But in addition to making the SEC extra-cautious (and slow), a Bitcoin ETF also requires the proposal of a new SEC rule – a proposal that must be made by the exchange where the ETF will be traded.
Nasdaq never filed for such a rule change – but on Thursday the BATS exchange did.
Once filed, such a rule change must be posted for a period of public comment, usually 45 days (although the SEC can extend the period if it deems it necessary).
At the end of the 45-day period, the SEC can approve the rule or extend the period another 45 days. If the SEC feels it needs still more time, it can extend the period another 90 days, and another 60 days beyond that if need be.
So the good news for the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust is that now the clock is ticking. In theory the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF could get approval in August. The maximum period is 240 days, which puts us at Feb. 24, 2017.
Of course, the SEC could also choose to reject the proposed rule change. That would delay the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF indefinitely.
However, despite the uncertainties, the odds favor SEC approval of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust at some point within the next eight months.