Coronavirus: COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown

[cypherblock]

There have been no grounds for any special reaction to Covid-19 over a typical bad flu year.

Are you comparing to 1918 as your "bad flu year" ? Because from what I've seen, even estimates that try to account for non-reported cases in the denominator still come out with numbers like 1% mortality, 10x higher than seasonal.

See: http://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-looks-less-deadly-than-first-reported-but-its-definitely-not-just-a-flu-133526

They will say it is because we panicked to an unprecedented degree, or because we found a vaccine just in time to avert catastrophe, just like BTCers say the UASF defeated the miners or that the price proves Core was right.

Well at least you tied it back to Bitcoin, so kudos for that. However, if you think that actual social distancing (not mere attempts) has no effect on the spread of disease, then you are simply wrong. Whether it merely slows the spread or actually results in significantly fewer cases, remains to be seen.

But for certain it is unclear if we can be disciplined enough to carry out social distancing, isolation. Recent photos in my town of kids partying now that they are out of school, indicates that sometimes efforts can indeed backfire, and if that kind of thing is wide spread and continues, then we are indeed going through a lot of pain for nothing. I'm somewhat hopeful that those incidents were a brief initial reaction, and that slowing the disease spread is possible.

 

[Zarathustra]

One out of 10 people who test positive develops an acute viral pneumonia and needs hospital care. This is statistically accurate.

After watching the video above I stopped to argue this way.

One out of 10 people with acute viral pneumonia tests positive of corona, among other viruses! This is statistically accurate and has always been the case the last years. Corona viruses are nothing new.

In Germany, there are some 25 deaths out of 10'000 detected and 100'000? undetected cases. Similar relation in Norway. That doesn't look more dangerous than the seasonal. And who guarantees that those few victims died of corona and not of the flu?

And then there is hystery and panic, distributed by the media, politicians and their advisors. That's the difference to a normal flu season. Everybody with flu symptoms want's to be hospitalized now, even though it's the most dangerous place to go if you want to get various infects.

If the health system collapses, no one will need crypto or fiat, and the damage to the economy will be insignificant because we would be going back to using sacks of grain for currency (and probably milling that grain ourselves).

If the economy collapses (which it will if you shut it down!) no one will need hospitals, because there will be no electricity anymore and no cooling of the nuclear power plants which then distribute their inventory into the atmosphere.

 

[Zarathustra]

Are you comparing to 1918 as your "bad flu year" ? Because from what I've seen, even estimates that try to account for non-reported cases in the denominator still come out with numbers like 1% mortality, 10x higher than seasonal.

From what I've seen South Korea comes with numbers like 1% mortality of reported cases. Just a tiny fraction of the total population has been tested.

 

[rocks]

One out of 10 people who test positive develops an acute viral pneumonia and needs hospital care. This is statistically accurate.

The problem is you don't know the denominator, and if you don't know the denominator there are no stats.

Currently the numbers for CORVID-19 look very similar to influenza based on those who seek medical assistance. With influenza they estimate a much larger number of people have it than those who seek medical assistance, which increases the denominator by more than one order of magnitude.

So far in all cases as the size of the population tested increases the estimated rate of severity goes down. We also have two scenarios where a full population was tested, the first cruise ship and that korean church, adjusted for the population age of those groups this is on the order of a very bad flu.

Also this

What we are witnessing is how the US has become a nation completely risk adverse due to fear and legal consequences. If one area closes something then everyone has to also. It's nuts. Currently there are <100 new cases in the US per day, if 100% of those required hospitalization its noise in the capacity of our medical system. BTW 2000+ people died last week from influenza to put it in comparison. A more sensible approach would be to let the working age population continue on as normal while more elderly practice social distancing, plus extra vigilance in nursing homes, etc.

Look at the EU, there are a few countries that are just going to let to go through, I bet they will be fine.

At that point everyone, especially all of the service workers who lost their jobs, will start to question if the cure was worst than the disease. It is one thing to cut of china to stem the flow a bit, it is another is completely shut down the economy and trash everyone's lives.

 

[Bloomie]

@rocks "Seeking medical assistance" is somewhat different from getting intubated. People seek medical assistance for colds all the time. They don't end up in the ICU in the numbers that we're seeing now.

 

[rocks]

Those 2000+ people who died last week from influenza weren't in the ICU? Because they and many more were.

Let's be clear what the issue is, it is not that there aren't enough hospital beds or ICU capacity or even the number of people who will die.

