Coronavirus: COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown

[cypherdoc]

As I already said, there are several reasons conceivable. I would not deny that some hospitals have difficulties dealing with the patients who are driven into the hospitals by the mass panic staged by the government and the media. It doesn't surprise me. Without such panic propaganda many would stay at home with their flu as always. When I got a flu, I never went to visit a doctor, let alone a hospital. Perhaps a majority of them should not visit the hospital, especially in Italy, where the antibiotic resistence is 50 x higher than in Iceland. When they quarantine all positive tested employees and those around them, it is no wonder that there is a shortage of staff.
40 years ago, I had a motorbike accident in Milano. I know the hospitals there. I guess it's not much better there today. Once upon a time a friend of mine has been hospitalized with a bicycle accident in Italy. 2 days later when he got the first visits of his relatives, they found him in the hospital bed, still wearing his cycling cloths....

Oh, no doubt there will be hell to pay for the strategy being employed of mass societal shutdown. Unemployment may go to 20% and the stock market is pricing in lots of financial pain. Even the bond markets are teetering, which i highly recommend all of you watch carefully as that will be the ultimate tell of how bad this gets. It may not be the best response and admittedly alot is being driven by paranoia from people who don't seem to understand the economic consequences. But yall have to admit you have no clue what the consequences could be of the opposite carefree strategy. None of us do, that's why the virus is called novel. Skeptics have to check their egos at the door and ask themselves how much of their skepticism is being driven by their financial losses. Probably alot. Personally, from an epidemiological standpoint, I do think we'll get thru this sooner than later, mostly driven by the warmer weather of the coming spring /summer. The economic fallout is a different story. We were due . But social distancing no doubt works (6ft et al) but that doesn't mean you have to shut down all businesses. The virus is the last straw of what has broken the back of the already present bubble economy and what history will blame. That's just how our media works. It is what it is and everyone here should have the financial chops to know how to deal with it; as long as we don't get rioting and tanks in the streets.

 

[kostialevin]

40 years ago, I had a motorbike accident in Milano. I know the hospitals there.

40 years ago and you affirm to know how the hospital are here now? Not bad.

Flu exists also here every year and no one is panicking now. A lot of people just don't like to be obliged to stay home.

On a timespan of 100 years wellbeing has a 100% mortality. The problem is when there is something that accelerates the process.
This is not ebola, it's just a harder and more contagious flu.. and this is the problem.

I wish all the best to the rest of the world but I'm really curious to see what will happen in a two weeks time.

 

[cypherdoc]

The problem is THERE IS NO TREATMENT. Young to old people all over the world have mild respiratory issues like asthma. If they get this highly contagious virus that rapidly moves deep into their lungs, they're finished. Even if you're just a smoker, same thing.

 

[cypherdoc]

When I got a flu, I never went to visit a doctor, let alone a hospital.

If you do this, educate yourself and be extremely vigilant. If you get spiking fevers to the ~102 level (not 100 consistent with viral), chest pain (although this virus appears to cause this), any productive cough of yellowish to greenish sputum, call your doc immediately at the very least or go to the ER. you most likely are developing a bacterial superinfection which greatly complicates matters and will at least require oral if not IV antibiotics. If it escalates, intubation.

 

[kostialevin]

Exactly. there's no treatment and the time it takes to get out of the illness (when in ICU) it's quite long.

 

[cypherdoc]

His sentiment is understandable. Going into the hospital opens up an entirely different set of risks from an infectious disease standpoint. If you get instrumented, like intubation or bronchoscopy, or even a simple IV, now you're at risk for MRSA, which would probably kill you in the setting of a coincident covid pneumonia.

 

[cbeast]

Where I live they are telling people not to go to the hospital unless they have life-threatening conditions. The hospitals are practically empty. This doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

 

[BldSwtTrs]

The letality rate is 20x-25x the letality rate of the seasonal flu.

The biggest mistake that is done by people minimizing covid is the fact that there is an average of 14 days between the apparition of symptons and the death.

So you need to divide (number of death)/(number of cases 14 days ago) to approach the real letality rate, instead of (number of death)/(number of cases). Even if you throw in a bunch of unsymptomatic cases that go undetected, the death rate is still horrific.

In South Korea that has mass tested its population (so we can assume there are fewer undetected asympotmatic cases there), the letality rate is currently 1.2% and its increasing due to the 14 days windows that I have mentionned.

20x-25x the letality rate of the seasonal flu is akin to Spanish Flu. This is some serious shit.

 

[cypherdoc]

Also, if you decide to stay at home, you should go to the hospital if you have dizziness, significant shortness of breath, confusion, or any mental incoherence, as your O2 saturation could be dropping, probably the major determinant for intubation in this setting.

 

[AdrianX]

We're getting numerous first hand reports from doctors and other medical professionals from multiple disparate geographical locations (Washington, NY, China, Italy) about overwhelming concentrations of severe cases/deaths flooding local hospitals, the severity of which none have ever seen before. Can it all be just a mass widespread delusion?

