Coronavirus: COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown

kostialevin

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Dec 21, 2015
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@kostialevin
I have good news for you. Italy is at or already behind the peak. Why do I believe that? Because I always assumed that the infection rate is colossally underestimated (and therefore the mortality rate overestimated).
The curve is (hopefully) flattening, in perfect timing after the lockdown.
There are villages in the mountain north of Bergamo (away from the pollution) that in few weeks had the same number of death of the last entire year. Old people? Probably, but...
 

Zarathustra

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
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They've been under strict quarantine for 14 days. Herd immunity probably won't kick in until 40% population is immune, or ~400x the number of reported cases today.
Probably? Probably not.

Why do we have flu waves every winter when we voluntarily quarantine more at home than in summer? Italian families and relatives hug each other at home, which is probably even more dangerous than at the beach or on the streets.

Flu waves subside long before 40 percent are infected. Most of the population is immune.

Only Iceland has somewhat representative data. For every 2,000 infected people there is one deceased.
Converted to Lombardy, this results in 8 million infected among 4,000 deceased, which is 80 percent of the population.

I estimate the infection rate in Lombardy to be 10-40 percent.
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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The curve is (hopefully) flattening, in perfect timing after the lockdown.
There are villages in the mountain north of Bergamo (away from the pollution) that in few weeks had the same number of death of the last entire year. Old people? Probably, but...
In Switzerland, in the Canton Ticino, we have a similar pollution as beyond the border in Lombardia and even in the mountain regions there the air quality is not good. As Adriano Celentano said: la situatione della nostra terra non è buona.☹

 

cypherblock

Active Member
Nov 18, 2015
163
182
Probably? Probably not.

Why do we have flu waves every winter when we voluntarily quarantine more at home than in summer? Italian families and relatives hug each other at home, which is probably even more dangerous than at the beach or on the streets.

Flu waves subside long before 40 percent are infected. Most of the population is immune.

Only Iceland has somewhat representative data. For every 2,000 infected people there is one deceased.
Converted to Lombardy, this results in 8 million infected among 4,000 deceased, which is 80 percent of the population.

I estimate the infection rate in Lombardy to be 10-40 percent.
I'm not sure exactly what your theory is here.

We can't really compare flu vs covid-19 without taking into account their differences (incubation time, transmissibility, obviousness of onset, etc, physical differences in the virus and how it is effected by cold dry vs warm hot, vaccine available which many get vs not, etc).

Anyway, is your theory something like:
* mortality rate of Covid-19 = 1/2000 = .05% (or 2x less than flu despite other data indicating it is higher)
* about 35-140 times number of reported cases have been infected in the population but either don't know it or haven't reported it and/or generally have mild symptoms
* because of both these factors, it is useless to social distance and hurt economy (?)

Iceland (which by the way I wouldn't call representative of countries with major metropolitan regions), has about 1% infection rate in the general population of Covid-19 as reported by deCode genetics based on their first round of tests .
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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Anyway, is your theory something like:
* mortality rate of Covid-19 = 1/2000 = .05% (or 2x less than flu despite other data indicating it is higher)
It is something like 1/200 to 1/2000, because you die with a delay.

* about 35-140 times number of reported cases have been infected in the population but either don't know it or haven't reported it and/or generally have mild symptoms
Obviously.

* because of both these factors, it is useless to social distance and hurt economy (?)
I already answered this question. Social distance is not useless. An enforced lockdown of the economy is not just useless, it's insane and much more dangerous than that flu which is just dangerous for old sick people. You still refuse to answer whether you support this government enforced/guaranteed multi-trillion dollar idiocy or not.

Iceland (which by the way I wouldn't call representative of countries with major metropolitan regions), has about 1% infection rate in the general population of Covid-19 as reported by deCode genetics based on their first round of tests .
It is - together with Diamond Princess - much more representative than any other data that have been presented by those 'experts' who enforced the multi-trillion dollar lockdown, which Ioannidis called an evidence fiasco.
 

cypherblock

Active Member
Nov 18, 2015
163
182
You still refuse to answer whether you support this government enforced/guaranteed multi-trillion dollar idiocy or not.
I'm trying to make this less about you and me and more about ideas.

Some of the actions of governments I support, some go too far but for short time of 2-3 weeks I'm not adamantly opposed to. If you want to gather a list of actions that governments have taken across the globe we could debate each one but I don't think that is all that useful.

Let's focus on data, science and come up with what would be best actions to take based on that.
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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I'm trying to make this less about you and me and more about ideas.

Some of the actions of governments I support, some go too far but for short time of 2-3 weeks I'm not adamantly opposed to.
Ah yes? You believe Italy and all those hopelessly indebted governments have the money to fund a lock-down?
And you cannot be that delusional to believe that you can shut down everything and then just reopen it after 2-3 weeks.With what reason? Impending bankrupty?


