Coronavirus: COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown

[cypherblock]

Testing and then quarantine, plus contact tracing, have always been and remain an effective way to combat spread. Only testing people that already have symptoms is going to limit the effectiveness of this (and also this limits other data that we need like %exposed, %severity, etc for entire population). On the other hand forcing people that don't want to be tested to get tested or draconian quarantine measures are things that we need to be careful of as well.

For people interested in some science, this video has some interesting, but simplistic, simulations of how disease can spread and how social distancing, quarantine, central hubs, and other variables change the spread. It is not meant to represent a world of 8 billion people, but can help gain a basic understanding of disease spread and its sensitivity to various factors. It would be pretty interesting to see if someone has every tried to model the entire world in a simulation like this.

 

[Bloomie]

I never get vaccinated against the many flu viruses. A friend of mine first did it a few years ago. Then she got the flu like never before.

Amazing. I'd say this kind of top-notch research qualifies you to be a scientist or even a medical doctor, no degree necessary. If only the rest of the scientific community had your skills and brainpower, civilization would never be in trouble again. Thank you for sharing these valuable conclusions.

 

[Zarathustra]

(emphasis added)

Let's see if the spread can be slowed down and more data can shed new light on whether this kind of shutdown is helping or even necessary.and more data can shed new light on whether this kind of shutdown is helping or even necessary.

You have it upside down. That's the problem. The clean approach would be the opposite. Let's have more data before you shut down the supply chains.

I support fully the testing that is going on (or concluded) in Iceland, but I have not seen a comprehensive report on this data, nor would I assume that Iceland is representative of the world.

Everybody supports that. But not everybody supports their shutdown before they present the data. A flu virus is not ebola.

What I did see indicated to me that a small % of Iceland has been exposed to Covid-19, but those that were exposed generally had mild symptoms (the data I've seen suggests only 2% have severe symptoms).

Iceland has double as many confirmed positive tested cases than Italy, per capita. 2% of them have been hospitalized. No problem for the hospitals. Yes, Iceland, Norway etc. are indeed not representative to compare it with the bankrupt health systems in Italy, Spain or the US.
But it should be obvious that force the economy in Italy, Spain and the US into a depression is much more dangerous to the health of the people.

I don't think we are at a point where we can take the data from Iceland and say, "ok everyone back to business as usual, go to restaurants, go to bars, stop social distancing".

Nobody demands to stop social distancing. But you indeed think that we should continue with the lockdown that neither Italy, nor Spain nor France nor dozens of other economies will be able to survive without the help and guarantee of alien economies. That's your approach, support the Chancellor on the brink of another bailout. Q.e.d.

 

[Zarathustra]

Amazing. I'd say this kind of top-notch research qualifies you to be a scientist or even a medical doctor, no degree necessary. If only the rest of the scientific community had your skills and brainpower, civilization would never be in trouble again. Thank you for sharing these valuable conclusions.

You're welcome. As is well known, medical doctors are not particularly healthy, and when I see the quantum of useless and counterproductive chemicals that are consumed in my environment on the advice of the doctor and his sponsors who increase their production year after year, I get chills.

 

[cypherblock]

But you indeed think...That's your approach...

Please enough of that. Your constant misrepresentation of others ideas or thoughts is pure trolling.

 

[Zarathustra]

You are the troll. Why are you still not able to present a clear position? I much more prefer the Japanese or Swedish approach of a non-lockdown/minimal lockdown. You never take position. You constantly defend the lockdown/bailout indirectly, but never say you support it. This blurry kind of reasoning annoys me.

 

[cypherblock]

"Kenji Shibuya, a professor at King’s College London and a former chief of health policy at the World Health Organization, sees two possibilities: that Japan has contained the spread by focusing on outbreak clusters, or that there are outbreaks yet to be found.

Both are reasonable, but my guess is that Japan is about to see the explosion and will inevitably shift from containment to delay-the-peak phase very soon,” he said. “The number of tests is increasing, but not enough.”"

Containment is great if you can pull it off and it will be good if Japan was able to do that. There are also some theories that vaccinations that Japanese have done offer some protection, as well as the societal norms offering additional protection. Sweeden may be a similar story as they have the largest number of single dwellers in Europe, as well as well covered sick leave (people just stay home if they are sick). However, even there , they are social distancing to some extent and going out less. There will still be an economic impact even if it is not government mandated.