The issue is this virus specifically requires respiratory aid for people that have a bad version of it, and the virus will cause geographic spikes in demand for respiratory aid that are beyond the capacity of that locality. That is why only 100 new cases a day can be an issue, because if 50 of those are in one locality that over subscribes respiratory aid in that locality which leaves some people to die without aid.

It is quite likely that if we let the virus burn through the fatality rate would be similar to a bad flu season, which everyone seems OK with every year.

However it would be a PR issue that 10K died waiting outside for a ventilator and no one to help them. The fatality numbers aren't the issue, the bad PR is. And for that we destroyed the economy.

Look maybe I am looking at this wrong and we need to shut everything down to save 10-50K lives, but those numbers and more die every year from viruses and it hasn't been an issue before. No one suggested last year that we shut everything down to save the 20K people who unfortunately died, why this year? BTW 3 generations ago before antibiotics the fatality rate from staph and other infections makes this look trivial, but it was a fact of life and people carried on and built the modern era.

Korea BTW did this perfectly (I have spent a lot of time there and really respect that country). They did this by testing everyone, and isolating cases. That works. High levels of testing is the key and does not require shutting anything down. But the US botched that so here we are.

 

[cypherblock]

...20K people who unfortunately died, why this year?

Because we don't really know if it will be 20k or 400k, and that's a massive difference.

How would an outbreak look different from Covid-19 if it did in fact have a mortality rate 20x greater that seasonal flu?

 

[AdrianX]

We don't have the infrastructure to support that many pneumonia patients in serious condition who may require a transfer to the ICU

This is known and true.

1 out of 10 people who test positive develops an acute viral pneumonia and needs hospital care

This need is subjective. Often the treatment in combination with the disease is more deadly than the disease.

Most doctors don't practice intuitive medicine, they practice flowchart medicine and if the flowchart suggests intubation you intimate. Intubation often ends in death.

 

[rocks]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).

Then in Italy apparently all of the fatalities involve secondary conditions and otherwise healthy people have mostly been fine.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

Not saying it is not a serious disease, it is, but humans have always lived with some level of risk and many people die every year from infections. It is unfortunate but also part of the human condition.

Shutting everything down, preventing people from earning a livelihood and governments issuing travel restrictions and forcing people to remain in their homes (or where ever they got stuck) is a massive over reaction to the risk that we all live with every day and is a basic aspect of being human.

That said it's been awhile. I hope everyone here is doing well and taking care of themselves.

 

[Christoph Bergmann]

In Germany we have something like 14k cases and less then 50 dead. Thats below a death rate of 0.5 percent. And we just started to test, so I assume the number or infected is over 30k. So death rate is really low. I also haven't heard of hospitals running out of icu units.

But I heard of politicians trying to change the constitution, to pass laws against fake news, and I have heard of hundred thousands of people in fear of losing their job. It's quite asymmetric.

On the other side, I think it is very healthy for the world and humans to shutdown for one or two months.

 

[kostialevin]

Numbers can tell everything, it depends on how they are shown.
Numbers apart, I can understand that it's not easy to believe to what's going on if someone isn't living where it's happening.

 

[Zarathustra]

What's happening in overall mortality in Europe is shown on euromomo.eu
New weekly data just came in. There is no excess mortality in europe this winter until today. Neither in Italy nor anywhere else. The numbers are even lower than in the previous winter seasons.
I would not deny that in some regions there is high hospital mortality these weeks, but as Dr, Wogard in the mentioned video explained, that could be because everybody with some flu symptoms is running in panic to the hospitals, which is the most dangerous place to be, especially in Italy.

EURO MOMO - outputs - zscore total

And then there is this:

Deaths from pneumonia, by age

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.

ourworldindata.org

 

[cypherblock]

What's happening in overall mortality in Europe is shown on euromomo.eu

FYI from that site: "Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with caution. Therefore, although no increased mortality is currently observed in the EuroMOMO figures, it does not rule out that increased mortality occur in some areas or in some age groups, including mortality related to COVID-19. "

But yeah overall deaths in the "scheme of things" since January are not that high. Doesn't mean letting everyone just treat it as business as usual is the right reaction given the growth potential. It is the growth of deaths and also impact on health care system that is of immediate concern.