Let's focus on data, science and come up with what would be best actions to take based on that.
Here is new data from Norway:

 

cypherblock

Active Member
Nov 18, 2015
163
182
Ah yes? You believe Italy and all those hopelessly indebted governments have the money to fund a lock-down?
And you cannot be that delusional to believe that you can shut down everything and then just reopen it after 2-3 weeks.With what reason? Impending bankrupty?
Sigh. It seems you don't want to have a rational discussion but just want to call everyone delusional. Let's discontinue this and go back to the usual.
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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Just another flu, y'all. Just another flu.

It is a special flu virus. A normal flu virus leads to 1 million deaths per annum.
This is the first flu virus accompanied with a panic turbo booster, released onto the world by politics, media, cheerleaders and followers. Thousands of people in panic flood the hospitals, whose staff have been sent to quarantine as a precaution.

@cypherblock

2-3 weeks.

The leader described the immense health and economic challenges as the “toughest year of our lives” and warned Australians to prepare for a shutdown that could last six months.

It should be obvious. Once you start with such a suicide strategy, you can't stop in 2 -3 weeks.
 
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Bloomie

Administrator
Staff member
Aug 19, 2015
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803
Hospitals are not overwhelmed by people who are just panicking. People who are just panicking or have mild/moderate symptoms are turned away and sent home. Hospitals are overwhelmed by people who have pneumonia and require hospitalization. That's the situation in New York.
 
Yes, what people tell from hospitals is scary.

I hope that if it slows down, governments will no longer be able to keep the shutdown. But they will be watching closely how to do it, some will use the time to increase their power, and it's a big question if the economy will recover.

I am not strictly against a shutdown, I guess slowing down a month will be good for the soul of most people. Maybe some will break bad partnerships and develop entire new live chances.

What worries me is that there a thousand idiots making death numbers and ratios a reason for government actions, while they don't understand a bit and are unable to think about how data is made. Also worried about that the public / state media in Germany starts to accuse a growing number of medical expert for fake news because they argue against fear. It's like fear is the only acceptable stats of perspection.
 

AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
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bitco.in
@Bloomie here is why the system is overwhelmed if your O2 is below average you go to stage 4. If you get to step 4 or 5 and you have health insurance or state medical cair and there is an available respirator the doctor will recommend intubation. (aka a drug-induced coma where a machine breaths for you. This from my experience is what causes death) some people have been lucky. I've seen diving equipment retrofitted to serve as a respirator. The benefit is it's assisted breathing that's non-invasive It's like a pressurized CPAP.

The bottom line is 5,000,000 years of evolution will serve you better than the plastic tube at the end of a pump and an N95 filter. I'd go so far as to say you're unlucky as far as medical assistance gores if you get the test at stage 3 and it comes back positive. if you have other complications a hospital is probably a consideration, otherwise, you'll find me at home drinking lemon tea and if I've got the energy reading the shit people post on bitco.in.
:​
 
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Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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Hospitals are not overwhelmed by people who are just panicking. People who are just panicking or have mild/moderate symptoms are turned away and sent home. Hospitals are overwhelmed by people who have pneumonia and require hospitalization. That's the situation in New York.
Doctors' offices and hospitals are always flooded with people who don't belong there. Especially in these times when this incomparable panic is fueled. There is always a flu over-treatment of factor 10 or more. In Spain, people are already fleeing the hospitals because they realize that they'll survive outside. Now they are being caught by the police and brought back to those highly dangerous buildings. .

I never visit a doctor with a flu. Most people do, but they shouldn't. I had cancer 12 years ago. I didn't panic. I treated myself with celandine, conium maculatum (Socrates cocktail), other poisonous plants, a fasting cure of 30 days etc.
I just went to check the tumor markers, which were reduced by 99 percent and surprised the doctors because natural therapies are systematically suppressed by the health and pharmaceutical mafia, one of the most criminal industries collectivism has created. Then I stopped the therapy after a few weeks. Then the tumor started to grow again and squeeze a main vein. I then needed 4 chemotherapy cycles. They told me to stay in the hospital for at least a few days after the infusions. I said no, I'm going home and going to work. It's too dangerous for me here and I don't have to occupy beds if they're always tight anyway.

With all these trillions, they don't even manage to do what the tiny little Iceland is doing: to create a database on which to take adequate measures. Is that deliberate or just indescribably stupid?

Now they are closing the economy, cutting the supply chains, sending young staff into quarantine and wondering about the chaos that is taking over the country.
Trump has always disgusted me, but he seems to be one of the few to smell what's coming with this horror strategy.

What's obvious to Ionannidis should also be obvious to other 'experts'. But it is not. They have zero understanding of complex systems. He says the same that I've been saying from the beginning.

"Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake."

When the internet closes in an unfolding domino effect, the last one should also notice that the game is over.

I hope the supporters of this mass suicide are then prepared with the necessary means to put themselves to sleep. I am. Never underestimate the stupidity of the crowd. And even if we survive this insane increase of government debt. It's not a solution. At best, it increases the drop height one more time.

