Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[Inca]

I am invested both in Bitcoin and the alternative cryptocurrencies. As prices jump up and down my portfolio overall stays relatively stable. I think this is the best way to be, I am relaxed. If it is Bitcoin up and altcoins down I do well, if it is Bitcoin down and altcoins up I also do well. So instead of cheering that Ethereum goes down I am somewhat neutral on the matter, my preference is that everything goes up and that everyone wins.

I wasn't cheering ethereum going down. I own ethereum. The losses i hold there are pared by litecoin gains

Only 4800 coins on the visible order book to $500 dollars on bitfinex.

 

[freetrader]

KNC down - damn.

Unless some other miner steps in, Classic hashrate will now slowly drop off and the only remedy will be a non-Core hardfork.

@Jihan : are you willing to put action behind your words to hold Core to its commitments?

 

[VeritasSapere]

@Bagatell Yeah exactly, a well hedged portfolio is great, it totally protects against these type of movements.

@Inca Fair enough, I hold over thirty different cryptocurrencies, but I do not hold any Litecoin since Litecoin is not innovative at all. I also cringe when I see Litecoin going up, it really is not deserving of its market cap. Though I do expect Litecoin to continue to play this role for some time still going forward.

It is a shame to see KNC go, they where one of the last big miners that really supported the cause of on chain scaling.

@cypherdoc The latest generation of ASIC's should still do well even after the halving. I do wonder though how much of the current hashpower is still based off old equipment.

I mention the diversity of my portfolio because I do not want you all to think I am just pumping the altcoins with some of the things that I am saying here. I do thoroughly believe however that we will be moving into a future where there will be several dominant cryptocurrencies regardless of what happens to Bitcoin. I just do not think it is realistic to think that we will be all be able to find agreement around a single ledger considering all of the diversity in the world.

 

[Melbustus]

....litecoin gains
...

Yuck. How do you look your friends/family in the eye?

 

[Bagatell]

@Melbustus

you can't let your own ideological "certainties" get in the way of your investing.

 

[cypherdoc]

starting to make some real hay here:

 

[freetrader]

Someone has a knack for the perverse:

"Lightning C prototype v0.3: "Nakamoto's Genesis Coins"

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/lightning-dev/2016-May/000542.html

 

[Melbustus]

@Melbustus

If you're referring to my litecoin post, it's not ideology; it's my 'fundamentals' analysis. Granted it could be wrong, but I'm certainly going to let my analysis determine the positions I take.

FWIW, I've never been much of a short-term trader, so if you're referring to short-term technicals, I have limited opinion there.

Edit: wording

 

[cypherdoc]

if you look carefully, you'll be able to see why i think these 2 charts are topping out together:

 

[Melbustus]

@Melbustus

Id bet both S3052 and Tuur both follow this thread, especially since Tuur was one of my long term subs. Then, if you count those 4 you listed plus me, that only makes 5 of us

Ok, so that's five influencers off the top of my head. There a number of more influencers who've been in a bullish state for a while, plus all the followers.

seriously though, you can't let your own ideological "certainties" get in the way of your investing. Despite all the problems, I let my intuition and experience with technicals rule the day.

Fair. Unfortunately I'm bad at short-term analysis (or just don't find it terribly interesting/satisfying to spend time thinking about, really), so I rely on fundamentals more. And obviously I think the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed since average demand for blockspace has gotten close to MAX_BLOCK_SIZE. But, as I've previously noted, I *still* think being long Bitcoin is a +EV position, so my holdings haven't changed.

I'd even say what most ppl around here don't want to hear. Id be ok with a SWHF of a+b<=4MB. That way we get our block limit increase to 4MB, the HF, and free unsubsidized regular and SW tx's which could compete on a level playing field to see if LN really is what the market wants. SW has alot of nice features. So in that sense you have to question how militant we want to be here.

I'd be ok with that too, and I agree that segwit has a number of nice features and is fundamentally an elegant design. Also agree that layer-2 solutions are fine, and probably needed longrun. But I consider baking incentivization thereof into the protocol to be a fundamental assault to bitcoin, which a price rally is not going to solve for me.

So I'm going to remain "militant" about the idea of keeping central and deliberate engineering of Bitcoin's non-supply economic properties out of the codebase. It begins to seriously degrade the entire purpose of Bitcoin - low-friction p2p money - and clearly if that gets degraded, the investment thesis changes too.

 

[VeritasSapere]

If you're referring to my litecoin post, it's not ideology; it's my 'fundamentals' analysis. Granted it could be wrong, but I'm certainly going to let my analysis determine the positions I take.

FWIW, I've never been much of a short-term trader, so if you're referring to short-term technicals, I have limited opinion there.

Edit: wording

I agree with @Melbustus here, for long term investment, it is better to invest in the fundamentals. Litecoin certainly fails when it comes down to the fundamental analysis, it is certainly not innovative. I could certainly as well be wrong in terms of price because in many ways it depends on what other people think, value often being derived from believe.

However it is not wrong to profit from trading on the markets, even if you do not entirely believe in some of these projects. I have a very small investment in Ripple for instance, and I certainly do not believe in Ripple, I even bought a small amount of Lisk after the price crash, and I expect that project to fail, or at least not be able to compete against Ethereum directly. So you should still be able to look your friends/family in the eyes, I certainly still can.

 

[Inca]

Yuck. How do you look your friends/family in the eye?