I support temporary closure of bars, and some other mass gathering places, with most other businesses enforcing a voluntary work remote policy but where key activities can still take place on site where responsible measures are taken place. In countries that have reason to believe the spread is advancing or likely, or if society in general is not good at social distancing, more measures maybe needed. Social distancing, effective quarantine measures including contact tracing should be emphasized (while still maintaining privacy). Unlike a "do nothing" approach which is easy as hell to implement, the "do something" approach is not quite as easy.

All such closures/lockdowns should be considered temporary as more data is gathered (hopefully by random testing), and in general governments should rely on people to self enforce in some areas so that formal lockdowns are not needed. No business should be forced to entirely close if they can come up with safe alternative approaches. Scientific analysis of the situation should play a strong role in all decisions based on efforts to gather enough data and not to make decisions based on emotional hysteria (which includes the "shutdown will kill billions" hysteria as much as the "we are all going to get sick and die" hysteria).

A simple "non-lockdown" approach is irresponsible in countries unable to effectively test and quarantine and where the initial infected population was fairly large or growing rapidly, basically making effective quarantine a challenge even if the people and government are on top of the game, which many are not.

 

[Zarathustra]

Am I wrong when I find that the supporters of an unlimited Bitcoin BSV tend to be supporters of a let-it-happen / laisser fair mentality? While on the other hand the supporters of the limited BCH version at the same time support and defend excessive political interventionism and unprecedented bailouts against the flu, which - as some of us know - will just raise the free-fall height of moral hazard and debt further?
@kostialevin seems to be one of those exceptions that confirm the rule, which is not a surprise since he lives in the epicenter of this flu.

 

[Zarathustra]

A simple "non-lockdown" approach is irresponsible in countries unable to effectively test and quarantine and where the initial infected population was fairly large or growing rapidly, basically making effective quarantine a challenge even if the people and government are on top of the game, which many are not.

Another straw-man.
Every laissez-faire! supporter with half a brain demands non-lockdown, accompanied by simple hygiene measures, voluntary social distance and personal responsibility. They demand a non-lockdown, because cypherblock's countries, that are not able to test, are the least ones who will be able to survive a lockdown economically, which only can produce even more victims.
But you still deny this simple fact and obviously support The Chancellor On The Brink Of Another Bailout. Q.e.d.

Scientific analysis of the situation should play a strong role in all decisions based on efforts to gather enough data and not to make decisions based on emotional hysteria (which includes the "shutdown will kill billions" hysteria as much as the "we are all going to get sick and die" hysteria).

I would recommend the flu hysterics to study scientific analysis of a heavyweight in socio-economic science and history and not to listen to medical doctors and virologists who have no idea about it. Ioannidis seems to be someone who understands something about it.

What a majority of all kind of scientists are not familiar with: Meta-science, Tainter's law, the mother of all socio-economic laws: The Problem Solving Society is a tautology. Society = problem solving. Always confronted with a diminishing return on additional investment in additional complexity. It can only diminish until it collapses, but not further. One solved problem creates two or more additional problems. We never learn.

Spreading meta-science is called hysteria due to a lack of knowledge.

 

[kyuupichan]

If Japan has been lying, why have its hospitals not been jam-packed full like in the hypercondriac countries? Have they been covering that up too?

 

[Christoph Bergmann]

Am I wrong when I find that the supporters of an unlimited Bitcoin BSV tend to be supporters of a let-it-happen / laisser fair mentality? While on the other hand the supporters of the limited BCH version at the same time support political interventionism against the flu, which - as some of us know - will just raise the free-fall height of moral hazard and debt further?
@kostialevin seems to be one of those exceptions that confirm the rule, which is not a surprise since he lives in the epicenter of this flu.

It's very interesting. The Corona crisis is like a double testing of political preferences all over crypto sphere. It's like what do people prefer in crisis: fear or freedom. If I would do a study about bitcoiners mentality / ideology, it would give some valuable data points.

I guess if you are in Italy or Spain or New York you are more affected as when you live in a German small village like me, so it's not just inner preferences but also context.

Bsv people tend to have their own mind and some resistance against the power of social consensus, maybe with a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories or to be better wrong than with the crowd, or to believe to know it better than scientific consensus.

For example, many don't believe in climate change, which is something I have a lot of problems with.

 

[Zarathustra]

It's very interesting. The Corona crisis is like a double testing of political preferences all over crypto sphere. It's like what do people prefer in crisis: fear or freedom. If I would do a study about bitcoiners mentality / ideology, it would give some valuable data points.

