Coronavirus: COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown

[AdrianX]

Non-action only makes sense if the data supports it.

This is the political ideology of the central planners. It's flawed in principle. One does not know what data is relevant until after the fact and then after the fact one spends all their intellect justifying why centralized planning was more effective than laissez-faire.

 

[KoKansei]

The numbers in China are almost certainly a gross fabrication. The only question is exactly how far off the official numbers are.

Wuhan residents estimate region's coronavirus death toll much higher than reported

I guess the CCP figures if they can get away with causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents during the cultural revolution and Tiananmen, then they can get away with covering up potentially more than 50,000 extra deaths from this whole fiasco. I wonder if the cost of such a charade will be worth it for them. Presumably they feel very secure in their ability to manipulate the flow of information within their borders.

 

[cypherblock]

This is the political ideology of the central planners. It's flawed in principle. One does not know what data is relevant until after the fact and then after the fact one spends all their intellect justifying why centralized planning was more effective than laissez-faire.

I posted a picture of some of the data that is relevant.

 

[AdrianX]

@cypherblock Perspective is everything. Use your data to preserve life, I'll use mine. Death is 100% guaranteed we all die. Each of us is responsible for our health not a central authority.

You're using the wrong data if you think people should not thake responsibly for their wellbeing. We or an authority dont need to take action to prolong the lives of those who inevitably pass.

If my lack of understanding or cooperation is a problem you're using the wrong model or the wrong data.

This is the political ideology of the central planners. It's flawed in principle. One does not know what data is relevant until after the fact and then after the fact one spends all their intellect justifying why centralized planning was more effective than laissez-faire.

Whatever happens we will cellebrite our central planners for saving us and taking action.

The reality is the laissez-faire option would have resolved in the free market reacting appropriately to the severity of the problem as and when necessary.

Those at greater risk would not need to be disenfranchised they'd have knowledge and be in a position to isolate themselves from us and then assess the herd amunity risk in time, with no risk or experience to the majority.

 

[Zarathustra]

I posted a picture of some of the data that is relevant.

You posted bullshit data. The data is not based on total infected people, it's based on people tested positive(!) in Italy and China. Italy and China!

You don't calculate on the basis of bullshit, when you have much more representative data from Iceland, Princess Diamond, or the town Vo in Italy, where all 3300 inhabitants have been tested and where 3 percent of the population already had been infected in early March, and where all of them recovered.

Your data:

Survey method

We start with the currently available mortality rates by age bracket out of China and Italy.

We assume that age is an independent risk factor with 50% of the total weight, so its value is divided by 2.

Then we compute the percentage with at least one chronic condition that has been identified as a COVID-19 risk factor. (There are not yet available data on compounding probabilities of multiple chronic conditions on mortality rates, so we stopped with one.)

Then we multiplied the chronic condition rate by .08 for each age category. (In China, the relevant comorbidities elevate mortality rates from about 1% among those with zero conditions to 6% to 10% for those with at least one.)

Then we add the expected age resultant cases to the chronic conditions resultant cases for each age bracket to reach our population counts.

 

[cypherblock]

You posted bullshit data. The data is not based on total infected people, it's based on people tested positive(!) in Italy and China. Italy and China!

When I was talking about data needed I was referring to this picture, from this article:

The other article posted on Gallup.com, I posted is not MY data. It is why we need the data above to provide an alternative. It paints a more dire picture and my exact point was:

So knowing to what extent this is just "fear" and bullshit and what extent it is likely (should Covid-19 continue to spread), is critical.

So I have no problem if you want to criticize the Gallup data, just don't call it MINE. It was written by DAN WITTERS AND SANGEETA AGRAWAL.

 

[cypherblock]

We have these numbers from Iceland. And before you want to shut down the supply chains with bullshit data, you should present real data, as Iceland is doing.

Like I said the focus should be on gathering the correct data. That you think Iceland and DP have all the data required is where we differ. I support the approach taken by Iceland to do this testing. Other countries should take similar action. The infection appears to spread and behave differently in different countries.

As I mentioned before, I have not seen a good write up from deCode genetics on the Iceland "study" and what I did see indicated only small % of population has been exposed. In fact it seems the number of exposed has changed from something like 1% to 6%, but sadly I have not found an official report, only press. Please post if there is any scientific writeup on this. The most interesting data is likely the % of cases that are severe vs not. But again this should be replicated elsewhere.

