Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Eris · Nov 1, 2016

bluemoon said:
Hello everyone! I've been walking across Spain; I'm back for a while now.

El Camino de Santiago?

Kidneystone · Nov 1, 2016

say you fork this off with 5% hashing power.

Don't you think choosing for the 5% chain would call for a much more crippled bitcoin core chain?

adamstgbit · Nov 1, 2016

Don't you think choosing for the 5% chain would call for a much more crippled bitcoin core chain?

it starts off with 5% and quickly gains >95%
the forking off at 5% just forces everyone to think

won't take them long to realize the choice they are facing is cripple-core Vs bitcoin.

pekatete · Nov 1, 2016

jbreher said:
The masses understand no more than the fact that they can surrender some amount of money to procure some product or service. Not that they couldn't understand more, but they are blissfully ignorant.

You have to acknowledge that for universal use / adoption of bitcoin, you do not need every bitcoin user to profess about money, not even have a graduate level understanding of money. Bottom line is it is neither necessary nor sufficient to have an overwhelming knowledge about money to appreciate aspects of bitcoin, even leading to adoption.

cliff · Nov 1, 2016

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Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP!
-------------------------------------
BTC $736.84
Gemini Daily $ 704 | 2272.95120815 BTC | Total $1,600,157.65 (Mon, 2016-10-31)
GBTC* $110
-------------------------------------
BTCswap(BFX - FFR) 0.0376% | BTCswap(Polo) 0.0138%
-------------------------------------
XAU (spot)* $1277.21
COMEX CG1* $1277.8
SPDR Gold Trust ETF* $122.79
-------------------------------------
HashRate 1.92 EH/s
MarketCap $11,693,986,540
BTC Dominance 84.2%
Exchange Volume (BTC) $125.35m
Exchange Volume (ALT) $46.04m
Exchange Volume (BTC) Dominance 73.1%
-------------------------------------
10YR Treas 1.86%
Copper* $220.55/lb
Crude (WTI)* $46.77/barrel

*Indicates price at market opening
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------

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bluemoon · Nov 1, 2016

Kidneystone said:
I don't think John Blocke really understands the differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum

I'm not sure what you're getting at!
[doublepost=1478023234][/doublepost]

Eris said:
El Camino de Santiago?

Yes, Camino Frances. I was pleased to find I still had it in me!

Hard on the feet, but screen free.

bluemoon · Nov 1, 2016

adamstgbit said:
i though BU was headed for a minority fork should segwit be adopted(forced) onto the network.
or is that the BTCFork crew?
I've kinda had it, all i want to know is, where do i go to fork the bitcoins ASAP??? lol.

Blocke explained the dynamics of a BU majority fork. An important point is that if there is demand for an increased level of transactions, that is to BU's advantage: users will choose BU because BU will service their transactions, unlike Core.

BU faces a much harder time if there is a minority fork. The market may support the minority fork, especially if the fork sustains itself long enough for users to use it and so for transactions to flow in its favour, transactions which Core disowns. Yes, that is the BTCFork crew: I guess they (we) are hoping Via helps build BU momentum so there is a majority BU fork and the minority option is not put to the test. I'm not sure how much waiting time there is.

Running BU lets you signal willingness to fork ASAP!

jbreher · Nov 1, 2016

pekatete said:
You have to acknowledge that for universal use / adoption of bitcoin, you do not need every bitcoin user to profess about money, not even have a graduate level understanding of money. Bottom line is it is neither necessary nor sufficient to have an overwhelming knowledge about money to appreciate aspects of bitcoin, even leading to adoption.

While I hope you are right, I feel we have yet a very long road ahead of us. Most have no idea that there is anything wrong with their money. Accordingly, they have no incentive to look for anything else.

Richy_T · Nov 1, 2016

solex said:
it would be nice to see a projection of when SegWit gets maxed out for normal business.

The problem with such an estimation is that business is being driven away. If Bitcoin fails completely, it's possibly 1.7 would never be reached. So you would have to make such an estimation based on previous growth.

pekatete · Nov 1, 2016

@jbreher - if the universal adoption of bitcoin is dependent on the masses realising that there is something wrong with the money they use, then you are probably right about having a long road ahead of us. On the other hand (and not being an expert in money and / or its properties), I believe the main attraction to bitcoin up to this point is it's property as a store of value which is one of those properties that the masses would recognise "from a mile away" and not need to appreciate the other finer points in the properties of money in bitcoin. In effect, I am saying we are in the promised land, we just don't know it yet.

lunar · Nov 1, 2016

So the bursting of the 2013 bubble was the all about the single centralised exchange model going KaBOOM. Empty Gox died, and it's clear that there were all sorts of shenanigans going on behind the scene. Some extra info i'd not been aware of in AQs latest article. This central point of failure was the weakness in the system that was easiest to exploit as bad actor.
(insert letters, names, governments, groups here).

In hindsight this was obvious and anyone still having coins on Gox in 2013 really had their eyes closed. The secret to surviving the 2013 bubble was to hold your own coins and maybe sell some when it became obvious Gox was about to croak it.

Fast forward to today, and whether it's due to hubris, techno mono vision, or nefarious actors the effect is the same. We are headed for a crisis that anyone who's paying attention can see coming a mile off. We've had hard coded limit on transactions of 3TPS for quite some time and as @solex points out above, bumping into this limit has had some fairly serious backlog spikes. The single implementation, centralised development model is going to go KaBOOM, as the free market points out its obvious weakness.