People die from a combination of the respirator and the flue, people end up on the respirator because doctors follow the symptom flow chart. It's inevitable they would be overwhelmed its a result of following the flowchart. Every one of the 10 people I know who voluntarily took the doctor's advice to go on the respirator died it was an expensive death and they were unconscious for it. The only person I know who survived was extremely fit, he came off it with one functioning lung.

 

[Zarathustra]

Intubation in infected hospitals? Not with me.
31 of 32 died.

Drastic words from a German forum.

Das zeigt nur eines - Das Gelbe Forum: Das Forum für Elliott-Wellen, Börse, Wirtschaft, Debitismus, Geld, Zins, Staat, Macht

yet another little forum

www.dasgelbeforum.net

Translation:

Not much. The cases were serious. Every day before Covid-19, 31 out of 32 serious cases died if I made the right choice with the data and the ventilators. I just have to use the hospitals in Munich and Hamburg as a database. It could also be artificially ventilated 96 out of 98, depending on what is attached to the machine.

What is this nonsense about?

Why do 93-year-old former chain-smokers and COPD patients hang on such machines and then complain that 31 out of 32 ventilated severe cases die?

Who cares?

I am interested in the fate of young families with 2 children who are healthy and have saved a house or who may have to pay off.

And their world is now collapsing because some semi-existents who have messed up their lives through smoking, drinking, eating sugar and careless living want to disgustly hold on to life and be saved. And politics also supports this with a misunderstood humanity. Then choose THE LEFT, whose apostles are already diligently showing that "human lives are above economy". That idiot forgets that an economic crisis will cost more lives than COVID-19.

So flat and unreflected, that's really disgusting.

EVERYTHING IS RUINED BY SOME OLD CHRONIC ILL AT THE COST OF THE HEALTHY, YOUNG, ACTIVE AND WORKING SOCIETY!

WHAT'S THE MEANING OF THIS MADNESS?

 

[Zarathustra]

40 years ago and you affirm to know how the hospital are here now? Not bad.

That's why I wrote: I guess it's the same today. I suspect it based on various information. I don't live far from Lombardy.

Flu exists also here every year and no one is panicking now. A lot of people just don't like to be obliged to stay home.

On a timespan of 100 years wellbeing has a 100% mortality. The problem is when there is something that accelerates the process.
This is not ebola, it's just a harder and more contagious flu.. and this is the problem.

It seems to be more contagious because for the majority of infected people it's not harder! It's milder. It seems to be harder for old people with other diseases.

 

[AdrianX]

The problem is THERE IS NO TREATMENT. Young to old people all over the world have mild respiratory issues like asthma. If they get this highly contagious virus that rapidly moves deep into their lungs, they're finished. Even if you're just a smoker, same thing.

The best person to control your lungs when you're ill is you, not a machine. The cilia in your bronchiole and trachea have evolved to move fluids one way - out of the lungs. I'm a medical device designer, not a doctor. I've watched a loved one die on a respirator. I swor to design better machines unfortunately harsh life circumstances got in the way.

The procedure of ventilating the lungs is to literally put you in a drug coma to prevent your urge to cough, coughing is the body's method to expel fluid from the lungs. Being in a coma in a hospital and not moving is enough to cause blood clots and kill you.

When you are intubated they then put a plastic tube in your trachea, it has no cilia. When liquid builds up they suck it out with a suction tube. How do they know the liquid is building up? The body goes into a state of shock and your heart rate spikes notifying a nurse of pending cardiac arrest to come and check you. If they here fluid bubbling in your trachea then that's they suck it out - if your heart rate drops, they then leave.

If the hospital is at capacity then there may be insufficient nurses to stop people from drowning in the fluid they can't cough up, and elderly people who are not moved about twice a day have additional risks they may develop a blood clot, a stroke or a heart attack.

I knew people who have walked into hospitals suspected of SARS been put on a ventilator only to die later from complications.

It would not surprise me that 90% hospital staff have no actual ICU experience with ventilators, and to hear hospitals are at capacity leads me to one conclusion. You are better off at home.

 

[Zarathustra]

Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it?
BY GEAROID REIDY
BLOOMBERG

• MAR 20, 2020
  ARTICLE HISTORY
• PRINT
• SHARE

Japan was one of the first countries outside of China hit by the coronavirus and now it’s one of the least-affected among developed nations. That’s puzzling health experts.
Unlike China’s draconian isolation measures, the mass quarantine in much of Europe and big U.S. cities ordering people to shelter in place, Japan has imposed no lockdown. While there have been disruptions caused by school closures, life continues as normal for much of the population. Tokyo rush-hour trains are still packed and restaurants remain open.

Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it?

While there have been disruptions caused by school closures, life continues as normal for much of the population.

www.japantimes.co.jp

No lockdown, no mass quarantines, no totalitarian bullshit measures.
Very good decision. Congratulation Japan!

You should not cancel the Olympic Games and distribute all medals among yourself. You deserve it.

 

[AdrianX]

Where I live they are telling people not to go to the hospital unless they have life-threatening conditions. The hospitals are practically empty. This doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

Areas like this will have a normal mortality rate (pre being plugged into the networks hive mind.)

The biggest mistake that is done by people minimizing covid is the fact that there is an average of 14 days between the apparition of symptons and the death.

