Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[freetrader]

Given the close correlation and no other news, I think we can say beyond reasonable doubt that this breakout is the direct effect of Jihan's statement that Chinese miners will force a seg wit for 2MB compromise...

Well, the other delightful news was that everyone could see Blockstream/Core employees spamming /r/Bitcoin with useless circlejerk about low-priority BIPs instead of addressing the real issues:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4l7hrs/rbitcoin_sure_seems_awfully_spammy_right_now/?ref=share&ref_source=link

And that's apart from Maxwell's Meltdown yesterday. I guess that predicates worse things to come for Blockstream/Core, news to which the market might react favorably.

 

[awemany]

My opinion:

I see nothing positive about all this. The miners are building - as I said - another big-blocks-could- happen-soon-optimism cycle. @Jihan talks (but no action - as usual) and the price rises, clearly due to his talk.

The prices rises and Core cashes in the creds of the price rise with saying 'see everything's just working perfectly, price rise confirms our approach'.

Meanwhile, Jihan reacts, backpedals a bit and appeases Core (also due to the price action). After a short while, the price drops down again, as people are realizing that they have been played.

.. And another wave of people is so frustrated that they leave Bitcoin for good.

Really fucking great play at work.

We had that same pattern before. Multiple times.

Oh, and: If we get big blocks only in 2017, Bitcoin is as good as dead.

I do not own any Ethereum and I do not think it is a better idea (on a technical and parameter level) than Bitcoin. But I am definitely jealous of the much less toxic atmosphere in all parts of it and the influx of fresh minds and ideas that it gets at the moment.

We're not only stuck with Greg, we have the army of dipshits and Adam as an older character copy of Greg. And we have luminaries such as Luke-Jr (The sun around the Earth), a guy who V. Buterin explicitely wanted to exclude from having a say in Ethereum development. For a damn good reason.

All that is happening here is those guys getting more and more and more entrenched.

 

[Bagatell]

@awemany I said it on reddit and I'll say it here too - I think you're missing the wood for the trees. Only two things matter. TXs and price.

 

[solex]

41 blocks in a row near the limit. FFS, and the Coreblockers think this is OK for another year??
There is zero scope for new users without old users having txn throughput problems,

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413612 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 09:35:40 AntPool 000000000000000000bf41db5845c121b1385f2549e2974facdb882b6c65c326 998.18
413611 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 09:32:04 F2Pool 0000000000000000000d2b2626e964d162ba81152c0850f8513f83dcf229d72e 999.78
413610 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 09:30:48 BitFury 000000000000000001aa48f33a6e1df032f6a27861893845d4a50557258864e4 998.01
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413608 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 08:30:52 AntPool 000000000000000001fb9b68ddb473d3a8e664c1d48e9c4dc1a37e74cac19b7a 997.88
413607 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 08:25:21 AntPool 0000000000000000053a3aaca1a498b4d5a17430cc33361b4529f07b18348a0e 998.15
413606 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 08:19:07 Slush 00000000000000000184eea17df96d0e3006c1ab3f94509635329c743bab00d8 998.17
413605 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 08:18:39 F2Pool 000000000000000003950fc848794117e7eaed773a1c43f48b1021fc18f3fa33 999.79
413604 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 08:04:23 F2Pool 000000000000000000e7075fd52be618d335235539a333b691f527d86ae15752 999.97
413603 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 08:01:27 BTCC Pool 000000000000000002f31c8944dafe19b077e0fd27a2e89b3dedd311494194dc 989.25
413602 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 07:56:36 BitClub Network 0000000000000000028571b3661b76f487f162d2bab692ee8f7fa6bbbc5fa18b 998.1
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413600 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 07:41:43 AntPool 000000000000000003bfc5b5f6d85bab153fc8a1cb46655941d6ec69620a8735 998.1
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413598 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 06:37:19 AntPool 000000000000000004b5b3d671d7b9fc6d65d0fd95059d42ed1d57c25dc82b23 998.07
413597 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 06:33:27 BitClub Network 0000000000000000028da46d08160cbb42b57ae5b150fa8051f6519016319c95 997.95
413596 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 06:26:32 Kano CKPool 00000000000000000421f8ccd969931b073d5b3cd3f07815451058a624971aac 988.05
413595 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 06:16:50 AntPool 00000000000000000266cecca7fa7f8747bb5dd3907a67c7011cd57810bd8885 998.11
413594 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 06:10:05 BTCC Pool 000000000000000002458a4414274fcb44b3721c4888ef5228bc3a52d502fa82 989.16
413593 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 05:42:51 BTCC Pool 000000000000000004bf49da8522662ec7ad32b8efd3dbfa0db2504aecae709c 989.1
413592 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 05:38:58 AntPool 000000000000000000e65fadc6aebf074c9f1688191a3fe1592098d535036efb 998.12
413591 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 05:34:50 Slush 0000000000000000007e8460e98286fc292823d80c8b8fc341c666ee1812a75e 998.13
413590 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 05:26:39 AntPool 00000000000000000514572d1f4d9e3a3215ef1735ea3e56d9827dfbc7e0d4d9 998.19
413589 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 05:16:48 F2Pool 000000000000000000bf7e1d44c9c0dbd60601565be6bdb0021fd0e516735558 999.82
413588 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 04:13:53 Slush 00000000000000000530027481542ae4b6fe2749c8540b633228fe7e6828baf3 998.17
413587 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 03:49:00 KnCMiner 000000000000000000135438ef91d59aad5fd12d03a5321a5b0d0ed478d6b5dc 930.13
413586 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 03:40:57 BW.COM 0000000000000000024e8f8ca2179b7241a275b4d9df9da37262c988e882033d 998.13
413585 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 03:37:39 1Hash 000000000000000001ea6502e917e74a3b6db11e46e13662931a6d2786b32c4a 998.19
413584 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 03:13:24 F2Pool 0000000000000000022283ace3d826e76c7c862c056ba8be8580285b3f2fe5fa 999.98
413583 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 02:57:10 Kano CKPool 000000000000000001bbcc9cb7b7128eb6e9a0a3d65a5236725e49c059a96515 987.93
413582 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 02:55:56 F2Pool 0000000000000000034fde7ab75d55244f96a35dc9cb220fadebf252b65ea309 999.9
413581 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 02:46:30 AntPool 000000000000000005703ec8ccc5365ab7543525407e8ee0ff5594bc43521aa3 998.08
413580 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 02:44:13 BitFury 0000000000000000048953c1bfc056e99c66d271d9d0dcb3511a35708705f49b 998.13
413579 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 02:19:41 BTCC Pool 000000000000000002229858e23c0f9240f6c1f90a0d52a4a641f654ac8407c7 989.04
413578 (Main Chain) 2016-05-27 01:46:17 F2Pool 0000000000000000044407cb50f789654ad2213822e250796349f749f1c1dda6 999.98

