Bitcoin Cash Wall Observer

[adamstgbit]

283 PH on Via BTC
5mins later
295 PH on Via BTC

333 PH

 

[adamstgbit]

target 0.1195 by end of next week, quiet confidence in my prediction.

so far this prediction is look'in Golden.
i smell trouble ahead for BCC, we're racing to a diff adjustment, at which point miners will switch back etc etc. miners switching for profitability are more likely to DUMP the BCC so we have a few days of higher than normal selling pressure... And Bitcoins Segwit will soon activate.

segwit is very bad news for the BCC short term, and might even have a prolonged effect and call our whole reason for being into question.

The Core nodes will clear black logs, the Core chain will have roughly doubled capacity, fees WILL come down significantly! " the troubles are over, core devs we're right all along, TOLD YA!" "Minners agree to delay 2x in light of recent onchain capacity incress brought on by segwit!" BTC will MOVE like its never moved before.

and for BCC that means:

 

[AdrianX]

Segwit is not likely to bring a capacity increase.
How many people do you think are going to abandon their HD wallets and transfer funds to a Seg-coin wallet with lower security? I'm guessing very few.

blocks may not be full but I don't think it will be because signatures are being segregated from blocks.

I'm keen to see what happens to price, I have a few BTC charged for action.

 

[adamstgbit]

i imagine that segwit TX will be the default as long as you have an up-to-date core node.
so guessing like 90% of TX on bitcoin will be segwit enabled.
also there is an incentive to using segwit TX, your TX will appear smaller and incur less fees.

the idea that segwit TX are "less secure" is a non issue, its pretty far fetched, and with core's remarkable talent for controlling the narrative...

yes, i believe bitcoin will shine thanks to the segwit upgrade. the poeple will have there 75% sig discount, and they will start using LN ASAP, and they will love it, no matter how "bad" we say it is.
[doublepost=1503373772,1503372651][/doublepost]unless none of that happends and it all turns to shit for bitcoin

 

[adamstgbit]

HOLY SHIT!
the BCC blockchain train is Ziping by at 50 blocks / hour! ( and probably has more speed coming.. )
when that dif adjustment hits, the train will smash into a brick wall...

 

[AdrianX]

i imagine that segwit TX will be the default as long as you have an up-to-date core node.

assuming that 6000 odd segwit enabled BS/Core nodes all use segwit by default I would think that accounts for possibly less than 1% of bitcoin users. (I don't even think there are that many real users I think those are mostly sybil nodes) most Bitcoin users use SPV, I run a node, I use it to broadcast Armory transactions - cold storage coins to my SPV wallet I don't use the node as a wallet. My SPV wallet is what I then use for day to day bitcoin transactions.

I'm thinking that the 8,000,000 coinbase users don't make up the majority of those BS/Core nodes, and if there are approximately 60,000 nodes with port 8333 closed then that's still less than 1% of estimated bitcoin users running nodes.

Just looking at India only 45 nodes most are BU nodes, The last report I saw has 40,000 bitcoin users on one exchange in India and Zebpay was reporting adding 2500 new android users a day earlier this year. I can't imagine anywhere cost to 1% of all Indian bitcoin users all running nodes and as a result segwit.
[doublepost=1503378081][/doublepost]

when that dif adjustment hits, the train will smash into a brick wall...

Yes its going to be a dosser maybe the 6 block difficulty will kick in, I'll be mining BTC for sure and buying BCC the BCC transaction rate wont drop, it'll just take longer to confirm on chain.

This could get ugly for BTC when the hashrate swings back, BTC has a limit on transaction capacity that reduces with less hashrate BCC's transaction limit does not reduce with falling hashrate.

 

[adamstgbit]

ic...

I still think that your underestimating the immediate impact of segwit, while i appear to have overestimated.

blockchain.info's wallets will probably start doing segwit TX be default, and i'm sure a bunch of other wallets/ exchanges will to, its cheaper for there users, and its not like there hasn't been a multi year effort to get everyone "segwit ready", i'd expect to an immediate impact, and yes segwit is what BTC has commited to, the other wallets will be upgraded one by one, the discount offered to segwit TX is significant so...

as much as i'm a hater when it comes to segwit + LN, it is the course that bitcoin has locked in, i expect them to go threw with it, and "love it" weather or not BCH is making headway itself.

 

[adamstgbit]

segwit has been active for a few hours and so far no noticeable incress in TX throughput.

it appears as tho core hasn't made segwit TX default, and you have to enter a few cmd line cmd's to actually do segwit tx, which make sense, since they have no intent on increasing throughput....

i bet they will say some BS about "we want to keep segwit Opt in" to justify not making segwit TX default for everyone.

 

[Amait Kumar]

Perhaps... but probably an army of bitcoiners will come rolling in and start claiming free money, as no third party play roles. Its happening already, I just think the bulk of them haven't actually came yet.

 

[adamstgbit]

most dumpers have dumped, at this point there are some laggers still dumping, and a few whales that have no doubt not finished dumping, but the bulk of the dumping is dumped.

it was also sorta priced in early, in the first week whenever a block was found speculators dumped, trying to stay ahead of the dumpers sending coins to the exchanges.

the current speculation, says that bitcoin will do well with segwit and this will not be good for BCC. if segwit can offer some reasonable amount of relief to the scaling problem, ( if TX start to become mostly segwit TX) then the fees and backlog will at least temporarily be fixed on bitcoin, this will lead to a lot of "told ya" "core was right along" type stuff and BCC reason for being will be called into question.

if segwit fails to do much of anything... well then...

