Coronavirus: COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown

[Zarathustra]

I am aware that Zangelbert Bingledack enjoys writing lengthy posts about money and bitcoin development, and sometimes he even has interesting things to say. That does not make him an authority in predicting how many people will die in a pandemic of an unknown disease. This is not the block size debate where you guys can just circle jerk, appeal to each other's authority, and feel good about yourselves. We'll listen to scientists and doctors, thanks.

Yes, we do. And there is hope that together with real scientists we can stop the suicide trip of the alarmists who call themself scientists. Tiny little Iceland is doing more relevant science in this case than the whole rest of the world.
And you can continue listening to doctors to the question 'how to manage hypercomplex society systems'.

But even in the US, there is hope:

 

[cypherblock]

A normal flu season creates around 1 million deaths.

Recent averages are 250k-500k estimated.

 

[Niner]

High consequence infectious diseases (HCID)

Guidance and information about high consequence infectious diseases and their management in England.

www.gov.uk

The BBC has not commented on this and the government has not called a press conference.

 

[cypherdoc]

fascinating

 

[Zarathustra]

The BBC has not commented on this and the government has not called a press conference.

Perhaps former Bitcoiners who suddenly morphed into supporters of the Chancellor On The Brink Of Another Bailout will comment in this thread?

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

Not more infectious than a flu (which killed 80'000 in the US alone 2 years ago)?
I disagree. It already mutated into a variant that is able to spread panic, infect brains, shut down the GDP and potentially kill the society. After infected brains shut down the GDP in Italy and Spain, they will need a bailout by Europe and the rest of the world. But who will bailout them when they are on the brink of the same suicide trip and ready to jump?

 

[Christoph Bergmann]

Yes, it is definitely much more dangerous than the flu. Never heard about that the flu caused millions of global unemployment, infected all mainstream journalists with subservient stupidity, shutdown global supply chains and brought new authoritarian bills into democratic parliaments. It was a big mistake to underestimate the virus.

 

[kostialevin]

 

[Zarathustra]

Yes, it is definitely much more dangerous than the flu. Never heard about that the flu caused millions of global unemployment, infected all mainstream journalists with subservient stupidity, shutdown global supply chains and brought new authoritarian bills into democratic parliaments. It was a big mistake to underestimate the virus.

Mortality Collapsing - Unemployment UP

Weekly update:

EURO MOMO - outputs - zscore pooled

 

[rocks]

It is interesting that people can look at the same information and have completely different take aways. At this point we only have "opinions" and there won't be harder facts on who is right till the fall.

For me all you have to do is look at that house bill to see the purpose of this panic, it is to fundamentally transform America by massively expanding the role of the government beyond its current gargantuan size.

I still have not seen specific examples of hospital over capacity, despite everyone saying so. The ground reports I see from new york where it is worst the system is still not over capacity. There are 5K hospitalized due to this and ~1K in the ICU currently. What is often missed is hospitals are a business and always keep spare capacity low, they usually run at 60% of capacity in NYC. Bad flu seasons can and do result in running out of capacity. But the system is designed for this and to rapidly grow capacity when needed, which is what has already happened in NY and elsewhere through a mix of local expansion and military actions. Its only worst case "forecasts" that predict running out of capacity, but that has yet to happen.

Every single full population study, which are the only reliable numbers, show this to be a bad flu where most people exposed do not get it, and the majority who do are asymptotic or have mild cases. There are tons of reports of an uptick in flu-like cases in Dec/Jan which were diagnosed as not the flu but a some other virus. It is highly likely the number who already had it or were exposed is much larger than the current numbers and places like NY are already peaking in this wave. 1) We know the numerator is roughly correct and 2) we know the denominator is incorrect and too low, the argument is how too low is it. As viruses go this one is hardy and can stay on surfaces for days or even weeks. That will spread wide and fast, much faster than reported.

What I think is most interesting/concerning are the growing calls for a permanent lock down until a cure is found.

What exactly will this accomplish? It won't prevent people from getting it, it just delays that. The only purpose it serves is to destroy the economy, destroy Trump's reelection chances and massively increase the number of people who depend on the government.