It's looking like we are headed into another bubble period. For analogy here i'd liken it to a sports stadium. What we've seen so far, (perhaps?) are small rushes, as buses turn up to the ticket stalls. Eventually tickets are sold and the majority gets in the stadium. In a bubble scenario i'd liken this to a bomb scare in the 90th minute of the match. There simply are not enough exits to cope, no matter how much you pay for your escape route. People (transactions) are going to die in the stamped.

How to play out this inevitable scenario, is the real question? The adage hold your own keys, helps here, same as it always has, (head down the Winchester and wait for it all to blow over) but for those of us who might like to try hedging a little, as the bubble momentum builds, we are ironically left with very few options, other than to trust pre loading btc onto centralised exchanges AGAIN !

I'd appreciate any thoughts on how to play this, other than the exchange route? As the coming gridlock is going to be painful to watch, let alone participate in.

adamstgbit · Nov 1, 2016

@lunar i think you're spot on. expect maybe the bubble bursting was MtGox plus all this other shitstorm; chain ban + 20MB HF proposal + things i've forgotten about like NY regulations + Mike saying bitcoin is doomed + Core saying bitcoin is crippled ( they have been saying this for years)
i think it was mostly all fud, MtGox hacked != bitcoin hacked, chain ban's everything that is good including google paypal and facebook. 20MB ... no comment ..., silly regulations simply push innovation elsewhere. Mike was being slightly retarded, altho ridiculously good looking, Core is dumb and ugly!

so there you have it we went down for all the wrong reasons and now not only will be recover losses, but start pricing in the scaling!

quote from @lunar:

The single implementation, centralised development model is going to go KaBOOM.

I think your right, and i think we'll all be better off and FEEL a whole lot better about where this is going once we see the new development model in action.

the world will take notice when silly governments start to "crack down" on the evil bitcoin, while the ( ridiculously good looking and intelligent ) prime minister of Canada starts talking about how bitcoin can "help the middle class", and thats why he's (printing money out of thin air) investing in fin-tech "R&D".

KABOOM

>32,000 < 2 years.

i get carried away sometimes ...

lunar · Nov 1, 2016

As a little graphical interlude I spotted these two charts today. Source thomsonreuters and Zerohedge Incredibly bitcoin is up approximately 250% since October last year, with the Brazilian Real and is well on its way to being the worlds best performing currency of the year AGAIN

....7 from the last 8 if memory serves?

adamstgbit · Nov 1, 2016

but BTC/USD is only up about ~70% from the start of this year.

is it really up 250% VS the Brazilian Real?

freetrader · Nov 2, 2016

bluemoon said:
Blocke explained the dynamics of a BU majority fork. An important point is that if there is demand for an increased level of transactions, that is to BU's advantage: users will choose BU because BU will service their transactions, unlike Core.

BU faces a much harder time if there is a minority fork. The market may support the minority fork, especially if the fork sustains itself long enough for users to use it and so for transactions to flow in its favour, transactions which Core disowns. Yes, that is the BTCFork crew: I guess they (we) are hoping Via helps build BU momentum so there is a majority BU fork and the minority option is not put to the test. I'm not sure how much waiting time there is.

Running BU lets you signal willingness to fork ASAP!

Yes, I keep on encouraging people to run more BU full nodes and get involved in it.

I truly hope more miners follow ViaBTC's lead and take the steps towards a safe hard fork using BU and the upgrade strategy that has been outlined.

Since you mention BTCfork, BU is in quite a lucky position because community momentum is behind a BU-based fork client, majority or not. So even if a minority fork happens, it is pretty likely that the BU developers can basically carry on their work without any great adjustment. I am trying to keep the minimum viable fork client based on BU up to date w.r.t. changes that BU makes upstream. (*)

BTCfork's interest has never been to replace any existing developers. Whether that would be Core devs or BU devs or any other devs, anxieties are misplaced.
If you develop on some Satoshi client, you'll be able to carry on contributing to this open source project just the same afterwards as before. Certain gravy trains may come to a halt depending on how that impacts some investor outlooks and business plans, but that's just life and happens anyway.

(*) I would however advise BU to split their development into a stable branch and a development branch, with very strict quality requirements for integration on the stable branch. This will help testers who want to test the more experimental features while those who need stability (miners) can get dependable stable sources.

lunar · Nov 2, 2016

@adamstgbit
was just eyeballing that. last october/november btc/BRl was at about 1000. its now around 2500. very rough.

awemany · Nov 2, 2016

So at the risk of being (somewhat) OT and evoking a political fight here:

First of all: I am neither a U.S. citizen nor do I have -as an outsider- a preference for any of the two candidates. They honestly both disgust me on different levels and issues. I picked the example of Hillary Clinton below, as it is simple the one that came to my notice. I am not saying Trump isn't using similar tactics.

Clinton has a PR team ("correct the record") that goes all out on media manipulation and opinion steering.

And for an example of their effectiveness, have a look at /r/politics. There are no doubt lots of faults with Trump, but you have to be blind to not see how absolutely one-sided that subreddit became.

It looks like there seems to be a nice and strong parallel between /r/politics and /r/Bitcoin, with /r/politics being a larger example of what and how manipulation works on reddit.

I think I can actually look at /r/politics with a bit more detachment than I can look at /r/Bitcoin right now (a weird situtation in a way..), and it is very interesting and enlightening to see similar tactics being employed there and see their effects.

Bagatell · Nov 2, 2016

@awemany

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/wikileaks-reveals-googles-strategic-plan-help-democrats-win-election

core are the least of our problems

Justus Ranvier · Nov 2, 2016

Bagatell said:
core are the least of our problems

Four months later, this is looking increasingly accurate:

adamstgbit · Nov 2, 2016

my theory is they will put a women in power, women FED chairman, women president, everything goes to shit, and then they blame it on the women!

thats what i would do....

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

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