish coins.

 

[shmadz]

Ok man, just remember that you're obsessing over 3 dollar moves on an asset that will likely move over one hundred times that this year alone.
[doublepost=1458431110][/doublepost]

true.
we all did that... i bought a boatload at 10 and sold at 20.... felt perry Fing good about myself, at the time...
but those days are gone, and i do not believe ETH's story can play out the same way, i guess it could, but it won't....
Alts will come and go, and there fearlessness will allow them to boldly go where no crypto has gone before, but what are we trying to do here??? do we value what's new hip and happening? or do we value security, recognizability.
above all else, i want a crypto that does one thing and does it well, HODLs value.

Yeah, we all had a chance, and we all blew it. I like to think that there's an opportunity for me in this new crypto landscape but there's probably not. Just cuz I was lucky once doesn't mean I'll be lucky again.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin Explanation

 

[blackspidy]

Yeah, I got nothing to do for about a week. Haven't had anything to do for a week. So this little drop got me a bit spooked, that spike showed me a nice glimpse at some favorable movement.

 

[shmadz]

Ok spidy, looks like you're in a perfect position to do some speculating. Me? I can't do it, at least not optimally. I can't sit around and watch the charts, so I can't take advantage of the fast moves, check xcp and ltbc for last week. Both made amazing moves and both I missed selling at the top because I avoid the exchange risk of holding long term asks.

If you have the free time to actively monitor your positions, then good luck sir . if, like me, you don't have the time to actively watch your positions then I would recommend sticking with the fundamentals and playing the boring long game