Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

cliff

Active Member
Dec 15, 2015
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854
@cypherdoc - It's sad too. I imagine there are many cool employees who love to play and experiment with btc, tor, etc. during their off time. I know of several bitcoiners with ts security clearances and so forth that are good people and good scientists. Would love to see the internal office memos saying 'stop doing science and advancing technology in your off time.' Very LOL worthy. Copernicus probably would sympathize.
 

Zarathustra

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,439
3,797
Interesting development in Venezuela:

http://themerkle.com/surbitcoin-sells-bitcoin-at-26-below-global-market-average/

I suspect the bitcoin market they discuss is the bolivar fuerte. May be the value of the bolivar has stabilized, after all, they don't print more because the value is so low that the seigniorage is gone.

The seigniorage comes back if they decide to print bills larger than 100, or overprint old ones.

Then you have the card systems, where more money can easily be created. Maybe we will have a disconnect between paper rectangles and bank card money.

Money printing is a part of the misery venezuelans experience. Here is a good article that makes this point:
http://dev.cato.org/publications/commentary/venezuela-vs-ecuador-chavismo-vs-chavismo-dollarized
They can not print money. They can print paper. But that is not money. Credit is the only real money, the oldest one. Since Venezuela lost all credit, they lost the ability to create money at the same time.
 

Erdogan

Active Member
Aug 30, 2015
476
855
They can not print money. They can print paper. But that is not money. Credit is the only real money, the oldest one. Since Venezuela lost all credit, they lost the ability to create money at the same time.
[EDITED]

I disagree. Fiat money, the actual paper rectangles, are money, whether it is strong bolivar, pesos, ringgits, euros, yen, yuan, sterling or dollars. (EDIT: And QE electronic dollars). And bitcoin, the altcoins, gold and silver.

You own money because you control them, either because you have them in your pocket or because you are the only one who knows the keys.

Credit is not real money, but can be used for payment, it is even better for some purposes.

Credit is an agreement for you to receive the money in the future. You own the contract, but you don't own the money. You depend on that the debtor is able and willing to pay.

One severe problem with credit, is that while it exists (before it is paid back or defaulted on), it affects the demand and supply curves for real money and thus has a downward price effect on money.
 
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cypherdoc

Well-Known Member
Aug 26, 2015
5,257
12,994
@Erdogan @Zarathustra, you two have been thru this before ;)

my view is that the currencies, dollars/yuan/pounds/yen/bitcoin/gold/silver, are money. they form the tip of a reverse pyramid standing on it's tip. piled up and fanning out are all the other forms of assets like stocks, bonds, RE, commodities, most of which is bought with debt. the problem here is that there is SO MUCH debt that it appears almost as if it is the money itself, since it pays for most things. that debt pyramid is propped up by the underlying monetary base, currently around $4.8T in the US. since dollars are the reserve world currency, all other forms of fiat are propped up upon dollars. even foreign debt is mostly denominated in dollars. that's why we are all interconnected and eventually why the problems from Brexit and the EU should backlash to the US similar to 2008. btw, i watched the Big Short again last night on Netflix and it was great. i remember all those feelings well from back then.

anyways, yes, Argentina/Venezuela/Zimbabwe all don't have functioning debt markets to pyramid off their currencies b/c they aren't good credit risks. that's a distinct disadvantage esp when their leaders don't understand that this means they can't inflate their base currencies w/o causing extreme inflation, which is exactly what we've seen. otoh, a burgeoning debt market, as exists in the US today, is exactly the reason why we have the ability to experience a deflationary spiral similar to 2008. debt contractions aren't good when leveraged 50:1 as it causes a rush back into the base currency which is why we saw an increase in the dollar value in 2008. this can't be allowed ever again if possible by the Fed. which is why we got a slew of QE's since and continue to inflate the monetary base to prevent the fanned out reverse pyramid of debt from contracting. the only thing that is really benefitting from this right now is stocks and UST's as they represent the speculative toys of Wall St. never mind the real economy. who cares. the good news is that Bitcoin and so far gold/silver are benefitting as well. eventually though, i see gold going under $1000 and possibly all the way back to it's industrial value uses only. but that could take years now that we have the Junta blockstreaming tx throughput. c'mon @Jihan, let's get moving.
[doublepost=1468012274][/doublepost]
As an observer, it seems to me the question has always been
"Yes, but are they *our* extremists?"
you won't think they're *yours* when they kick your door in for coding in linux.
 

