Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Norway · Sep 6, 2016

freetrader said:
https://www.hackread.com/hacked-bitcointalk-forum-database-on-dark-web/

The passwords are encrypted, according to the story. Maybe we should buy the database to restore the old GCBU thread here, lol.

Peter R · Sep 6, 2016

[announcement] Satoshi’s Vision: Bitcoin Development & Scaling Conference

r/btc thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/51gdpu/announcement_satoshis_vision_bitcoin_development/

(Discounted tickets for BU members)

Bagatell · Sep 6, 2016

@Peter R

Who's speaking?

cliff · Sep 6, 2016

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Service sector activity is down - slowest growth since 2010
Corporate cash reserves dwindling - “The crux of the issue is deteriorating earnings. S&P 500 companies have posted negative growth for six straight quarters, a stretch that’s been exceeded only once since 1936, during the financial crisis. Analysts see income declining 1.4 percent in the current period, dragged down by contractions at automakers, banks and computer makers.”
- However, cash Hoarders seek insurance protection (negative interest rate problems) - “Because of the low interest rate level, we note increasing demand for insurance solutions for the storage of cash,” said Philipp Surholt at Zurich Insurance Group AG, among underwriters reporting a surge in such requests. “We’re seeing demand for coverage for sums ranging from 100 million to 500 million francs.”
Obama - 'We can't let the internet become the wild, wild West'
CNN Money - “OPEC is pumping more oil than ever before, and capping production at extremely high levels wouldn't really help fix an oversupplied market.”
PayPal & MasterCard do a deal
Holy Corn futures! Rekt!
Intel acquires Movidius in effort to give sight to machines.
NCI Building Systems might be a ‘buy’
- About NCI Building Systems
Bill Gross’ investment strategy for September
Why GitHub Finally Abandoned Its Bossless Workplace

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PM TRIBUTE

satoshis_sockpuppet · Sep 6, 2016

freetrader said:
https://www.hackread.com/hacked-bitcointalk-forum-database-on-dark-web/

Neat, maybe I'll find my old account

. I forgot the nick, the mail address and the password.

xhiggy · Sep 6, 2016

jonny1000 said:
I assume your view is that opposing Classic is a blatantly stupid, you therefore assume all the people who oppose Classic are either corrupt or naively brainwashed, therefore you overestimate the influence of Greg.

I do not think that. Now that you know this, you can try to piece together a more reasonable explanation for me thinking that Greg has a large influence. Good riddance to you.

adamstgbit · Sep 6, 2016

Peter R said:
[announcement] Satoshi’s Vision: Bitcoin Development & Scaling Conference

r/btc thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/51gdpu/announcement_satoshis_vision_bitcoin_development/

(Discounted tickets for BU members)

I hear its planed to be streamed live
I'll try to remember to tune in. ( or watch it after the fact )
final a conference that doesn't talk about how gr8 segwit will be and how SOON it will be ready.
I look forward to hearing about on chain scaling solutions / limitations.
Cheers!

jbreher · Sep 6, 2016

jonny1000 said:
... do a hardfork (e.g. 98% threshold and one year grace period), ...

Goalpost shift from 95% to 98% duly noted.

jonny1000 · Sep 7, 2016

jbreher said:
Goalpost shift from 95% to 98% duly noted.

Yes, after the "DAO wars", I think its important to be more prudent. Opinion is shifting slightly. I now think 98% is a good idea. Perhaps even killing off the old chain by having miners mine empty blocks on it.

Zarathustra · Sep 7, 2016

jbreher said:
Goalpost shift from 95% to 98% duly noted.

I recommend 101%.

satoshis_sockpuppet · Sep 7, 2016

About SW activation: There has never been consensus about a) whether we want Segwit or b) which flags should be used to activate a certain fork. And the deployment of these soft forks isn't "consensus critical" or else I wouldn't be able to run my old node after activation.

Imho the btcfork movement should use this hole (of many) in Cores "consensus narrative": Name the 2nd position DEPLOYMENT_BTCFORK instead of DEPLOYMENT_SEGWIT in core and just count blocks support the given flag as "support for the hardfork".

Nobody will know if a miner supports the hardfork or the Softfork and it shows the absurdity in the narrative of the gangsters, that every Bitcoin user inherently accepts their power of definition.

That is not playing nice, but playing nice, got us where we are now.

freetrader · Sep 7, 2016

jbreher said:
Goalpost shift from 95% to 98% duly noted.

Jonny is merely moving on the asymptotic trajectory of Extreme Consensus, which starts at 51% and moves to 100% consensus and infinite grace period, i.e. no change ever.

If ever there was a need for a corollary to "if it ain't broken don't fix it", then it's now.
I think for Bitcoin it could be "hey look, it's broken, better not let anyone fix it".