 

[albin]

All I can think of is Btcdrak about a year ago going around everywhere he could criticizing Gavin as "painting a frame" that "the sky is falling", more or less gaslighting anybody out there making any kind of projection.

I very sincerely doubt he's going to make any kind of apology now that it's obvious that Gavin and Hearn were pretty much on target in what amounts to simply being able to look at a graph accurately!

 

[awemany]

@awemany I said it on reddit and I'll say it here too - I think you're missing the wood for the trees. Only two things matter. TXs and price.

So far, I have not seen the Bitcoin ecosystem getting saner over time. And blocksize is an issue that absolutely needs to be solved in time to cut off the competition. And as you say that TXs are a factor - that's directly the blocksize issue.

Do you remember the good old times (TM) on /r/Bitcoin, way before the blocksize was actually an issue? When there was actual, honest discussion, no censorship,when people had a grasp and when most understood Bitcoin, including the economic aspect - as what it is, a self-reinforcing market phenomenon.

When almost everyone was onboard with a timely capacity increase? Do you remember the optimism and the creativity?

Those times are long past.

The censorship and the morons won a lot of ground for not only 'smallish blockism' (e.g. keeping a limit in place) but outright, idiotic small-1MB-blockism of the Gregonomics style.

I do not see that changing, I rather see it accelerating. The sane people are driven out. And the spineless miners - apparently wholly unaligned to Bitcoin's success - accelerate this process.

 

[Bagatell]

My glass is more than half full since I got involved with Bitcoin. Let's see who is still standing at the end of the night.

 

[solex]

@awemany
One of the first things I learned about Bitcoin was the honey badger meme. Something that just kept going no matter what was thrown at it. Well, somehow BTC has attracted a number of individuals most toxic to any team-work (I won't name them now, they are mentioned in many places already). They are the antithesis of Satoshi and Gavin who attracted talent and made teamwork truly happen, delivering what the users wanted.

If honey badger has an Achilles Heel, it is in concentrated centralization of development which is now off the rails. Coming out the other end of this test means the sky is the limit.

We have seen a sharp rally after the longest period of consolidation. If the Chinese miners and a marginalized Classic & BU have to smash the centralized dev issue to make scaling possible then we should see some amazing yo-yo action in the price.

 

[awemany]

If the Chinese miners and a marginalized Classic & BU have to smash the centralized dev issue to make scaling possible then we should see some amazing yo-yo action in the price.

If. Should.

Do you remember - just those discussed on this very thread here alone - the huge number of times promises were made, broken, retracted, and so forth?

I am simply not optimistic anymore. I see a bittersweet failure ahead, first slow and then accelerated yielding to alts. Bitcoin was an interesting experiment. However, Human stupidity is boundless.

I have made an (completely irrational you might say) vow to stick to my remaining few BTC no matter what. Those will probably lose most of their value - yet they'll have a special value to myself - and only myself of one day being able to say: See, kids, awemany was part of this Bitcoin experiment once, too.

That's the bitter part.

The sweet part - is seeing the gmax and adam3us ship going down with it. It is crystal clear who'll get blamed and be deemed responsible for this epic failure.

