Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

lunar

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,001
4,290
Shouldn't the "Bitcoin Dominance Index" include both Bitcoins?
This is an opening in the market I think could be capitalised on. For example, before the split I had a little short on ETH/BTC, paid off nicely over the last month. I closed everything before the fork and the dynamics have significantly changed. I would like to be able to still have the same trading pair, but that would involve exchanges listing some sort of post fork, combined token. eg ETH/(BTC+BCC)

Certainly something to consider while the volatility between XBTC and BCC remains high.
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In any case, I still like to keep only one chain in the long term. The current situation is very messy!
I think it would be fun to game out how this could happen. What % of the total hashing power has to switch over to the BCC chain before legacy bitcoin grinds to a halt?
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Pay attention, it's very, very risky to buy now: we are in a situation where all the people that want to change their BTC for BCC can do it, while everybody that want to dump BCC is unable to do so.
Wise to be cautious for many reasons, so this is true, but don't forget we are currently at 10 to 1 exchange rate.
 

AdrianX

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
2,097
5,797
bitco.in
before legacy bitcoin grinds to a halt?
LOL, so true those small blockers failed to understand this single point of failure. It can happen exponentially. Mining is voluntary and driven by economics, it is not an increasing exponential constant.

The only fix to decreasing difficulty is unlimited block size. Bitcoin Cash has issues but it has big blocks so it doesn't grind to a halt. it can get through the difficulty adjustment, SegCoin-1MB can't the networks clogs it will result in a grinds to a halt when/if a mining profitability flipping happens.
 

Peter R

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,398
5,595
I've been thinking about fork dynamics as it relates to the share of hash power on each chain. Right now, because difficulty is so high, no short-term profit-maximizing miner should be mining BCC. Hash for hash, they earn more mining BTC. And so the reasons BCC is being mined at all is as part of a longer-term or different game (e.g., to create an alternative to segwit coin or as a publicity stunt). I think most people would agree with that.

But now soon, given BCC's special difficulty reduction if blocks are very slow, difficulty will drop such that miners are profitable once again. The hash power split between BCC and BTC should then depend only on the price ratio between the two coins. I think most people would agree with that too.

But now let's imagine that the market reprices the two coins: BCC 100% higher and BTC 10% lower. Now how should the hash power be split?

If you assume that most miners are short-term profit-maximizing agents and if you further assume that the friction associated with "switching to mine a different coin" is negligible, I think the answer is "nearly all of the hash power would be mining BCC."

This would continue until the next real difficulty increase, where difficulty would go "limit up" (4X increase in difficulty), making it unprofitable to mine BCC once again (leaving only the miners playing the longer game mining). The short-term profit-maximizing miners would then switch back to BTC.

So we might see some oscillatory effects with a period of about 28 days. I guess the idea that Bitcoin is a woman is true.
 
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solex

Moderator
Staff member
Aug 22, 2015
1,558
4,695
LOL, so true those small blockers failed to understand this single point of failure. It can happen exponentially. Mining is voluntary and driven by economics, it is not an increasing exponential constant.
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Definition of Ju Jitsu
Ju Jitsu is formed from two ideograms Ju the various meanings of which are suppleness, flexibility, pliancy, gentleness and Jitsu meaning technique or art. So Ju Jitsu means the art of suppleness or flexibility. As most Ju Jitsuka (a student of Ju Jitsu) know there is nothing "gentle" about the martial art. What Ju is conveying is that Ju Jitsu does not use strength against strength, it uses the opponents strength and force of attack as a weapon against him, thus enabling a stronger or bigger attacker to be subdued.​
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That super-high difficulty which is the 1MB chain's strength becomes its weakness as hash-rate ebbs away. While oscillations in miner-power between BTC|BCC may occur that is a front for the battle of 1MB|8MB which has a foregone conclusion and is only a question of time.
 

Norway

Well-Known Member
Sep 29, 2015
2,424
6,410
I was at a bitcoin panel yesterday during the fork. We speak english with norwegian accent, so you might understand what we are saying. (I'm the guy in blue shirt and jacket).


EDIT: The guy on the left is a miner. I have known him for years. But I didn't know how big his operation was until he revealed it live on the panel. 30 Petahash, all mining bitcoin cash now!
 

torusJKL

Active Member
Nov 30, 2016
497
1,156
[...]
In any case, I still like to keep only one chain in the long term. The current situation is very messy!
The current situation is not optimal.