The coming April news cycle will be a Trump arguing to open up with the argument that time was bought to ramp up capacity, the left will explode on that with claims that Trump is literally killing people for a dollar. One side will be right and the other side will be wrong, but if you take the position that people need to stay under lockdown for a year even if it means they lose everything and it then turns out to not be that bad and we are already close to the peak, well people will notice that.

My prediction continues to be this clocks in with similar numbers to H1N1 and <100K deaths, if so there is going to be a lot of questioning over the cost of the reaction.

 

[Zarathustra]

Acute respiratory infection rate in Germany also collapsing.

Flu waves come in winter when everyone is at home and suffering from vitamin D deficiency and disappear in the spring with the sun and fresh air. Now people are forced to stay at home.
Malice or stupidity?

Study confirms vitamin D protects against colds and flu — Harvard Gazette

Researchers find vitamin D helps the body fight acute respiratory infection.

news.harvard.edu

 

[rocks]

Even the doomers are now walking back their predictions....

Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer - Washington Examiner

A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has presented evidence that if current measures work as expected, the death toll would drop to roughly 20,000 people or fewer.Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

And NYC is still not at capacity.

 

[cypherblock]

but if you take the position that people need to stay under lockdown for a year even if it means they lose everything and it then turns out to not be that bad and we are already close to the peak, well people will notice that.

I haven't heard anyone even remotely suggesting a year lockdown.

 

[AdrianX]

I haven't heard anyone even remotely suggesting a year lockdown.

Does it count if I suggest a 1-year lockdown? its practically the only way to keep us safe from teh virus until a vaccine is developed.

You don't seem to grasp the difference between a seasonal flu and a pandemic to which there is no vaccine or cure.

I think it's in the marketing, but I may never get it, I'm somewhat dysfunctional when it comes to following the herd. It's hard for me.

 

[Zarathustra]

I haven't heard anyone even remotely suggesting a year lockdown.

The leader described the immense health and economic challenges as the “toughest year of our lives” and warned Australians to prepare for a shutdown that could last six months.

Great leaders that you support.
6 or 12 months are essentially the same. You cannot commit suicide twice.
You former Bitcoiners already support the Chancellor's 20 trillion plus dollar bailout. And don't tell me the worldwide sum is not already at that level. Not to mention the deaths that this implosion already creates even if we stop this shutdown today. Just wait for the numbers in 2 months, or in 6 months. Italy and Spain did not even ask Europe whether they will save them again. Or do you think they can create that additional debt themselves? Wouldn't surprise me. It also wouldn't surprse me, if you'll answer with another nitpick oneliner.

A political lightweight in Germany (Boris Palmer) demanded an exit scenario with a clear schedule, because this procedure could hardly be carried out for longer than another month.
Political heavyweights (Horst Seehofer et al.) denied this request: "Not with me!"

 

[Bloomie]

I think it's in the marketing, but I may never get it, I'm somewhat dysfunctional when it comes to following the herd. It's hard for me.

My comment was not directed at you, so I'll assume this response is also misdirected.

 

[Zarathustra]

My comment was not directed at you, so I'll assume this response is also misdirected.

It was directed to me. Like Adrian, of course I never get vaccinated against the many flu viruses. A friend of mine first did it a few years ago. Then she got the flu like never before.

... or tell us a story about your motorcycle accident in Italy twenty years ago

Prof.Dr. Stefan Hockertz just confirmed my experience.

In southern Europe, the hospitals are chronically overloaded, the cost reductions the past few years ruined them. Hygienic conditions are catastrophic and infections caused by multi-resistant germs are a multiple of ours.

Politicians are obviously not properly advised. Politics is authoritarian, opinionated. They are very afraid not to act. We have had 25,000 flu deaths recently and we did not speak like the politicians of death-bringing plague, war and other horrific terms with which they panicked human beings and cause great collateral damage. For me this is hysteria and sensible, knowledge-based action has been completely lost to politics.

We will go through this pandemic just as we have gone through every influenza pandemic. After 2-3 months we will have a nearly completed infection of the population and from then on we will also have some immunity, as is always the case with influenza. What happens to us with social peace and the collateral damage that politicians are responsible for - with these disproportionate and immoderate measures - will cause unrest and concern among the population for many years to come, much more than the virus itself. Not the virus makes and sick, fear makes us sick.