I'm, not a minimizer, I'm a practicalist. I'm not in a state of denial. People should be sensitive to the impact, self-isolate. What is asinine is the response, the appeal to authorities to act. Authorities should educate people on the risks and expected behaviours, people then act in their best interests. We are not 2 anymore.

probably the major determinant for intubation in this setting.

this is exactly what doctors are doing and could explain the high death rate.

 

[cypherdoc]

this is exactly what doctors are doing and could explain the high death rate.

i really doubt that given that we know ventilators and hence intubation is in shortage. ppl that get intubated are more likely in the death spiral of the infection and your high mortality rates with intubation are being conflated as the cause when in fact it is a coincidental. you do bring up good points of cough suppression but most intubated patients are exhibiting low O2 saturation b/c their lungs are exhausted at trying to move enough air thru their alveoli. they don't get intubated to suppress their cough reflex except in times of purposeful medically induced coma. are ventilators useful? absolutely, as plenty of ppl have come off them cured. should they be used for the elderly in shortage conditions? that's a philosophical question. but we've kinda moved beyond the point of the discussion. is covid something to take seriously? absolutely, imo. are the stats accurate? we'll know in a few months. is it worth shutting down borders and thus the economies of the world? probably not. one thing i'm sure of; i don't want to get it and i'm doing everything i can to not.

How do they know the liquid is building up? The body goes into a state of shock and your heart rate spikes notifying a nurse of pending cardiac arrest to come and check you. If they here fluid bubbling in your trachea then that's they suck it out - if your heart rate drops, they then leave.

this is not true. nurses are supposed to suction your tube on a regular schedule to prevent build up.

drug comas are usually induced for brain traumas or seizures.

 

[Zarathustra]

Treated to death ...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30317-2/fulltext

 

[cypherdoc]

that's a good article and helpful. but this is why they call medicine an art as well. suppose your patient has an underlying chronic asthmatic condition that has been definitively proven to respond to steroids. and they can't breathe from the rampant inflammation in their alveoli. do you give them steroids? of course you do to help them breathe pre-intubation so as to hopefully avoid intubation. will it exacerbate covid? we don't really know. what if they have no underlying respiratory condition yet their O2 is down to 80% saturation from just covid and they can't breathe due to exhaustion. do you throw up your hands as the doc and tell the patient and relatives that since there is no known tx you can't do anything and that intubation doesn't help? unlikely not, unless you want to get sued for negligence. the novelty of such a problem as this causes hardship with difficult choices all the way around. in the case of steroids you might try a low dose to see if you get a response and then increase or stop depending on the response. the last thing you want to do is cause harm and with low dose harm is unlikely. for example, if i get covid, i would definitely try Plaquenil as a Hail Mary and steroid if bad enough, despite just anecdotal evidence. no one is profitting from this exercise with covid; at least not the front line medical personnel. they're just trying to help stop this brushfire and not die themselves.

unfortunately, some have died:

China's hero doctor was punished for telling truth about coronavirus

In their botched handling of the tragic death of Li Wenliang, the Chinese doctor who sounded the alarm on the Wuhan coronavirus, authorities in Beijing seem to want it both ways, writes Michael Bociurkiw.

www.cnn.com

 

[AdrianX]

this is not true. nurses are supposed to suction your tube on a regular schedule to prevent build up.

I agree with your post, however, intubation is best suited for trama, not an immune system failure. The above quote is not based on my first-hand experience in a top-notch hospital. It's based on a predetermined schedule. Unfortunately, the body doesn't adhere to predetermined schedules. Nurses are sometimes too busy and react to situations that happen between scheduled suctions. Add more patents and you add more complications. not to mention every suction can end up creating a damaging the cilia in your bronchiole and trachea, leaving permanent damage.

I, respect those who would rather avoid exposure but I don't believe we need government intervention to achieve that, just let people know the reality when they get into a metal box they may not be let out for a couple of weeks. people will adjust their behaviours.

We've been trained a new generation, for exsample, my kids can't take nut anything to school, why? because there may be someone at school with a nut allergy. Solution: the authority will remove anyone who does not comply with the rules from the school. The results are everybody gives up a little freedom for someone else's security.

When I was at school the people with nut allergies always asked before eating something, nowadays it's so F'd up we create safe spaces where they don't need to learn to deal with adversity.

I got a chocolate sample for a new chocolate design the other day, I wanted to know what was in it. the ingredients read: may or may not contain nuts. the world has gone nuts. those with problems need to adapt, not the other way around.

drug comas are usually induced for brain traumas or seizures.

And to prevent coughing and gagging on a ventilator.

 

[Zarathustra]

we don't really know. what if they have no underlying respiratory condition yet their O2 is down to 80% saturation from just covid and they can't breathe due to exhaustion. do you throw up your hands as the doc and tell the patient and relatives that since there is no known tx you can't do anything and that intubation doesn't help? unlikely not, unless you want to get sued for negligence.

That seems to be a main problem. Same in politics.
They always think they have to do something when in fact laissez faire would do less harm.
The amount of chemical cocktails that people are given is shocking.