Failure for some in this thread to understand, or at least take seriously, the basic implications of a novel virus with "potentially" high mortality rate is fairly astounding. Yes I know, so many of you are in the "Fake news" camp, but while it is completely valid that news TV programs really aren't that discriminating and have to fill a lot of time, it is also valid that in this particular case no one fucking knows for sure the outcome.

Even this guy, who buys into the "will be like a bad flu season" (whatever that means), still indicates that social distancing is key:

"Another reason the infection rate has slowed has to do with the physical distance guidelines. “You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”

He cites some potentially positive things like "Based on these statistics, Levitt said, he concluded that many people are just naturally immune to the virus.", but then goes also says “Currently, I am most worried about the US. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.”

Note that "healthcare system will collapse" thing, maybe should have an underscore :|

 

[rocks]

Entire state of California is now under lock down, it is strictly illegal to leave your home except under the listed exceptions. They say they're not going to arrest anyone, but it's still illegal and they can if they want to. This includes the northern Jefferson state counties which are very rural and have zero cases so far.

And the exceptions?
- Every person who works for the government. Are you a janitor at a school, congratulations you are a government employee and are free to travel at any time any where
- Also gardeners, hair stylers, landscapers and anyone else who does "services" for the elite, you are free to travel at your pleasure

But small business owners and employees, office workers, etc.? It is illegal for you to travel and they are just being nice in not arresting you, yet.

And how does the LA government announce that everyone needs to do their part and stay isolated, by getting all the important people together for a group conference.

 

[Zarathustra]

But yeah overall deaths in the "scheme of things" since January are not that high. Doesn't mean letting everyone just treat it as business as usual is the right reaction given the growth potential. It is the growth of deaths and also impact on health care system that is of immediate concern.

Nobody here promoted 'business as usual'. Nobody here doesn't support social distancing. But some writers here, me and others, warn that you cannot lockdown the economy and the society, because that leads to much more deaths than a flu that kills 1-5 % of very old people who already suffer from other deseases.

It seems that you even don't have the stomach to present your opinion, whether you support the lockdown idiocy or not.
I have an opinion and am convinced that if they do it for months, it will lead to chaos and to the death of billions instead of thousands or millions. I would like to know who supports that and who doesn't.
You should be responsible for the things that you support, and I don't know what you support.

Failure for some in this thread to understand, or at least take seriously, the basic implications of a novel virus with "potentially" high mortality rate is fairly astounding.

Orwellian argumentation. A lockdown of the society/economy based on potentially higher mortality than on Princess Diamond is irresponsible, criminal behavior. Potential damage is much greater that way. As the German writer Peter Scholl-Latour wrote years ago: "Wir leben im Zeitalter der Massenverblödung, insbesondere der medialen Massenverblödung." (We are living in the age of mass stupidity, expecially in media stupidity.
Another one wrote: "10 Germans are dumber than 5 Germans".
I don't think that it's necessarily true, but it seems to be true that 80 million Germans are dumber than 80 Germans, and 40 million Californians are dumber than 40 Californians. Translation: the postpaleolitic society (hypercollectivism) is dumber than the paleolitic community. The latter never ever committed suicide by a lockdown of essential activities, but you seem ready to do exactly this. It seems that you are one of those hopeless lemmings.

At least in Germany some of the main 'influencers' of the goverment and the society are starting to realise it: "Imprisoning 95 percent of the population because of a small minority, the collateral damage is far too high." Alexander Kekule, a leading virologist and government advisor.
"I don't think we can continue what we are doing now for months," said medical president Klaus Reinhardt to the editorial network in Germany. "The fears and worries would overwhelm people psychologically." This creates a ghostly atmosphere "that extremely frightens people," he told the RND. "It can also lead to the breakdown of solidarity in society, which we now urgently need." He advocated a clear limitation of the restrictions in everyday life and refused to curfew.

Yes I know, so many of you are in the "Fake news" camp, but while it is completely valid that news TV programs really aren't that discriminating and have to fill a lot of time, it is also valid that in this particular case no one fucking knows for sure the outcome.

I'm neither in a Trump nor a Biden fake news camp. It's essentially the same bullshit. Have a look into the mirror! You indeed fucking don't know the outcome of a shutdown of the society, when it's fucking obvious: "the collateral damage is far too high"

Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg: "Solution to the corona problem: isolate panic makers"

Note that "healthcare system will collapse" thing, maybe should have an underscore :|

With a lockdown of the economy, it won't just be the health care system that collapses.