cypherdoc

Well-Known Member
Aug 26, 2015
5,257
12,994
forgot about that. what ever happened to Casascius?
[doublepost=1468017888][/doublepost]the way i view a situation like this is that everyone and their mother understands that the Fed will do everything in it's power to devalue the dollar to prevent another deflationary spiral like 2008. thus, the speculative toys of Wall St rally, like stocks. UST price appreciation has been a no brainer win since 1980, the peak of the last interest rate spike, since that is just more of the same; devalue the dollar anytime banks need a bailout. of course, all this will drive Bitcoin to the Moon:

 

cypherdoc

Well-Known Member
Aug 26, 2015
5,257
12,994
Lol bitcoinity:

 

Peter R

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,398
5,595
So I got stranded in Newark NJ on my way to a halving party in Pittsburgh due to a storm. They couldn't get me to Pittsburgh till tomorrow night and I'd have missed the party. So now I'm at a hotel on W29th in Manhattan.

Anyone know of any halving related festivities in NY right now or tomorrow?
 

jbreher

Active Member
Dec 31, 2015
166
526
@cliff

i wouldn't move them at all. you know it's secure and it's already in place and setup with a system you know. that laptop is likely to stay functional for years. yes, the hard disk could degrade so simply make backups of the wallet on 3-4 usb sticks. preferably usb's with security passwords and of high quality and put them in separate safety deposit boxes.
Yes, the laptop is likely to remain functional for some time. Better if you power it up once a month or so so the spindle motor of the HDD doesn't seize.

Definitely back it up somehow. If you don't have at least two copies of your data, you will lose it at some point.

Multiple USB sticks written at approximately the same session are NOT a long term solution. USB sticks are made of NAND flash. Each cell of NAND flash is essentially a little capacitor. There are different amounts of electrical charge (i.e. number of electrons) stored in each of these capacitors representing each bit of data's state. These capacitors 'leak' electrons (charge) over time. In service, this is not an issue, as the controller within the device refreshes (reads and re-writes) each cell over time. However, when powered off, this refresh cannot be performed.

Because of the above, data can be read --- until it can't. Due to enough charge leaking off such that a '0' becomes a '1'.

While it is a stochastic process, identically manufactured USB sticks written at approximately the same time will have a tendency to become unreadable at approximately the same time. As such, by the time you discover one USB stick has lost data, there is a distinct possibility that your other USB sticks will also have lost data through the same mechanism.

I don't want to be alarmist. USB sticks can indeed be used for reliable backup. But don't think you can just write them once, then put them on the shelf for years, and be able to read them when you need them.

edit: catching up with the tip of the thread, I see awemany has beat me to the punch
 
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Roger_Murdock

Active Member
Dec 17, 2015
223
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Saw these two similar small-blocker articles that came out recently:

Why a 1MB Block Size May Be Right for Today's Bitcoin

and

Don't Increase the Block Size for Bitcoin Transactions

(Spoiler alert: the reason we can't increase the block size limit is ... "decentralization.") BTW, I think this is my favorite part:

The Bitcoin developers are experienced programmers and cryptographers, and they’re most certainly not ignorant of economics. They have spent years studying every line of the source code, developing new features, and understanding the economic ramifications of those changes. As much as you think you know about Bitcoin, these guys know and have considered more. You can have an hours-long conversation with someone like Peter Todd or Eric Lombrozo on things like UTXOs, Merkle Trees, Block Headers, or other dense topics.

Telling this select group of developers on why the blocksize should be raised is like lecturing Tom Brady on how to throw a football.​

There are no words.