I guess if you are in Italy or Spain or New York you are more affected as when you live in a German small village like me, so it's not just inner preferences but also context.

Bsv people tend to have their own mind and some resistance against the power of social consensus, maybe with a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories or to be better wrong than with the crowd, or to believe to know it better than scientific consensus.

For example, many don't believe in climate change, which is something I have a lot of problems with.

Yes, unscientific esotericism everywhere. It's a miracle ...
They don't believe in Russell's teapot, but they do believe in all kind of Gods and idols, which is no difference. The main person behind the project that you and me are supporting, is - besides other functions - also a pastor! It's a miracle ...

They do not believe that greenhouse gases reflect infrared radiation. They believe that excessive anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere (air and oceans) have no influence on that same atmospheres. It's a miracle ...

They believe that a 6-month lockdown would not result in a complete socio-economic collapse with billions of victims. It's a miracle ...

On Swiss radio and private streaming channels, they organize a 24-hour "everything will be fine" summoning concert. They believe that if they follow the leaders into the lockdown like lemmings, everything will be fine. It's a miracle...
Electricity and wages come from the socket. A majority of the leaders and their voters have never been self-employed. While believing to be part of the solution, they are part of the problem. The Principle of the Double Blind: "The blind spot: One does not see what one does not see."

At the end of they day I always end up with Roger Waters ...

 

[Zarathustra]

Wow, common sense in Sweden!

Translation:

What the virologist Christian Drosten is for Germany, is Anders Tegnell for the Swedes: The top epidemiologist in Stockholm is currently the most sought-after man in the country, omnipresent on all channels. Opinions about him and his recommendations diverge: While some trust the special corona strategy of their government and their currently most important expert, others wonder why Sweden takes a completely different line than its neighbors and EU partners. (...)

If you believe the state epidemiologist Tegnell, then the Swedish strategy will work. "We are convinced that this is the right way to go," he told SVT shortly before the weekend. In the Swedish healthcare system, people rely heavily on trust, voluntariness and finding their own solutions, he said. Tegnell, the government of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven and the health authorities largely rely on the common sense of the population, on recommendations to people over 70 to avoid close contacts, and on the trust in political decision-makers typical of the Swedes. The goals in the fight against the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus are the same as elsewhere: the spread of the virus should be slowed down so that not too many people become seriously ill at the same time and the health systems are overwhelmed. The consequences for business and citizens should also be absorbed.

However, there is an additional element in the government strategy: Corona should be taken "at the right time at the right time," it says. On Friday, Löfven announced that meetings would be limited to a maximum of 50 participants - so far, the limit was the extremely revealing number of maximum 500 participants in Corona times. Among other things, this led to the fact that up to 499 people celebrated après-ski vigorously in ski areas such as Åre until recently. Events of this size are now over. Löfven again appealed to the Swedish prudence on Friday. "We all have to take responsibility as individuals," he said - adding: "We cannot regulate and prohibit everything by law."

Schweden geht den Corona-Sonderweg

Bis vor Kurzem wurde in Schweden noch Après-Ski gefeiert, Restaurants und Cafés haben immer noch geöffnet. Trotz steigender Fälle von Covid-19-Infektionen fährt das Land eine andere Strategie als die europäischen Nachbarn: Die Regierung vertraut weitgehend auf die Vernunft der Bevölkerung.

www.n-tv.de

 

[AdrianX]

Bsv people tend to have their own mind and some resistance against the power of social consensus, maybe with a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories or to be better wrong than with the crowd, or to believe to know it better than scientific consensus.

There are many wackos in this space. BSV is a scalable Moral Hazard resistant Social Consensus, BCH offers the same to a lesser degree. BTC has lost as people can't reliably use it. Bitcoin is a PoW consensus.

I think you nailed it, it's about giving up freedom. Through that lense I can reconcile this current insanity and the resistance to colective climate action. Most people will give up a little freedom for a little security. This has been understood by just a few for centuries those that do will deserve neither and lose both.

 

[Zarathustra]

Hey @Bloomie: The lockdown stroke of genius is causing New Yorkers to leave the scene to the unfortunate who cannot disappear. Chaos inevitable. Will they ever be able to return?

New Yorkers flee to Hamptons, Catskills amid coronavirus fears

The vacation rental market is booming two months ahead of the traditional start to the summer season.

nypost.com

 

[cypherblock]

Every laissez-faire! supporter with half a brain demands non-lockdown,

Non-action only makes sense if the data supports it.