@AdrianX
It has to be said clearly. All those who support the lockdown support an increase in the already intolerable world government debt level by a further 30 or more percent to combat a new flu variant. The supporters here refuse to discuss this fact. They just cry: danger! danger! danger!
Most of the time, people warn of unsustainable government debt. Now the same people are supporting an unprecedented increase in these already intolerable debts, and the same people will complain again next year about the new, even more intolerable level of debt.

Capitalism could survive long if flu- and bankruptcy-waves were allowed. But since every problem is covered up with government guarantees and new government debts, it only works until the critical point of the debt level is exceeded.

They're all socialists
 
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Bloomie

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Aug 19, 2015
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@Zarathustra Your unwillingness to read what's being written just for you is remarkable. The hospitals are overflowing with people with pneumonia and people who are coughing up blood. Not with people who have mild cold symptoms. My aunt works in the respiratory department of a major hospital in NYC. I talked to her yesterday. She is completely overworked. The number of sick people in serious condition is astounding. They don't have staff or equipment to deal with this, and the apex is still 2-3 weeks away.

But keep quoting German philosophers and making generic statements like "doctors' offices are always flooded with people who don't belong there," or tell us a story about your motorcycle accident in Italy twenty years ago. Because that's apparently more relevant than actual, observable facts of people getting sick and dying in unprecedented numbers.
 

Niner

New Member
Feb 29, 2016
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35
Data for USA Year 2017 Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf
The numbers:


Assuming the Covid-19 test is not completely accurate (false positives, false negatives) is it possible that some of the normal influenza and pneumonia deaths (about 2% of all deaths in the US) are being mistaken for Covid-19 deaths? The average for 2017 was about 152 flu and pneumonia deaths per day in the US. In the news today there were 4 deaths from Covid-19 in the US.
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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@Zarathustra Your unwillingness to read what's being written just for you is remarkable. The hospitals are overflowing with people with pneumonia and people who are coughing up blood. Not with people who have mild cold symptoms. My aunt works in the respiratory department of a major hospital in NYC. I talked to her yesterday. She is completely overworked. The number of sick people in serious condition is astounding. They don't have staff or equipment to deal with this, and the apex is still 2-3 weeks away.

But keep quoting German philosophers and making generic statements like "doctors' offices are always flooded with people who don't belong there," or tell us a story about your motorcycle accident in Italy twenty years ago. Because that's apparently more relevant than actual, observable facts of people getting sick and dying in unprecedented numbers.
Your unwillingness to read what's being written just for you is remarkable.
It is a known fact that flu treatment is over-treated. At all times. All of these people occupy hospital beds. It is a known fact that mass staff quarantine leads to staff shortages. It is a known fact that a lockdown in the economy leads to a break in the supply chain and thus even more chaos in the hospitals.
It is a well-known fact that Japan, South Korea, Iceland with early infections and without lockdown horror do not suffer this chaos like the panic states that shut down everything.

It's a shame. Chancellor on the brink of another bailout, and so called Bitcoiners are cheerleaders. And still refuse to discuss this non-solution. Crying danger! danger! danger!, that's all you can. You support a solution, where nobody needs a hospital anymore.


But keep quoting German philosophers and making generic statements like "doctors' offices are always flooded with people who don't belong there," or tell us a story about your motorcycle accident in Italy twenty years ago. Because that's apparently more relevant than actual, observable facts of people getting sick and dying in unprecedented numbers.
Unprecedented numbers? You just parrot that lie that the panic leaders are spreading.


A normal flu season creates around 1 million deaths.
A severe flu created 40 million deaths. 200 million extrapolated to today's world population.

If the numbers are unprecedented, then the panic leaders should present those numbers. The number in the whole US was 1175 serious cases as of yesterday. Your 'health' system is unable to take care of those few patients? Wow, that's really scary ...



 
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Bloomie

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Staff member
Aug 19, 2015
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You don't seem to grasp the difference between a seasonal flu and a pandemic to which there is no vaccine or cure.

A severe flu created 40 million deaths. 200 million extrapolated to today's world population.
Extrapolate further for the rate of travel today versus 1918 (I assume the 40 million refers to Spanish Flu). It took 4 weeks to cross the Atlantic back then, which is longer than the incubation period for these diseases. Using your own numbers, if COVID-19 is similar to the Spanish flu, the number of deaths will be some multiple of 200 million.

Do you think an event that leaves hundreds of millions dead is something where we will just bury all the unlucky ones, dust ourselves off, and go about our daily business?
 
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Zarathustra

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For those who are able to read the numbers, there is already evidence enough to conclude that the fatality rate is much lower.

For everybody else there is the lockdown with potentially billions of victims, created on the basic of "the world's biggest and most braindead evidence fiasco".


 
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Bloomie

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I am aware that Zangelbert Bingledack enjoys writing lengthy posts about money and bitcoin development, and sometimes he even has interesting things to say. That does not make him an authority in predicting how many people will die in a pandemic of an unknown disease. This is not the block size debate where you guys can just circle jerk, appeal to each other's authority, and feel good about yourselves. We'll listen to scientists and doctors, thanks.
 
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