Anyways, I've already written at length about why I think this basic argument is garbage, but I had a few additional thoughts I wanted to share. The small-blockists seem to assume that an increase in the block size limit always translates into a decrease in "decentralization" (however the hell that's defined). After thinking about it some more, I think there's an easy way to demonstrate pretty convincingly that this is false. More specifically, I think you can show that, at least for a block size limit below a certain threshold of "smallness," it is clear that increasing the limit will result in more "decentralization" (by any reasonable metric for "decentralization").

The first thing to note is that the "smallness" of a particular block size limit should be viewed as being relative to the amount of transactional demand that exists. (Thus, the 1-MB limit wasn't particularly "small" at the time it was put in place, but it is becoming increasingly "small" as transactional demand continues to grow.)

With that in mind, imagine a block size limit that would allow for only a single (non-Coinbase) transaction in each block. I don't know exactly how small that would be while still allowing for the Coinbase transaction and the basic block overhead (maybe 1.5 kb?), but it doesn't really matter for the point I want to make. The point is, we're talking about tiny blocks and a Bitcoin main chain that would allow for a maximum of about 50,000 transactions per year. Now imagine that transactional demand is simultaneously huge -- all 7 billion people on this planet are attempting to use the Bitcoin blockchain as the backbone for the global financial system. It should be pretty apparent that in this scenario, the Bitcoin ecosystem (if we assume for the moment that it could somehow survive under these absurd conditions) would be hugely "centralized." The LN would obviously be a complete non-starter. If the world's population formed a line to make a single on-chain transaction to open a LN payment channel, it would take us around 140,000 years to work our way through that line. That seems unworkable, no? I suppose you could imagine a traditional banking model built on top of the main chain, but clearly the only real use for the actual blockchain would be as a ridiculously-expensive interbank settlement network. Maybe the billionaires of the world could hold some of their wealth on-chain, but everyone else would never touch anything other than Bitcoin IOUs.

The goal of "decentralization" is supposedly "censorship resistance." The point behind my extreme example is that, at a certain point, attempts to guard against censorship effectively result in self-censorship. In other words, it makes no sense to try to protect Bitcoin against attacks ... by crippling its functionality. ("I know. If I cut off my arms and legs, I'll make for a smaller target.")

I'm sure the small-blockists would argue "well, but you're example is so extreme. Clearly at 1-MB we're above the 'threshold' you're referring to, such that further increases in the block size limit would result in decreased 'decentralization.'" Sorry, but no. First of all, of course my example is extreme. It's intended to be, because that can be a useful way of illustrating a principle. And no, it's not at all clear to me that we're "at a point on the curve" where increasing the limit would result in decreased "decentralization." (In fact, my strong intuition is that the opposite is true.) So... prove it.

I think my extreme example is also useful for highlighting the fact that the cost of running a full node, looked at in isolation, is obviously NOT a "reasonable metric for 'decentralization.'" It's ridiculously simplistic and one-dimensional. Just as an aside, the small blockists probably like this metric because it seems like the one that should unambiguously favor the conclusion that "smaller blocks = moar decentralization," but I think that's only necessarily true if you take a static view of things. To the extent that larger blocks and a non-crippled Bitcoin fuel much higher levels of adoption and make many more people want to run full nodes, that demand should incentivize more businesses to innovate to offer solutions that bring down the cost of doing so. (I admit that argument might not be entirely convincing to the extent that all or most of the costs associated with running a full node involve "off-the-shelf"-type components. In other words, there are presumably already huge incentives for entrepreneurs to bring down the costs of storage, bandwidth, etc. But in any case, I think it's still kind of interesting theoretically as a reminder of the importance not to view things from a static perspective.)

So what's the real takeaway from all this? I mean, who the hell knows where we're at "on the curve" and what the optimal block size limit is right now, i.e., the one that most perfectly balances all of the supposed tradeoffs? And who knows what it will be tomorrow since we have to keep in mind that we're dealing with a constantly-shifting target? I think the likely answer is: no one knows. Not even Gregory Maxwell, the Tom Brady of cryptocurrency. "When it is realized that the problem is impossible, the solution becomes simple." (Ok, I just made that quote up, but it sounds good.) What I mean is that the "solution" here is to stop treating the block size limit as a "hard-coded consensus parameter" and instead allow the limit to be determined via a flexible, emergent (and decentralized) manner by adopting a Bitcoin Unlimited-type approach.
 