Then - and that will be at a time when Bitcoin failed already - I'll also finally put some popcorn into the microwave and -with that slightly bitter and numb feeling of 'such is life' in the background- still try to thoroughly enjoy the show.

 

[albin]

How curious that when it comes to grasping at straws to FUD hardforking, Maxwell & co. are suddenly the most extreme pro-zero conf proponents that could conceivably exist, as long as those tx's are nlocktime and not propagated to the network whatsoever!

 

[cypherdoc]

103 visitors viewing? WTF is this?
[doublepost=1464351017][/doublepost]That's priceless

How curious that when it comes to grasping at straws to FUD hardforking, Maxwell & co. are suddenly the most extreme pro-zero conf proponents that could conceivably exist, as long as those tx's are nlocktime and not propagated to the network whatsoever!

 

[Bagatell]

@cypherdoc

 

[cypherdoc]

You know, I've always said, "most people investing in cryptocurrencies are going to lose money" .

Maybe we design the HF to specifically invalidate BS nlocktimes :/

How curious that when it comes to grasping at straws to FUD hardforking, Maxwell & co. are suddenly the most extreme pro-zero conf proponents that could conceivably exist, as long as those tx's are nlocktime and not propagated to the network whatsoever!

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

@cypherdoc

It's the ol' reddit bump.

@awemany

Honey Badger had to face the governance challenge sooner or later. If it had been later it would be even worse. Bitcoin must have every conceivable attack launched at it in order to be immune to every conceivable attack. We knew this coming in. Every vexacious, vicious, manipulative, VC-backed everything...every single thing and every single personality we are dealing with had to hit Bitcoin sooner or later.

Sometimes things hit sooner than we'd like, or all at once in a perfect storm (did you see my Balrog post a few days ago?), just by random variance, and at those times we get closer to existential crisis than we're comfortable with. The binary bet just intensifies: price bottled like microwaved champagne,* greater chance of explosive meltdown to zero, but stellar spurt upward if the blockage gives way first.

It only seems like it is dragging on forever with so many broken promises because we were so proactive in worrying about it so far in advance. Honey Badger looks up with a bored expression and says, "Yeah I see there's a landmine on the road up ahead. Do you think I won't swerve in time?"

*WARNING: Never microwave champagne. You will likely be killed in seconds if you are anywhere nearby. (Seriously.)

 

[freetrader]

That's priceless

That reminds me of that one time a bank locked up my funds...
[doublepost=1464351916][/doublepost]

Maybe we design the HF to specifically invalidate BS nlocktimes :/

No, the satisfaction of proving them wrong yet again would be far greater.

So this needs to be tested.

 

[cypherdoc]

 

[Melbustus]

...isn't that just beautiful. so many bulls left behind
...

I always just hodl (Core hasn't shaken my coins from me....yet), but I can't help but be a little disturbed when the vast majority of the community is on the same side of the boat. Woke up to Bitcoin +4% today, and twitter is full of long-time Bitcoin folks preducting all-time-highs in short order. Isn't that reminiscent
[doublepost=1464354299][/doublepost]Also, Litecoin is up today significantly *relative to Bitcoin*, which always causes me sufficient disgust that I need some immediate heartburn medication.

 

[cypherdoc]

@Melbustus
yeah, but just yesterday morning, everybody was on the other side of the boat. Seriously. This thread and everywhere else was gloomy. The poll above is at 50:50 (yes, gloomy).

Even when the rally started, all of reddit and here was stunned. No "to the Moon" threads popping up anywhere until deep into it. And then, I only saw one. I thought I was talking to myself.

Look at all the bulls who've openly capitulated and are actually trying to talk bitcoin down. The rise of eth had a lot to do with it too. Look at coinbase and Ehrsam. The bad news goes on and on. I get it.

I wish we had our own version of a bull bear ratio. I bet it was near an all time low. And that despite the presence of a bullish chart.
[doublepost=1464355173][/doublepost]This is Bitcoins version of doing the opposite of what you think it's supposed to do.

Honey Badger much?
[doublepost=1464356064,1464355053][/doublepost]Furthermore, that down stroke from several days ago that appeared to break the small bull triangle I'd been talking about panicked alot of folks too. To me, it looked manipulated, which made me wait. Glad I did.

 

[Aquent]

Will be interesting to see what happens with the price. Bitcoin is currently running at 3.70 txs per second. Almost 20mb of txs are waiting and fees of almost 3btc... https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/

 

[Melbustus]

@cypherdoc - on short timescales, I agree with most of that. ETH, Coinbase, etc, certainly hit people's short term opinions. But still, for a couple months, many longtime bitcoin folks (Gallipi, s3052, Tuur, Barry, Vinny, etc) have all been calling for a massive rally probably leading to ATHs. Many people *have* been pointing to the longterm chart setup for months now. So that's where I'm coming from re "one side of the boat", and I'm therefore a bit skeptical when bulls get quite brazen publicly one morning due to a 4% bump.

FWIW, despite hodling, if this rally materializes in full (w/o proper resolution to blocksize), it's going to drag me kicking and screaming, since I think it'd be interpreted as market *support* for Core dev.