Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

8up

Active Member
Mar 14, 2016
120
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It is interesting that the combined market caps of BCC + BTC is significantly more than the pre-split market cap a few weeks ago. Some of this could be noise, but I think there's a real effect at play and that value was actually "created" by the split.

Before the ETC/ETH split, I always thought the most important thing was network effect -- that if a coin split, the combined market cap would necessarily be smaller in "split" form than in "combined" form. Then ETC/ETH split first proved that wrong and now so far this split is demonstrating the same thing.

It will be very interesting to watch this unfold over the coming months. Great work by everyone involved in making this happen (especially @deadalnix and @freetrader)!
That's because the split will be priced in in advance. You'll never know where the price would be without a split.
 
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Roger_Murdock

Active Member
Dec 17, 2015
223
1,453
Bitcoin Cash has made me more optimistic about Bitcoin than I've been in a while, but I'm still not terribly optimistic about Bitcoin Cash itself in terms of its prospects for outgrowing and displacing the "main chain." I'm having a hard time seeing why it's not more likely that Bitcoin Cash will simply act as a catalyst that forces the Bitcoin "main chain" to actually get its shit together scaling-wise. (Basically, I still hold to the position I outlined a while back in this comment.)

I've said many times that if Bitcoin continued to cripple itself with arbitrary capacity constraints that it would eventually be outcompeted by an unhobbled alternative. The beauty of the current situation is that we now have an unhobbled "alternative" that IS Bitcoin, i.e., one that preserves the all-important Bitcoin ledger. As @Zangelbert Bingledack has noted: "Bitcoin is competing against the best possible version of itself." We're now starting to see that play out in a very literal sense. So either the main chain will scale, or a chain that provides scaling (like Bitcoin Cash) will become the main chain -- and thus the rightful holder of the "Bitcoin" name. (In other words: "Bitcoin will either get scaling or scaling will get 'Bitcoin'.")
 

AdrianX

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
2,097
5,797
bitco.in
Spinoffs are the new ICO.
I don't think so no one has risk it yet and there is a heavy cost if you make a mistake. The idea was flushed out in 2014 when @Peter R proposed it on the bitcointalk.org forum, Cash being the first actual manifestation supporting the benefits discussed.

@Zangelbert Bingledack, @freetrader and @Mengerian
didn't just pull BCC out of a hat, it was an idea that manifest over 2 years ago.

I feel like I've been hanging out with some of the brightest people on the planet people who will have shaped history looking back. Can you believe Bitcoin Cash was conceived shortly after BU and all these strategies we discussed executed like clock work.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.
Thank you all GCBU.

Quantifying the deadweight loss puts meat on the point I have been raising for many months, that it is still too early to expect market forces to pry the Core out of Bitcoin. And as @Roger_Murdock said in fact we should on the contrary be impressed by how much has already been accomplished with so little deadweight loss.

Our discussions here have made a great difference I think. Not that a fork wouldn't make more a difference, but then discussions here have laid the intellectual groundwork for such a fork, which many of us have propagated through other channels.

Here's how I see this actually playing out:

- Deadweight loss builds, including some forward-looking perception of loss (Fidelity Effect).

- Forks are tried at various stages, first getting little traction (XT; no deadweight loss yet, all anticipatory via Fidelity Effect), then getting substantial but perhaps insufficient traction (Classic; tiny but definite deadweight loss, greater anticipatory loss), and finally gaining sufficient and therefore soon overwhelming traction.

A spinoff is costless but will be ignored if too early. Whether it is better than a Classic-type fork attempt I can't say. They may be roughly equivalent in effect, because neither do much without majority uptake and both succeed if they have majority uptake (assuming 51% is enough to convince 75% to go along, which I think it is). However the spinoff method might be preferred because allows Core diehards to play in their own pool if they wish while the rest of the economy leaves them behind. (This dynamic doesn't work in reverse, because pressure to fork away from Core due to deadweight loss only *builds*, unless of course Core does somehow manage to come through with satisfactory solutions in time to stem the deadweight loss. We get to keep swinging until we hit a homerun, with circumstances getting better and better; meanwhile Blockstream must go all-in on one shot.)
Just Wow @Zangelbert Bingledack you must be a two headed alien, thanks, that's some insight and $6,852,289,933 on launch day.


100% you all rock. Bring the chat before it gets lost on slack.
 
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Zarathustra

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,439
3,797
It was pointed out to me that since it takes 6 blocks to start the trailing 6 block window for difficulty drops, it may be a loyal miner after all and not an attacker.
It will be interesting to see how it progresses from here.

