Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

jbreher

Active Member
Dec 31, 2015
166
526
@Melbustus
... we also eliminate the 75% discount putting both regular and SW tx's on a level playing field so as not to unfairly advantage LN p2sh multisigs.
In all fairness, the discount also removes a disincentive to consolidating dust. IIRC, I seem to recall the BU talk including maybe coding this up as a user settable (rather than flat 75%) discount. Downside?
 

cypherdoc

Well-Known Member
Aug 26, 2015
5,257
12,994
Hi cypherdoc,

I have been lurking on both bitcointalk.org forum and this forum for a while now, and have now decided to come out of the shadows to participate in the discussions here. I have been closely following your posts since 2013, and you have been an inspiration to me in terms of your economics knowledge, uber TA skills, understanding of bitcoin as well as your consistent stand on things. It takes guts and courage to stick to your calls/predictions with unwavering conviction.

If you may indulge me, I have 3 TA-related questions to ask you (1 question is regarding the bull pennant as posted in the chart above):

1) How likely would this bull pennant resolve upwards? The reason I am asking is that the amount of BFX leverage longs does worry me a little, and I am thinking the Chinese community might pull some shenanigans to spike the price downwards by margin-calling these longs. According to this poster with the alias "r0ach" on bitcointalk.org forum, the Chinese community apparently has been duped into buying the scammy Ethereum tokens, and they are trying to drive Ethereum price upwards as much as possible to offload those tokens to unsuspecting bagholders. A quick look at the charts does indicate that ETH and BTC are negatively correlated, so they would want BTC price to dive downwards for ETH price to head upwards. Do you see a strong likelihood of the bull pennant resolving upwards? Historically, BFX leverage longs at such a high level does not augur well in the near future...

2) Some posters have been posting that Bitcoin price is currently moving within an Ascending Triangle dating back to Oct/Nov 2015, and it appears the ABCDE pattern has only recently been completed. Do you see the Ascending Triangle pattern as a valid pattern worth tracking?

3) A few pages back, you posted that we appear to be in a period that is similar to October 2013 where the Silk Road crash dropped the price by around 30% (or slightly less i think?), do you think we have just passed that phase when the price dipped by around $35-40 this month? I am just thinking some bearwhale may come along and try to sink the price downwards to sub-$400 price. Would like to hear your view on this. If the price sinks below the $400 price level, does this render the nascent bull trend invalid, and mean we are still trapped in a long-term bear trend?

Apologies if my questions sound noobish to you, i'm kinda new to TA trading techniques and am trying to hone my TA knowledge. Thanks for your attention/time in advance.
i guess there was no ascending wedge, eh? :)

btw, there's a distinct difference btwn an ascending wedge and an ascending triangle; the former a bearish ending pattern and the latter an impending bullish breakout pattern. i misread your post b/c of it's bearish slant and thought you said an ascending wedge which would imply a break DOWN. that's why i said no, that definitely was not the case with the long term patterns being both a large and small bullish flag or triangle formation which looked to break UP. which it has.
 

Erdogan

Active Member
Aug 30, 2015
476
855
Are you kidding me, lol? They're going to have to use something like Bitcoin to stop this sort of thing;

As if an $81-million-dollar bank heist wasn't spectacular enough, it now appears that the crime may mark the first time one country has used malicious code to steal money from another country.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/05/27/479760450/north-korea-linked-to-81-million-bangladesh-bank-heist
one (criminal) government has used malicious code to steal money from another (slightly less criminal) government.
 
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Inca

Moderator
Staff member
Aug 28, 2015
517
1,679
Any thoughts on the likely area for the first major pullback @cypherdoc ?
It would be nice to break through up to a 6 handle and bounce off 650 this time round. Lots of resistance from there before.
 

cypherdoc

Well-Known Member
Aug 26, 2015
5,257
12,994
@Inca

that's tough as these breakouts are designed to "breakaway" from the skeptics while they're frozen in the headlights and finally drag them all in before it reverses in a classic whipsaw. that's why i tend to buy major downdrafts when sentiment is extremely poor as a contrarian. then, i can just sit back and hodl the rallies w/o worrying about timing them. i'd look to the Chinese exchanges for the resistance/reversal points as they are the one's leading everyone else around by the noses right now. i'd say the first major source of resistance is btwn 4100 and 4200 yuan. but since every one of the previous major rallies has been at least a 10x, these things can blow higher much further and longer than you'd expect. Bitcoin in that sense is truly extraordinary.
 

theZerg

Moderator
Staff member
Aug 28, 2015
1,012
2,327
The problem with these china driven rallies is its hard to determine if they are fueled by gamblers/day traders or by increasing long term investment...
 

cypherdoc

Well-Known Member
Aug 26, 2015
5,257
12,994
Aren't they all important?
 
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theZerg

Moderator
Staff member
Aug 28, 2015
1,012
2,327
Yes but the gamblers/day traders are easy come easy go. I don't believe their actions represent sustainable price gain, but are important for liquidity. I imagine that they drive the 12-24 hour spikes that we did not see before China got heavily involved.

I mean visually the rise is a staircase. Before 2013 the rise was more a smooth curve with sharp gouges cut out.
 
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dwaltrip

New Member
Dec 19, 2015
21
57
I've partially given up trying to understand all the vast intricacies of Bitcoin as a human phenomenon. I have a certain level of understanding, and some strong yet vague intuitions, and for now this is good enough for me. Going beyond this would require some serious study that I don't have time for anymore, and the whole thing, with the governance challenges, diverse new use cases, layer 2 technologies, etc (especially if you count things like Ethereum and the DAO) is starting to take on whole new levels of complexity. The initial Bitcoin experiment is incredibly complex in its own right, as a human economic-techno-social experiment.

I've got my "not gonna miss the boat" stash and I am simply HODLing hard at this point. I would never forgive myself if BTC made it to absurd prices and I didn't have some coins tucked away, given how early I heard about it (early 2012). I am also lucky to report that I have been able to get the rest of my finances into a good state, so I am okay if it all goes "kaput".

Of course I keep an eye on developments (can't help myself) on reddit, the wider media, and here in this thread, and bust out the popcorn every now and then as necessary =)

If we have a big rally here, I'm hoping my current frame of mind will make it less stressful than previous ones! I'm feeling optimistic about it
 
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Dusty

Active Member
Mar 14, 2016
362
1,172
I'll leave here the Zurich meeting notes where a lot of very interesting material has been discussed.
The ideas pouring there go a looong way showing how much work is being done (and thought) in the Bitcoin land.

https://bitcoincore.org/logs/2016-05-zurich-meeting-notes.html

There are way too many things there for me to digest: if someone is interested in giving some abstract of the most interesting things he'll have my deepest gratitude :LOL:
 

lunar

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,001
4,290
@cypherdoc

Adds some credence to your 'highly leveraged' theory.

"We have tried to calculate the amount of money that the Chinese have invested in mining, we estimate it to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Even with free electricity we cannot see how they will ever get this money back. Either they don't know what they are doing, but that is not very likely at this scale or they have some secret advantage that we don't know about." http://digital.di.se/artikel/knc-miner-grundaren-kina-har-fordelar-som-vi-inte-kanner-till (swedish)
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4lpecd/we_cannot_possibly_see_how_the_chinese_can_get_a/