Zarathustra

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,439
3,797
[EDITED]

I disagree. Fiat money, the actual paper rectangles, are money, whether it is strong bolivar, pesos, ringgits, euros, yen, yuan, sterling or dollars. (EDIT: And QE electronic dollars). And bitcoin, the altcoins, gold and silver.

You own money because you control them, either because you have them in your pocket or because you are the only one who knows the keys.

Credit is not real money, but can be used for payment, it is even better for some purposes.

Credit is an agreement for you to receive the money in the future. You own the contract, but you don't own the money. You depend on that the debtor is able and willing to pay.

One severe problem with credit, is that while it exists (before it is paid back or defaulted on), it affects the demand and supply curves for real money and thus has a downward price effect on money.
(Edited)
I disagree. The bolivar is money as long as there is underlying credit. As soon as the Organized Violence loses trust/credit, they are unable to create money, which is credit. Commodities (grains, metals, physical or digital coins) are not money. Money is not a thing. Those things are mediums of exchange with whom you can pay back credit/debt, which is the one and only money, a credit relation, booked as an obligation and an asset at the same time (receivables and payables).

The more (existing) property is ceded by the state to the private sector or can be created as income after cession to the private sector in the private (non-state) sector the longer the process called “creation of wealth” (recte: later income or property) can endure, because the more power-sustaining taxes can be imposed.

Nonetheless the breakdown of all property-systems is inevitable. This we actually can study watching the exploding indebtedness of “democratic” powers. The problem of state power vs. private economic activities is per definitionem unsolvable. Wealth creating inevitably sooner or later leads to wealth destruction. This explains “rise and fall” of any power-or state-based system throughout history.
Dr. Paul C. Martin


I asked if someone could translate this post into a proper English:

http://www.dasgelbeforum.net/forum_entry.php?id=194691
[doublepost=1468044536,1468043672][/doublepost]
forgot about that. what ever happened to Casascius?
[doublepost=1468017888][/doublepost]the way i view a situation like this is that everyone and their mother understands that the Fed will do everything in it's power to devalue the dollar to prevent another deflationary spiral like 2008. thus, the speculative toys of Wall St rally, like stocks. UST price appreciation has been a no brainer win since 1980, the peak of the last interest rate spike, since that is just more of the same; devalue the dollar anytime banks need a bailout. of course, all this will drive Bitcoin to the Moon:

S&P500 at record high. I told you so 6 months ago ...

https://bitco.in/forum/threads/gold-collapsing-bitcoin-up.16/page-246#post-9306
 
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Richy_T

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Dec 27, 2015
1,085
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And no, it's not at all clear to me that we're "at a point on the curve" where increasing the limit would result in decreased "decentralization." (In fact, my strong intuition is that the opposite is true.) So... prove it.
There is no agreed (or even generally espoused) measure of decentralization thus it makes no sense to discuss it nor the things that could potentially affect it.

In fact, in common use, something is either centralized or it is not. It is not usually a spectrum thing. This has only been brought about by the dis-ingenuity of Maxwell Core

Give me some metrics. Then let's proceed.
 

Roger_Murdock

Active Member
Dec 17, 2015
223
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Richy_T said:
There is no agreed (or even generally espoused) measure of decentralization thus it makes no sense to discuss it nor the things that could potentially affect it.
I mostly agree and that was a lot of the focus of my first post on this whole argument -- that "decentralization" is too abstract and ill-defined (and in any case what we really care about is preserving Bitcoin's monetary properties as sound money so let's focus on those).

But just because "decentralization" is somewhat nebulous, I don't think that makes it impossible to discuss meaningfully (just difficult). And obviously this is a concept that, for right or wrong, a lot of the small blockists are very fixated on. And so my point in my most-recent post is to show that, by ANY reasonable metric for decentralization, there are scenarios where it is increased by a larger limit.