Also you feel like the people by themselves can take all the needed precautions to slow down the spread. But while it would be great if everyone did all that was required on their own, it paints an imprecise picture to just "let people do it themselves".

One person can look at the Iceland data and say, "99% of symptoms are mild, so just go to the bars and wash your hands a bit, this is nothing", while another person might say, "only 1% of people are infected, this is going to be huge, let's all stay home".

Sadly we don't have a good consensus mechanism in place for this. That does not mean I support all actions of governments. Not everything is binary.

 

[AdrianX]

You posted bullshit data.

I didn't share data I shared an idea. A while back someone posted an interview of a doctor leaving a hospital in New York. He said exactly what I was thinking only he did not understand the role he was playing where people were dying. It's the same reason why some random doctor posts his statistics and why 100% of his patents are surviving.

The death rate has little to do with the virus, and more to do with your medical system.

People who look at limited data sets can only see the data in those data sets, you need to be a creative not an analyst to know what data is relevant.

The problem is central planning happens with limited or inaccurate data.

 

[Zarathustra]

Like I said the focus should be on gathering the correct data. That you think Iceland and DP have all the data required is where we differ.

Iceland, DP and the town Vo' in Italy have the better data than everyody else, and all of them show similar numbers. They have the most representative data, and when you have to decide whether we have to shut down and the bankrupt the economies or not, then you do it on the basis of the best data we have. End then, when you analyse these data sets, you don't decide to put the whole society at risk and bankrupt countries like Italy and Spain.

As I mentioned before, I have not seen a good write up from deCode genetics on the Iceland "study" and what I did see indicated only small % of population has been exposed. In fact it seems the number of exposed has changed from something like 1% to 6%, but sadly I have not found an official report, only press.

What? Rather 0,6 %

Data

Latest updates on confirmed infections, the number of people in quarantine or isolation, and more.

www.covid.is

Please post if there is any scientific writeup on this. The most interesting data is likely the % of cases that are severe vs not. But again this should be replicated elsewhere.

As I already mentioned, in that town in Italy all 89 infected people recovered within a short time.
You cannot shut down economies and societies until it is confirmed a hundred times by the slow ones.

Also you feel like the people by themselves can take all the needed precautions to slow down the spread. But while it would be great if everyone did all that was required on their own, it paints an imprecise picture to just "let people do it themselves".

If I have to choose between

A) let happen that new flu version and
B) bankrupt whole nations or more

I choose A, because B is infinitely more dangerous.

 

[cypherblock]

What? Rather 0,6 %

The page shows 1086 infected with 16484 total samples or 6.58% of tested had infections.

But regardless it seems like iceland data shows low % severity of illness, which is great. This is why the random testing is needed elsewhere. I would not be willing to risk 10s-100s of thousands of lives on Iceland data where no report that I can find has been published.

Iceland has still enacted shutdown of various businesses : All swimming pools, museums, libraries and bars closed, as did any businesses requiring a proximity of less than 2 m (hairdressers, tattoo artists, etc.). And in some areas are under other quarantine measures (don't leave home, etc).

Leaving people to do this themselves could lead to similar outcome. You don't automatically get more commerce just by letting everyone police themselves (but I admit that is a likely out come as well as further and more rapid spread of illness).

 

[Norway]

7 days prediction:
Corona Collapsing, Bitcoin UP!

 

[Zarathustra]

The page shows 1086 infected with 16484 total samples or 6.58% of tested had infections.

Their first calculations assumed 1% positive of the population.
That's a bit lower now.

But regardless it seems like iceland data shows low % severity of illness, which is great. This is why the random testing is needed elsewhere. I would not be willing to risk 10s-100s of thousands of lives on Iceland data where no report that I can find has been published.

You are willing to risk millions or billions (Ioannidis) of lives on the basis of bullshit data, while there are representative datasets from different locations.

Iceland has still enacted shutdown of various businesses : All swimming pools, museums, libraries and bars closed, as did any businesses requiring a proximity of less than 2 m (hairdressers, tattoo artists, etc.). And in some areas are under other quarantine measures (don't leave home, etc).