But we should not abandon Bitcoin Cash at the first possible turn. With Bitcoin Cash we finally have the means to continue on more open terms and not under the suppression of some self crowned wizards. (Blockstream/Core)

We need to start advancing rapidly if we want Bitcoin to keep leading. SegWit2x will not give us that.
Even less if as you suspect Core will adopt its client for the HF to stay in power.
 

torusJKL

Active Member
Nov 30, 2016
497
1,156
[...] SegCoin-1MB can't the networks clogs it will result in a grinds to a halt when/if a mining profitability flipping happens.
Maybe we will see that USD 100 fee from users who want to get their BTC on exchanges in time.
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The guy on the left is a miner. I have known him for years. But I didn't know how big his operation was until he revealed it live on the panel. 30 Petahash, all mining bitcoin cash now!
Kudos to him. I feel now small and unimportant in this whole BCC mining. :)
 

Zarathustra

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,439
3,797
I guess the idea that Bitcoin is a woman is true.
Yes, that's why it's mainly the man who plays with it:


Old and Young Women
Why stealest thou along so furtively in the twilight, Zarathustra? And what hidest thou so carefully under thy mantle?

Is it a treasure that hath been given thee? Or a child that hath been born thee? Or goest thou thyself on a thief's errand, thou friend of the evil?—

Verily, my brother, said Zarathustra, it is a treasure that hath been given me: it is a little truth which I carry.

But it is naughty, like a young child; and if I hold not its mouth, it screameth too loudly.

As I went on my way alone today, at the hour when the sun declineth, there met me an old woman, and she spake thus unto my soul:

"Much hath Zarathustra spoken also to us women, but never spake he unto us concerning woman."

And I answered her: "Concerning woman, one should only talk unto men."

"Talk also unto me of woman," said she; "I am old enough to forget it presently."

And I obliged the old woman and spake thus unto her:

Everything in woman is a riddle, and everything in woman hath one solution—it is called pregnancy.

Man is for woman a means: the purpose is always the child. But what is woman for man?

Two different things wanteth the true man: danger and diversion. Therefore wanteth he woman, as the most dangerous plaything.

Man shall be trained for war, and woman for the recreation of the warrior: all else is folly.

Too sweet fruits—these the warrior liketh not. Therefore liketh he woman;—bitter is even the sweetest woman.

Better than man doth woman understand children, but man is more childish than woman.

In the true man there is a child hidden: it wanteth to play. Up then, ye women, and discover the child in man!

A plaything let woman be, pure and fine like the precious stone, illumined with the virtues of a world not yet come.

Let the beam of a star shine in your love! Let your hope say: "May I bear the Superman!"

In your love let there be valour! With your love shall ye assail him who inspireth you with fear!

In your love be your honour! Little doth woman understand otherwise about honour. But let this be your honour: always to love more than ye are loved, and never be the second.

Let man fear woman when she loveth: then maketh she every sacrifice, and everything else she regardeth as worthless.

Let man fear woman when she hateth: for man in his innermost soul is merely evil; woman, however, is mean.

Whom hateth woman most?—Thus spake the iron to the loadstone: "I hate thee most, because thou attractest, but art too weak to draw unto thee."

The happiness of man is, "I will." The happiness of woman is, "He will."

"Lo! "Lo! now hath the world become perfect!"—thus thinketh every woman when she obeyeth with all her love.

Obey, must the woman, and find a depth for her surface. Surface is woman's soul, a mobile, stormy film on shallow water.

Man's soul, however, is deep, its current gusheth in subterranean caverns: woman surmiseth its force, but comprehendeth it not.—

Then answered me the old woman: "Many fine things hath Zarathustra said, especially for those who are young enough for them.

Strange! Zarathustra knoweth little about woman, and yet he is right about them! Doth this happen, because with women nothing is impossible?

And now accept a little truth by way of thanks! I am old enough for it!

Swaddle it up and hold its mouth: otherwise it will scream too loudly, the little truth."

"Give me, woman, thy little truth!" said I. And thus spake the old woman:

"Thou goest to women? Do not forget thy whip!"—

Thus spake Zarathustra.
 

NewLiberty

Member
Aug 28, 2015
70
442
Any price under the difficulty % is a good place to buy.

When price > difficulty percentage, it is an incentive for miners to defect from old chain to new chain.
Keeping price above difficulty is the way to walk the price up to parity and beyond.