 

[cypherblock]

Nobody here promoted 'business as usual'. Nobody here doesn't support social distancing. But some writers here, me and others, warn that you cannot lockdown the economy and the society, because that leads to much more deaths than a flu that kills 1-5 % of very old people who already suffer from other deseases.

When I hear "just like a bad flu season" that indicates "business as usual" if that is not the intent then perhaps come up with a different way to express those feelings.

I support self enforced social distancing and distance learning in public schools for a trial period of 2-4 weeks. Businesses that just have people sitting in cubes all day should also tell everyone to work remotely for a while, others can hopefully adapt a bit as well. None of that means you have to run around crying "we're all going to die". Let's see if the spread can be slowed down and more data can shed new light on whether this kind of shutdown is helping or even necessary.

There are certainly long lasting damages that can occur if we take things too far.

warn that you cannot lockdown the economy and the society, because that leads to much more deaths than a flu

There are also studies that show recessions cause lower mortality rates. People have fewer heart attacks and fewer traffic accidents. Whether this applies to the current situation requires more study (something we can do while we are all at home for a bit).

We don't have to all behave like China, dragging people out of their homes, forcing them to live with other infected people.

 

[Zarathustra]

When I hear "just like a bad flu season" that indicates "business as usual" if that is not the intent then perhaps come up with a different way to express those feelings.

A bad flu season leads to more than a million deaths. There is no evidence that you should panic more than compared to a bad flu season.

I support self enforced social distancing and distance learning in public schools for a trial period of 2-4 weeks. Businesses that just have people sitting in cubes all day should also tell everyone to work remotely for a while, others can hopefully adapt a bit as well. None of that means you have to run around crying "we're all going to die". Let's see if the spread can be slowed down and more data can shed new light on whether this kind of shutdown is helping or even necessary.

It seems you don't know what's going on. Most businesses in many contries are already locked down. Not self enforced. Government enforced. They don't work remotely. Volkswagen, Tesla, Porsche workers don't produce remotely. They've been enforced to stop working.

There are also studies that show recessions cause lower mortality rates. People have fewer heart attacks and fewer traffic accidents. Whether this applies to the current situation requires more study (something we can do while we are all at home for a bit).

Recession? Peak delusion. People actually believe that a lockdown of main parts of the society/economy will just lead to a recession. Unbelievable.


And I still don't see what exactly you are supporting. On the one hand you defend the lockdown and on the other hand you talk about 'self-enforced'.

 

[Christoph Bergmann]

German companies have not been enforced by government to shutdown. For automobile producers it have been the workers collectives (Gewerkschaften). Which is good, because they will be careful to not risk too many jobs.

--
To add something. I researched about the so often quoted Wodarg. Some science journalists said it is irresponsible to give him a platform. I asked if they have a source to refute his central points - that Corona long existed and was the reason of 10-20% of flu / cold introduced severe respiratory syndroms and deaths, and that new Corona is not more dangerous than a flu. After some time I found two three articles. All have been vaguely ad hominem, fact-claiming that he talks bullshit, comparing his arguments to that of climate change deniers (as if this says anything), and have been very short about the central points. It literally was not more than "it is more dangerous. period" or "look at what's happening in italy." This was striking for me. If you do a very short research, you find out that things in italy are much more complicated (air pollution, hospitals also exhausted by last flu epidemy, 99% or deaths had severe other illnesses, death democraphics very similar to normal death democraphics), and if you take all factors into account, it's short of being a proof of the severity.

I don't know what is right and not. There has been an estimation that in Wuhan 1.9 million people have been infected, and in Iceland they made large scale tests with people without syndroms and found out that about 1 percent of the population is infected. So it travels very fast, but mortality is very low, most likely even much lower than 0.2 percent. The unknown factor seems to be how many are in need of ICU, it's possible that the virus properties can overwhelm health systems if not stopped. That's the only real bad thing data suggest to happen, maybe.

But what seems more clear everyday for me is that we risk a lot of freedom and economics based on data which is far away from proofing that it is needed. In Germany people are campaigning for a full curvew, while the employment of hundredthousands is on serious risk.

 

[kostialevin]

It's in italian but google translator still works.. https://www.ilgiorno.it/bergamo/cronaca/cornavirus-morti-esercito-1.5073459

Unfortunately this isn't a fake news.

Sorry, I know that this is OT, no more post from me about the coronavirus.

 

[Norway]

I'm getting more certain every day that it's just the flu.