 

[AdrianX]

My comment was not directed at you, so I'll assume this response is also misdirected.

My response: I think it's in the marketing.

Is how I would explain the: difference between a seasonal flu and "this" pandemic to which there is no vaccine or cure.

 

[cypherblock]

Great leaders that you support.
6 or 12 months are essentially the same. You cannot commit suicide twice.
You former Bitcoiners already support the Chancellor's 20 trillion plus dollar bailout. And don't tell me the worldwide sum is not already at that level. Not to mention the deaths that this implosion already creates even if we stop this shutdown today. Just wait for the numbers in 2 months, or in 6 months. Italy and Spain did not even ask Europe whether they will save them again. Or do you think they can create that additional debt themselves? Wouldn't surprise me. It also wouldn't surprse me, if you'll answer with another nitpick oneliner.

You don't know what people support or don't just by guessing (and evidently your interpretation of forum posts needs some work), just like you don't know how many people now have immunity to Covid-19 by guessing.

What we need is random testing of the population to asses the situation and decide from there. Anyone making projections beyond 1 month is also just guessing as the data really isn't there to support it. I don't think many countries can survive a 1 year lockdown, already workers are getting laid off and airlines, restaurants, bars and others at a lot of risk for failure as this continues.

The need for random testing is in fact highlighted by the Oxford report that you evidently take as fact whereas the rest of us (including the authors) would like to further verify. "Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic" (emphasis added)

Meanwhile, while some are indicating that the Imperial College scientists are now coming round to this Oxford interpretation, they have apparently have jumped the gun and the key scientist there says:

​

​

2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.​

​

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.​

​

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).​

(emphasis added to 4)

 

[Zarathustra]

You don't know what people support or don't just by guessing (and evidently your interpretation of forum posts needs some work), just like you don't know how many people now have immunity to Covid-19 by guessing.

I know that you support and defend a shutdown, based on zero representative data. I also know that you will continue to refuse to present a clear opinion. That's why you believe that I don't know what you support. You will still not tell us, for how long this crazy shutdown can and should be enforced in your opinion. Instead you write complete ridiculous sentences like this:

"I don't think many countries can survive a 1 year lockdown, already workers are getting laid off and airlines, restaurants, bars and others at a lot of risk for failure as this continues."

As if there are some countries out there who can survive a 1 year lockdown! I wonder in which world you are living.
But at least it's now confirmed that you have no socioeconomic understanding.

What we need is random testing of the population to asses the situation and decide from there.

Oh, you start to realize that already? That's what I said all the times.
Tiny little Iceland already did it for the slow thinkers and those who shut down without/before backing it with evidence data. As of yesterday:

890 confirmed cases (2'000 - 4'000 calculated cases)
18 hospitalized
6 intensive care
2 dead

That's what you need to know to decide that you should not shut down the supply chains and risk billions of victims.

 

[cypherblock]

I support self enforced social distancing and distance learning in public schools for a trial period of 2-4 weeks. Businesses that just have people sitting in cubes all day should also tell everyone to work remotely for a while, others can hopefully adapt a bit as well. None of that means you have to run around crying "we're all going to die". Let's see if the spread can be slowed down and more data can shed new light on whether this kind of shutdown is helping or even necessary.

(emphasis added)

So what we need is more data as I've said from the start. I support fully the testing that is going on (or concluded) in Iceland, but I have not seen a comprehensive report on this data, nor would I assume that Iceland is representative of the world. What I did see indicated to me that a small % of Iceland has been exposed to Covid-19, but those that were exposed generally had mild symptoms (the data I've seen suggests only 2% have severe symptoms). I see no scientific publication from deCode genetics on this however. I did not see anything indicating herd immunity in Iceland, but it seems to indicate more that there is very low severity of disease (2% vs 20% severe). I would like to see more detailed analysis, please post if you can find one.

I don't think we are at a point where we can take the data from Iceland and say, "ok everyone back to business as usual, go to restaurants, go to bars, stop social distancing". But I do think random testing is the best way for us to find out the state of the infection.