The factors driving the "fear" of Covid-19 are reports like this: https://news.gallup.com/poll/304643/million-severe-risk-infected-covid.aspx which estimate 11million people are at risk of severe illness. So knowing to what extent this is just "fear" and bullshit and what extent it is likely (should Covid-19 continue to spread), is critical. If you are against any lockdowns then help show this report is painting an highly unlikely scenario and should be dismissed.

The focus should be to answer the biggest unknowns, the most important of which is assessing how many people have actually been infected and had minimal symptoms. Knowing whether the likelihood of severity is 20% or 1% is a major difference that countries for whatever reason have not focused on sufficiently. This is the number that will tell us the ultimate impact of Covid-19 and if we really need to lockdown/shutdown at all.

From https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2002125

Additionally regarding the whole "lockdown" / "shutdown" approaches, countries that have good evidence that they have contained the virus or suspect minimal spread in their population (for whatever reason), or where they actually have good evidence of minimal severe %, obviously need not force any severe lockdowns.

 

[rocks]

Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19 - TechStartups

On March 19, we published a story about a trial study conducted by French researchers which showed a combination of Hydroxychloroquine (brand name Plaquenil) and Azithromycin to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19 patients. The study, which was led by renowned Didier Raoult M.D/Ph.D in...

techstartups.com

 

[Zarathustra]

Non-action only makes sense if the data supports it.

Are you an illiterate or what? How many times do I have to repeat that voluntary action, which is the strategy of Sweden, is not non-action?
Perhaps you are someone who doesn't act without being guided by the authorities, but common sense people do act.

The focus should be to answer the biggest unknowns, the most important of which is assessing how many people have actually been infected and had minimal symptoms. Knowing whether the likelihood of severity is 20% or 1% is a major difference that countries for whatever reason have not focused on sufficiently. This is the number that will tell us the ultimate impact of Covid-19 and if we really need to lockdown/shutdown at all.

We have these numbers from Iceland. And before you want to shut down the supply chains with bullshit data, you should present real data, as Iceland is doing.

It's a miracle. How is it possible not to see the obvious?

Karl-Heinz Leven is a professor of medical history and director of the Institute for the History and Ethics of Medicine at the University of Erlangen.

What is special about the corona pandemic?

Worldwide, millions of people have to stay in their houses and apartments, whole economies are being shut down. There is no example of this in history. We are trying to nip a pandemic in the western world with all medical and material means because we do not accept a higher death rate. It is a gigantic experiment that has never been done before.

(...)

What dangers do you see today?

Mortality will not be the problem. Something really immense and really threatening is something else: the total economic collapse that we are causing right now through the closure measures. This damage will occupy us for a long time and will have consequences, of which no one can have clear ideas today.

"Das ist ein gigantisches Experiment"

In der Geschichte gibt es hierfür kein Beispiel. Wegen der Corona-Pandemie sind Hunderte Millionen Menschen isoliert, das öffentliche Leben steht still. Seuchenhistoriker Karl-Heinz Leven sieht vor allem eine große Gefahr.

www.n-tv.de

Sorry for so many off-topic posts in these crazy times. But if we can't stop this political suicide strategy, it's indeed total economic collapse, which in fact means game over for everyone.

 

[Zarathustra]

Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19 - TechStartups

On March 19, we published a story about a trial study conducted by French researchers which showed a combination of Hydroxychloroquine (brand name Plaquenil) and Azithromycin to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19 patients. The study, which was led by renowned Didier Raoult M.D/Ph.D in...

techstartups.com

Yes, it helps increase zinc uptake in the cells. Pneumonia is often caused by zinc deficiency.
More and more horses also have lung problems because the zinc concentration in the grass has decreased significantly in recent decades.
I regularly give zinc to my horse and donkeys.

 

[kostialevin]

@kostialevin seems to be one of those exceptions that confirm the rule, which is not a surprise since he lives in the epicenter of this flu.

I'm not against nor in favor of the lockdown. This is a choice between many lives and the economy (probably many lives again).
These sort of actions cannot really be tested in different situation. Every country is different in many aspects and the spreading of a virus can behave in a strange way.. here some little villages are much more affected than Milan.
What I stress is that this is not just a bad flu. I'm not a virologist nor a doctor, but what I see and what my friends tell me from their experience inside the hospitals represents a situation really far away from the one of a flu.
Interview from Madrid and New York are the same, doctors tell about serious pneumonia, not dummy scared people that go to the hospital crying.
And the numbers China gave us seems to be wrong..