 

[AdrianX]

I'm still bullish on BCC, Segwit delivers a marginal increase on what is otherwise the same transaction limit. Just looking at the first segwit TX's they don't seem to delivered much extra block space, they just make it more confusing to calculate.

My feeling on BCC is 1MB Segwit is not a threat to BCC adoption, What is happening with ripple and South Korea is more of a threat to BCC.

But on the horizon is predicting market movements to the 2MB segwit, how will that consolidation / dumping "consolodumping" play out, BTC1 > BTC >< BCC? Positioning for those movements and those outcomes will give some insight into the long term BCC return.

I'm about 2/3ds of the way through acquiring my BCC hedge and still working on it.

 

[adamstgbit]

another big piece of fud with BCC is this odd minning situation happening.

but if price can just dump 10-15% and then keep minning profitably near 0% then maybe minning will stabilize?

 

[AdrianX]

The mining profitability swings in BCC I think is just that FUD, it's a feature that gives BCC an advantage we don't see it now because the price is so low, but when it goes up it's going to be a killer advantage.

Even now if BCC miners get 60 block's an hour, that's 750 BCC being dumped an hour at worst. that's not much inflation when there are 16,000,000 BCC out there not being sold.

if selling 750 BCC an hour for like 30 hours (or more like 60% of that = 450 BCC) is going to crash the price that's $8,000,000 dump per super difficulty adjustment. - then cheep coins. I may trade a little on the next set but think this is bitcoin and some random event will just come in and move the market.

 

[adamstgbit]

@AdrianX
2min block times is ...funny... for lack of a better term, and it doesn't help the "this is bitcoin" case, at all.
right now its causing funnyness, and its unclear how it will resolve.
it is a lot of money for the markets to absorb...but BCC being in an unstable situation is a good reason to be bearish, in itself.

I continue to be bearish on BCC and bullish on BTC

the trade of a life time is coming soon, but we aren't there yet!

 

[AdrianX]

I'm hanging in there still waiting for those 0.1 BTC = 1BCC coins. I, have bids all the way down to 0.04 if you're selling.

I think this BCC difficulty adjustment change is working well, I wasn't sure about it at first, I though it was like cheating, but it's more like economic incentive genius or blockchain shorinji kempo. LOL

The trade of a life time is coming soon, but we aren't there yet!

talk to me! do you think I should be holding BTC?

 

[adamstgbit]

talk to me! do you think I should be holding BTC?

what you aren't hodling BTC?
fuck ya you should be holding BTC, bags and bags of it! how else will you get these 0.1 BCC's!

0.04 is kinda crazy low, looking for more like 0.11's or 0.12's
when its all said and done, were talking 0.5BCC == 1BTC soooooo, dont get TOO greedy

 

[AdrianX]

what you aren't hodling BTC?

LOL, yes, but I'm dumping for BCC.

 

[Bagatell]

talk to me! do you think I should be holding BTC?

I'm not. I went full Norway @ 0.07

 

[Bagatell]

Guys relax :wink: let me reassure you with these idle thoughts…

Firstly on profitability based mining. The raw profitability of hash/dollar is only the base value, to this must be applied a risk factor multiplier. So the chance of that chain failing. Until now the chance of BTC chain failing has been near zero so profitability has been very close to raw hash/dollar. The risk of any other chain succeeding has been near zero, which is why for the last 2 years there has never been any fork.

For the first time now there is non-negligible chance of BTC being ousted, and there is a non-negligible chance of another chain becoming dominant. This means some miners (that have a high risk for BTC and high chance of BCC becoming dominant) the profitability calc works out EV+ even if raw profitability suggests mining BTC. Other miners that still feel strongly BTC will dominate, they won’t switch regardless of profitability, until such time as they re-evaluate the risk multipliers.

In short, to quote Zander, the economic patch will take longer to be applied. It will be applied though.

Secondly, about the price.

On the face of it, it seems that a decline in the BTC/BCC rate would be beneficial as that would adjust the profitability. I would agree that in the long term, this will be the catalyst that drives the cashening to its ultimate conclusion.

In the short term however, the relative valuation is hugely beneficial. Attempting to drive down the price of BCC is made much harder by a ~6.7x differential at the moment. What I mean is that if big BTC holder dumps say 1000 BCC on the market, it can be countered with just 150BTC.

If the price were higher, then it would be much more difficult to support. Maintaining BCC price in the 0.15 range is cheap. Doing so demonstrates to the market strength in value, and bleeds BTC holders for a fraction. (At its extreme, the BCC market could be cornered for just 2.5m BTC. Not saying thats a good thing, but is an interesting thought experiment)

So far from being worried, I am pretty relaxed at the moment. We are in good shape. BCC is playing the long game, stay relevant, demonstrate it works, show the market that there is an alternative, let the market come to us.

BTC is imploding slowly. Once people realise this there will be a “run on the bank”. Time is on our side

 

[AdrianX]

LOL, full Norway is a thing now. I'm still working on it, and I'm in no rush.