It is a temporary speculative position. If this is a bitcoin bubble then it will probably and illogically rise commensurately more. Don't hate me

 

[cypherdoc]

So I'm going to remain "militant" about the idea of keeping central and deliberate engineering of Bitcoin's non-supply economic properties out of the codebase. It begins to seriously degrade the entire purpose of Bitcoin - low-friction p2p money - and clearly if that gets degraded, the investment thesis changes too.

as you should and so will i. that's why i continue to argue against things the way they are now hopefully to change things for the better.

 

[satoshis_sockpuppet]

Hm. KNC out of business is bad news. Back to 0.1 % Classic blocks. Does anybody has an idea where their hardware may go?
Isn't this an opportunity to create a Scandinavian mining pool for Bitcoin mining electric heating units? @Norway Afaik you guys still heavily use electric heating in your rural areas (anywhere outside inner city Oslo )? Isn't that a good way of making money by having a warm home?

Apart from that, all this still screams for a PoW fork, ready asap. With @rocks mysteriously disappeared, anybody still on board?

 

[AdrianX]

@cypherdoc

It's the ol' reddit bump.

@awemany

Honey Badger had to face the governance challenge sooner or later. If it had been later it would be even worse. Bitcoin must have every conceivable attack launched at it in order to be immune to every conceivable attack. We knew this coming in. Every vexacious, vicious, manipulative, VC-backed everything...every single thing and every single personality we are dealing with had to hit Bitcoin sooner or later.

Sometimes things hit sooner than we'd like, or all at once in a perfect storm (did you see my Balrog post a few days ago?), just by random variance, and at those times we get closer to existential crisis than we're comfortable with. The binary bet just intensifies: price bottled like microwaved champagne,* greater chance of explosive meltdown to zero, but stellar spurt upward if the blockage gives way first.

It only seems like it is dragging on forever with so many broken promises because we were so proactive in worrying about it so far in advance. Honey Badger looks up with a bored expression and says, "Yeah I see there's a landmine on the road up ahead. Do you think I won't swerve in time?"

*WARNING: Never microwave champagne. You will likely be killed in seconds if you are anywhere nearby. (Seriously.)

another awesome post, just quoting for reference, still I'm rather surprised at how full blocks are I have coins that have not confirmed after 12hrs. if this is a hit at what's to come with the next bump we're screwed .

ps. I'm totally going to microwave champaign after reading that.
[doublepost=1464376934][/doublepost]

that and maybe the news that KNC are going bankrupt just gave some perspective on how hard it is to get bitcoin implying its really cheap right now.

 

[Norway]

@satoshis_sockpuppet
Yes, we use a lot of electricity for heating in Norway, both in rural areas and in Oslo. AFAIK, Sturle, the biggest dealer of bitcoin in Norway (we don't have a proper exchange yet) is heating his house with old mining hardware

EDIT: But I really hated the news that KnC is bancrupt. Sam Cole is very cool, and they mine Classic in a huge helicopter hangar in Boden, Sweden.

 

[awemany]

@chriswilmer : Wasn't it you who said a while ago "It feels like the wrong party is winning?"

I am definitely at that point now.

All that is left now - with KnC gone - is Core and a bunch of miners liking shady backroom deals and broken promises...

 

[freetrader]

Hm. KNC out of business is bad news.
[...]
Apart from that, all this still screams for a PoW fork, ready asap. With @rocks mysteriously disappeared, anybody still on board?

Not only on board, but very much swayed in favor of preferring a POW fork now that there is little to no reliable "friendly hashpower". But still committed to producing a non-POW fork at roughly the same time.
What would be really helpful is if some experienced eyes could take a close look at @rocks' scrypt hash code and compare to other sources, provide some review.

The changes are mainly in the added files in src/crypto/ and the modified src/hash.* :

https://github.com/satoshisbitcoin/satoshisbitcoin/commit/e9af835faa79ab416a41ae6fa0c9d5aee08d22c5

I also need to gather more seed node addresses for public testing (primarily static IPs at first, but even better if you can run a DNS seed). For seeds I will only accept trusted contacts that I've met and got to know on this forum or others I trust, so direct message me on here if you think you can help with running a node during tests.

In terms of static seeds, I have some IPv4's, but it would be best to get some IPv6's and onion addresses configured in.

It will still be a while before we can start public testing, unfortunately, since there is still a bunch of private testing and work I have to do around clean transaction separation, difficulty algo tuning and then the POW code integration and testing. I will make more announcements when the public testing phase kicks off.

 

[Norway]

@awemany
It isn't that bad. We just need a significant drop in price to make miners remove the artificial limit. And the drop will come at some point. Because 1mb is not substainable, it's allready full.

 

[AdrianX]

@cypherdoc - on short timescales, I agree with most of that. ETH, Coinbase, etc, certainly hit people's short term opinions. But still, for a couple months, many longtime bitcoin folks (Gallipi, s3052, Tuur, Barry, Vinny, etc) have all been calling for a massive rally probably leading to ATHs. Many people *have* been pointing to the longterm chart setup for months now. So that's where I'm coming from re "one side of the boat", and I'm therefore a bit skeptical when bulls get quite brazen publicly one morning due to a 4% bump.

FWIW, despite hodling, if this rally materializes in full (w/o proper resolution to blocksize), it's going to drag me kicking and screaming, since I think it'd be interpreted as market *support* for Core dev.

Yesterday I woke up from what I thought was a disturbing dream, it left me feeling a bit uncomfortable. Anyway I looked at the internet and did a search (became an overnight dream analysis expert) believe it or not there is a whole cacophony of dream analysis out there, puts bitcoin price analysis to shame.

anyway the surprising thing was from bothe a contemporary and an eastern perspective my dream implies pending good fortune. note my correlated exuberance when the price of bitcoin went up a few percent, my dream logic said this is it!