Either the HK miner will prevent the fast difficulty changes, or not.
Either way, it is a serious effort. Almost 5% of total Bitcoin hash rate was used uneconomically to do this. Miners are spending a fortune in opportunity cost. It should be encouraging.

If HK is on our side, we could get down to 13% difficulty in 2 days, if against us, it can take months to reduce difficulty at all if block time is kept at just under 2 hours per block on average.

It is all up to the miners.
4 blocks during the last 11 hours:

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/blocks

Difficulty adjustment imminent?
 
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8up

Active Member
Mar 14, 2016
120
344
Spinoffs are the new ICO. Very bullish on BCC.
@Zangelbert Bingledack called this years before. Would love to hear his speculation on BCC!
Indeed. A true visionary. His knowledge is based on an excellent understanding of logic, game theory and behavioral economics. Glad to have him here.

However what most free thinkers dismiss is that development is a derivative of time. In other words it takes time to materialize an idea.
 

awemany

Well-Known Member
Aug 19, 2015
1,387
5,054
Given BCC's relative success (though I'll still call the longest SHA256 chain Bitcoin for the meanwhile ...), I think the 2x part is becoming extremely likely in November.

This means that if Greg, Luke, Adam, BtcDreck, Borg404 and so forth try to their (otherwise quite successful) social media manipulation tricks again, they'll certainly fail this time.

They are (at least Greg and Adam) intelligent enough to see that they're on a failing position now.

They are interested in power above anything else.

The only way that they can keep the rest of the power that they didn't gamble away yet is by incorporating the 2MB fork into Core.

Prediction: Before November, both Greg and Adam will warm up to the 2x part. Maybe just before the fork happens. Or maybe coincident with BCC's further success.

They might even try to spin it as "Look, we're doing the smaller, more responsible increase than BCC.".

Mwahahaha.

In any case, I still like to keep only one chain in the long term. The current situation is very messy!
 

Zarathustra

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,439
3,797
ViaBTC reduced to 68PH. They should find 3 blocks in 2 days with this hashrate. First difficulty adjustment therefore can be expected in about 4-5 days, if nobody else is mining. Or am I missing something?
 

Zarathustra

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
1,439
3,797
Bitcoin Cash is currently at 19% of Bitcoin's value, so there should be a good incentive to mine.

Fear of re-orgs?
It's not profitable to mine it at this difficulty level. I still don't get it. Is there a hidden deeper reason why the difficulty adjustment has been designed in a way that prevents profitability for weeks or even months?
 

79b79aa8

Well-Known Member
Sep 22, 2015
1,031
3,440
Strong hands will be there to catch CoreCoin ragedumpers including mine on trex when deposits open
i think you can buy Bitcoin Cash on Bittrex already by (e.g.) depositing ETH-->BTC-->BCH. i was going to do it last night but my fiat got stuck on its way to Gemini last week.
 
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megadeth

Member
Aug 28, 2015
60
212
i think you can buy Bitcoin Cash on Bittrex already by (e.g.) depositing ETH-->BTC-->BCH. i was going to do it last night but my fiat got stuck on its way to Gemini last week.
Bittrex enabled BTC deposits. I bought some more BCC to hodl already.
Meant that once BCC deposits are eventually enabled, I expect core maximalists to rage dump BCC.
Buying opp. right there.
 

Dusty

Active Member
Mar 14, 2016
362
1,172
It's not profitable to mine it at this difficulty level. I still don't get it. Is there a hidden deeper reason why the difficulty adjustment has been designed in a way that prevents profitability for weeks or even months?
I'm not knowledgeable enough but I suppose that the thing could be that the new formula for difficulty adjustment is easily gameable with malicious attackers that work this way: they wait for the legitimate miners to mine at loss and once they find the block they suddenly start to mine a few rapid blocks so that the difficulty does not adjust, and they go on this way.

Of course they mine at loss too, but if their intention is to kill the competing chain, it can be a good strategy (if it really works this way, of course).

The thing is that as the value of BCC continues to soar (0.4 BTC now!) more and more miners could choose to start mining on it and maybe resolve the impasse.
[doublepost=1501677133,1501676454][/doublepost]
Buying opp. right there.
Pay attention, it's very, very risky to buy now: we are in a situation where all the people that want to change their BTC for BCC can do it, while everybody that want to dump BCC is unable to do so.
Not only the BCC blockchain is stuck, but the exchanges require a greater number of confirmations before accepting deposits thus delaying them by days.

In other words now everybody can buy the limited BCC that was split by the exchanges, but nobody is able to sell theirs because they are stuck on their wallet.

EDIT: syntax
 
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