Wall Observer

[Norway]

Maybe Santa Nakamoto comes down the chimney this year

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The Fed was forced to do a "rate hike" to save face, though I have to put it in quotes because 0.25% is practically nothing, merely a symbolic gesture so they can say they did it. Probably it will be reversed with suitable "emergency" excuse in short order, or maybe something more subtle like coupling it with QE style injections elsewhere.

Market response will largely depend on whether the hike is perceived as "one and done" or as the start of a trend toward reversion to normal interest rates of several (whole!) percents, which will be a tough trick indeed.

And also, it's an election year so Yellen will want to keep the democrats in power, meaning avoid economic pain during the year, so that's another big reason the rate hike can't really be extended like people seem to expect.

 

[OWSLEYBEATSBIGCARTEL]

/\BTC here weeeeee goooooo+++ $500 close! ;-) #HODL

 

[Erdogan]

Mee too.

But interestingly, there was a small turbulence in the bitcoin price right after the decision. Are we finally connected to the real world?
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The Fed was forced to do a "rate hike" to save face, though I have to put it in quotes because 0.25% is practically nothing, merely a symbolic gesture so they can say they did it. Probably it will be reversed with suitable "emergency" excuse in short order, or maybe something more subtle like coupling it with QE style injections elsewhere.

Market response will largely depend on whether the hike is perceived as "one and done" or as the start of a trend toward reversion to normal interest rates of several (whole!) percents, which will be a tough trick indeed.

And also, it's an election year so Yellen will want to keep the democrats in power, meaning avoid economic pain during the year, so that's another big reason the rate hike can't really be extended like people seem to expect.

Well there was the decision and the press conference. Hiked interest on the excess reserves is given (but that is not really market intervention, it is more a random dole to the banks). After the decision, the Federal Reserve will have to do something in the market to make sure the market interest rate in fact increases. But this story shows how much the sentiment of some distinct persons (those the market actors believe are able to affect the market...) can affect the market. It was a whatever-it-takes moment.

Still I believe the market interest rate can not rise substantially in the current market where money in the form of debt is abundant. As I always warn, new money can also be created behind the curtain, for instance a SOE (state (government) owned enterprise) can create lots of credit, seemingly unrelated to the Fed. High interest rate is just not in the interest of the government, which is a large debtor.

 

[solex]

The 3-day chart on Bitstamp is showing the most bullish "launchpad" formation since the $205 level in Oct 2013. While a rapid 5x increase seems too optimistic, a doubling from $460 looks promising.
Maybe Jeff's BIP202 getting pulled into Core will be enough of a trigger? Or just the increasingly perilous world macro-economics situation is enough.

 

[lebing]

We should see a big move in some direction in the next two days. The coil is getting too tight to hold for long.

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

@solex

Funny you mention a doubling from $460. I literally just woke up from a dream where the price went to $900 in a day. I can't see it happening in a day, though, barring some sudden news.

 

[solex]

Haha. In the only dream I ever had about the Bitcoin price it was crashing through the floor in a sea of red candles. That was a while ago.

I suppose Todd getting commit access to Core would be one thing that could do it!

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Then I'd have to start a thread titled, "Core Collapsing. XT and BU UP."

 

[lebing]

If this push can't get below 450 by the end of the day we should easily break 475 next week

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Looks like it wants to retrace some of the unconsolidated gains made in the blue box, maybe retesting 400-425 or so to form a proper launchpad.

The exponential trend (~2.5 month doubling time, something like the small purple line) that started in October remains intact [log chart]:

 

[lebing]

Hmm that is possible ZB, but I think if we get down that low we will definitely hit the trend line.

Meanwhile MA 100 is providing good support

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Yeah 429 sounds about right given the MA is there. My idea is that it's basically just a token retest so we can have more certainty that we've gotten a proper consolidation.

Looks like 431.5 (Bitfinex) might have been the bounce point. [EDIT: Guess not.]

 

[JVWVU]

Possible handle starting to form on 12 hour chart?

 

[lebing]

Yep could definitely be a cup and handle formation brewing there. Good call

 

[Norway]

Hodl, gentlemen!

 

[soullyG]

Hodling tight! This looks like a nice launchpad into $480+, even if we do drop down to $420ish first

 

[Bagatell]

 

[soullyG]

Price creeping up slowly

 

[lebing]

Still just barely hanging above the ma 100.