Yes, that's the problem. Like you, the authorities and its advisors are willing to bankrupt the whole society and risk the lives of everybody to save a few. The medicine is orders of magnitude more dangerous than the flu itself.

 

[Zarathustra]

7 days prediction:
Corona Collapsing, Bitcoin UP!

Yes, the flu season usually ends in April when people leave their homes where the transmission is greatest due to the low humidity in the rooms. Open windows, sun and fresh air cure the flu. Unfortunately, the forced quarantine is now delaying this.

 

[cypherblock]

You are willing to risk millions or billions (Ioannidis) of lives on the basis of bullshit data, while there are representative datasets from different locations.

I haven't seen anyone but you talk about millions or billions of deaths from shutdowns. If "loannidis" has published something share the link.

You keep saying "you are willing..." but this is false and we've been through this a million times. I support social distancing (as do you apparently) and some short lived shutdowns of some business while data is gathered and wider testing is brought into action. The rest can largely be voluntary. We've been through this. That the testing of the right kind is not being prioritized I see as a big failing at the moment.

Your 'laissez faire' zero government action would result in the same economic slowdown in many cases, just in a more ad hoc way. In places where the virus is hitting hard, people will stop going out to eat, stop going to bars, etc.

The repeated claims of millions or billions at risk is not clear. Give the evidence so maybe world leaders will visit this forum and listen

 

[Bloomie]

Yes, the flu season usually ends in April when people leave their homes where the transmission is greatest due to the low humidity in the rooms. Open windows, sun and fresh air cure the flu. Unfortunately, the forced quarantine is now delaying this.

You are an exceptionally malicious troll.

 

[Zarathustra]

I haven't seen anyone but you talk about millions or billions of deaths from shutdowns. If "loannidis" has published something share the link.
(...)

The repeated claims of millions or billions at risk is not clear. Give the evidence so maybe world leaders will visit this forum and listen

I already quoted Ioannidis for you. @rocks linked it. But I can quote him again for you. And if you forget it again, I will quote it once more. Ioannidis is not stupid. He knows that you cannot shut down societies and its supply chains. He seems to know what happens if the hypercomplex power grids disappear. You seem to be one of those 99.9% who don't. You even still don't have the stomach to say whether you support the shutdown in Italy, Spain and other countries, where this shutdown leads to a guaranteed bankruptcy if you and your soulmates don't cry for a bailout.

@cypherblock and @Bloomie on the brink of another bailout celebration.

Ioannidis:

"Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake."

You are an exceptionally malicious troll.

Hi Bloomie!

Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States

Here, the authors demonstrate that variations of absolute humidity explain both the onset of wintertime influenza transmission and the overarching seasonality of this pathogen in temperate regions.

journals.plos.org

 

[lunar]

Well this thread has taken a fascinating turn the last few weeks, and a new format to boot. Nice work @Bloomie

I've been off grid and being healthy as much as possible, away from the toxic social media scene.

Thank you @Zarathustra and others for trying to talk some sense into the foul wind of political nonsense that's being spouted everywhere. Your posts have been welcome rational break, and for the most part, I whole heartedly agree.

Locking down the entire planet based on incomplete and flawed stats, in the hopes of preventing some speculative doomsday scenario, without so much as a thought to the economic dystopia governments have just unleashed, is utter madness. Those that have been arguing against, seem incapable of parsing how the 'cure' to this disaster is almost certainly going to be much much worse, than the virus itself.

Yes we get it.. dangerous, resilient, and particularly nasty bug that will likely kill a very large number of people, but there are bigger problems.
(super majority of which had pre-exisitng conditions, are over 75, and still we're looking to be less than a very bad year of influenza)

Meanwhile 1.3 billion Indians were given 4 hours to prepare for a 3 week total lockdown. How many of those were subsistence living and now going to go hungry or starve? 100's of thousands are now walking home, unable to work or feed their families.

This is just one example of a litany worldwide, and just the beginning. Each week this lockdown continues, will be exponentially damaging for years, possibly decades to come.

The Fed and others have gone QE infinity, helicopter money for the people and 1000x more for the Wall Streets crew. Modern faux-capitalism at it finest (privatise the gains, socialise the losses) 1/3 of the planet under curfew. Madness at every turn. Welcome to Orwell's 1984 and the 1920's depression combined.