And just to clarify, by "broken" I mean the intended *temporary* block size limit which just so happens to get in the gears of Bitcoin growth.

Apologies for the shoddy truncated graph.

The formula for this Extreme Consensus which I found is : y = 900/(100-x)-9

Original SVG graph courtesy of the nice site http://fooplot.com .

lunar · Sep 7, 2016

Lots have been happening the last few weeks, i've been away. Great news all round, with new shoots of encouragement from many areas.

I didn't see this get a mention from a few days ago. A fantastic endorsement no matter what the final outcome.

cliff · Sep 7, 2016

CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT - Satoshi’s Vision (Sept 25, 2016)

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Have been reading some stuff by folks at MIT Media Lab and Digital Currency Initiative. This is interesting:
- https://www.scribd.com/doc/9836115/In-search-of-the-Risk-Quark-DerivTech-sep2008
  - Slide 31 caught my eye, maybe because I watched the Big Short this past weekend
    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bespoke_portfolio_(CDO)
    - http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-big-short-2008-repackaged-into-2016/

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AM TRIBUTE

sickpig · Sep 7, 2016

lunar said:
Lots have been happening the last few weeks, i've been away. Great news all round, with new shoots of encouragement from many areas.

I didn't see this get a mention from a few days ago. A fantastic endorsement no matter what the final outcome.

In that thread gmax complained about BU because it "fried" the testnet, and said this never happened with SegWit or Lightning (1).

This is where it start to be funny because SegWit "fried" the testnet on march 2016 for the exact same reasons (# max number of sigops), and not because another competing implementation disagree on consensus rules, but because two version of SegWit can't agree upon what a valid block is (2) (3).

The even funnier thing is that the block at wich the fork begin was created by Thaddeus Dryja (4) co-author of the Lightining Network "as part of intentionally testing an implementation of Lightning Network software on bigger (thereby more sigops) segwit blocks".

(1) www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/50niyh/thanks_to_core_bitcoin_is_becoming_more/d75ldi2
(2) www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/48yz3d/segwit_forked_unexpectedly_on_testnet/d0nv34u
(3) www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/48yz3d/segwit_forked_unexpectedly_on_testnet/
(4) www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/48yz3d/segwit_forked_unexpectedly_on_testnet/d0o7s2s

ps @Bloomie I used to know how to avoid automatic rendering of the reddit comments, but for some reason I forgot it. The ugly way I found it his wrapping link around "code" block. But it's really ugly and not user friendly.

jbreher · Sep 7, 2016

Zarathustra said:
I recommend 101%.

I'm guessing jonny will make an intermediate "reasonable" pause at 99% before jumping to an "eminently reasonable" figure of 101%.

Whaddayathink, jonny? Are you comfortable with two steps to paradise?

Peter R · Sep 7, 2016

freetrader said:
Apologies for the shoddy truncated graph.

The formula for this Extreme Consensus which I found is : y = 900/(100-x)-9

Original SVG graph courtesy of the nice site http://fooplot.com .

Great graph and I love the title and font choice!

Bloomie · Sep 7, 2016

sickpig said:
ps @Bloomie I used to know how to avoid automatic rendering of the reddit comments, but for some reason I forgot it. The ugly way I found it his wrapping link around "code" block. But it's really ugly and not user friendly.

You can omit the https://

sickpig · Sep 7, 2016

@Bloomie thanks a ton. It was easier that I though

cliff · Sep 7, 2016

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CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT - Satoshi’s Visio (Sept 25, 2016)

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Fed’s Beige Book is out
Helicopter Money - Reality Bites
Singapore Wants to Be Asia’s Sweden in Push for Cashless Payment
Although Demographics Aren’t Economic Destiny, They Demand Attention - Institutional Investor
Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches
- Abstract - Given regime switches in the economyís growth rate, optimal monetary policy rules may respond by switching policy parameters. These optimized parameters di§er across regimes and from the optimal choice under Öxed regimes, particularly in the ináation target and interest rate inertia. Optimal switching rules produce welfare gains relative to constant rules, with switches in the implicit real interest rate used for policy and the degree of interest rate inertia producing the largest gains. However, gains from switching rules decrease if the monetary authority trades-o§ the probability of low rates, or if it may misidentify the regime.

Approaching Fairness in Machine Learning
- Historically, the naive approach to fairness has been to assert that the algorithm simply doesn’t look at protected attributes such as race, color, religion, gender, disability, or family status. So, how could it discriminate? This idea of fairness through blindness, however, fails due to the existence of redundant encodings. There are almost always ways of predicting unknown protected attributes from other seemingly innocuous features.

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