So much to be said, but what's the point, none are listening, time to move to Sweden.

@Zarathustra
​

 

[cypherblock]

"Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake."

Some random quote is not going to sway an argument or convince anyone. "Entirely unknown" != death.

Not all businesses are suffering due to mandate. Your non-action approach leads to the same result in a rational population (people dying by droves in towns in Italy would hopefully be a lot less likely to hang out in bars, restaurants).

That the government issues blanket restrictions across the entire country certainly may not be warranted in all situations. Any government that is not taking careful provisions to keep supply chains open is doing it wrong. All critical infrastructure and business is open here. If Spain or Italy are stopping this then I don't support that. You live in a binary world, so simple. Time to wake up. Do nothing, social consensus doesn't always work. Gather some more data at least before you run out and go to that bar. Repeat the Iceland random testing approach in Italy, Spain, US and publish all results.. How long could it take?.

Mortality rate for Covid-19 is perhaps 6x - 10x of seasonal flu, severity rate is unclear. Better than 20x that was based only on case fatality rate, still a big increase warranting some action (also due to more rapid spread which hits hospitals hard). Do the additional testing and show that it is only 1.5x IFR of flu and that severe symptoms are only 2x of seasonal flu (when full population is accounted for) and then the do nothing approach is more warranted, but would eliminate any possibility of snuffing out the virus for good giving us that death rate for years and years to come.

 

[Zarathustra]

Some random quote is not going to sway an argument or convince anyone. "Entirely unknown" != death.

" ... and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake."

Illiterates are never convinced. This quote is an Ioannidis quote, you notorious ignoramus!

Not all businesses are suffering due to mandate. Your non-action approach leads to the same result in a rational population (people dying by droves in towns in Italy would hopefully be a lot less likely to hang out in bars, restaurants).

Without your fear porn, it would be handled as all flus (mild and sever ones) have been handled: no shutdown of the supply chains and GDP.
They would act like the people in Sweden. They would not quarantine themselves for months in buildings, which leads to a flu epidemic every winter, because of sun (Vitamin D) deficiency and low humidity in the rooms.

That the government issues blanket restrictions across the entire coAny government that is not taking careful provisions to keep supply chains open is doing it wrong.

Ridiculous polit büro central planning bullshit. As if those assholes could steer those hypercomplex supply chains, where the same companies produce parts for uncountable products. Madrid even didn't receive body bags anymore. And then the shutdown supporters and mass suicide lemmings (you et al.) scream: "Hey look at this picture!"

All critical infrastructure and business is open here. If Spain or Italy are stopping this then I don't support that.

Bla bla bla. Lockdown big parts of the whole GDP is deadly for the whole system there. You bankrupt the whole system if you lockdown big parts. All parts therefore are critical to the whole system.
Since you deny it, you show your socioeconomic knowledge.

You live in a binary world, so simple. Time to wake up. Do nothing, social consensus doesn't always work. Gather some more data at least before you run out and go to that bar.

I just hope that Sweden will be able to resist the terror of your disgusting idols.

Repeat the Iceland random testing approach in Italy, Spain, US and publish all results.. How long could it take?.

Your Orwellian upside-down suicide strategy again.
1. There is already a sample in Italy, and 2. will it be by far too late when the results of your losers finally arrive. But of course you believe the lockdown can go on for weeks and months.

Mortality rate for Covid-19 is perhaps 6x - 10x of seasonal flu, severity rate is unclear.

3 years ago it was 6x-10x of seasonal flu. Which, if the case this year too, is of course still no reason to lockdown and mass bankrupt nations and continents with "millions if not billions of lives at stake".

Millions of victims are guaranteed already with this shutdown of some weeks.

 

[Christoph Bergmann]

Yes, the insanity of our system is that my ability to buy bread depends on millions of people buying stupid things all the time.

It's a giant waste of human time and natural resources, and if our global lock down teaches us to get our daily bread a bit less weird, it will be a good thing.

But suddenly preventing people forcefully to no longer produce and consume unnecessary things will make millions no longer be able to buy bread very soon. But yeah, we can't compare lives with economics, as all the people scream to us, who don't understand how the system works.