Wall Observer

[adamstgbit]

market seems happy to scoop up any coins bears are dropping.
i think we'll see a rise on the weekend.

 

[Norway]

market seems happy to scoop up any fiat bulls are dropping.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[adamstgbit]

lol thats true too i guess
but the 10 day looks really bullish to me, i see good support.
and zooming out we see that we are nearing the end of a consolidation period
and we have bullish news to look forward to, scaling bitcoin and bitcoin's halfing.
I think everything hangs in the balance as we watch the scaling story unfold...
will miners accept segwit? will we fork off? will ETH scale better than bitcoin???
i think the FUD around all these questions has been priced in...
small downside risk ( if scaling bitcoin is delayed further, drop below 400 )
and big upside potential ( scaling bitcoin works out and renew confidence, rise above 500)
[doublepost=1460085445,1460084588][/doublepost]i think its kinda likely segwit will not be everything everyone hopes it will be, it'll be to little to late, it'll take months for everyone to opt in, it'll make custom wallets on gambling sites crash, etc.
and i think its likely LN will be pretty useless for bringing bitcoin to the avg joe

but i sold a bunch on this FUD, and i expect mostly everyone that was going to sell on this FUD has done so already.

so the downside risk is more or less priced in... we should be moving up until this FUD is proved to be justified, or WAY up if the FUD is proved to be unjustified
[doublepost=1460085577][/doublepost]i'm not buying or selling another coin until the storyline moves.

 

[solex]

Scenario

SegWit is meant to be released in April, and the market is coiled like a spring waiting for major news.

SeqWit release announcement = big price spike (at least until the realism sets in that it might not activate for a long time).

Peak

I'm thinking that a SegWit peak will blow past the recent $502 before profit-taking looks good.
$600 perhaps?

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[8up]

No volatility phase is almost over. The triangle ends in 10 days. Outbreaks generally occur some days ahead.

I think we are set-up for a lil outbreak <36h.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[adamstgbit]

Scenario

SegWit is meant to be released in April, and the market is coiled like a spring waiting for major news.

SeqWit release announcement = big price spike (at least until the realism sets in that it might not activate for a long time).

Peak

I'm thinking that a SegWit peak will blow past the recent $502 before profit-taking looks good.
$600 perhaps?

I think you're being a little optimistic with your targets.
resistance at 500 might not be broken until its clear that scaling bitcoin is well underway
i'm looking for segwit to be accepted slowly but surely while more improvments are rolled out things like thin blocks, and such.
once its made clear that there is light at the end of the tunnel then i target 750 and beyond.
i think we'll really top out when LN is about to be released, that will be a gr8 time to sell
my plan is to sell the enthusiasm and then after getting a chance to evaluate LN touch and feel it, then i'll think about where to buy back...

[doublepost=1460131551,1460130721][/doublepost]i was thinking 32000$ in less than 2 years, but i've hit a major setback and delth with it badly, very badly, this will really hurt for a long time, it hurt investor confidence and trust in the core dev team, altho we can do some damage control, confidence and trust isn't easy to get back, the damage is done... and so i am forced to revise my target down 1 order of magnitude

>3200$ in <2years.

 

[JayJuanGee]

I think you're being a little optimistic with your targets.
resistance at 500 might not be broken until its clear that scaling bitcoin is well underway
i'm looking for segwit to be accepted slowly but surely while more improvments are rolled out things like thin blocks, and such.
once its made clear that there is light at the end of the tunnel then i target 750 and beyond.
i think we'll really top out when LN is about to be released, that will be a gr8 time to sell
my plan is to sell the enthusiasm and then after getting a chance to evaluate LN touch and feel it, then i'll think about where to buy back...

[doublepost=1460131551,1460130721][/doublepost]i was thinking 32000$ in less than 2 years, but i've hit a major setback and delth with it badly, very badly, this will really hurt for a long time, it hurt investor confidence and trust in the core dev team, altho we can do some damage control, confidence and trust isn't easy to get back, the damage is done... and so i am forced to revise my target down 1 order of magnitude

>3200$ in <2years.

Hey Adam (or anyone else who may be interested in addressing the below consideration):

I think that I kind of understand your transformation in thinking, and personally, I believe that even a few months ago you were much more bullish than me, especially with your earlier predictions of $32k in 2 years, yet I would be interested to hear your thinking regarding the range of the percentage of your BTC that you are going to be willing to trade (sell and then buy back later).

I have considered some of these ideas for my own BTC portfolio, and I have a few different scenarios in mind that could cause me to sell big and then attempt to buy back big.. but most of my ideas tend to be buying and selling incrementally with a fairly small portion of my total BTC holdings, and many times less than 50% of my holdings.

Accordingly, I consider myself as a kind of incrementalist when it comes to BTC trading, and I could not really imagine a scenario that I would sell more than 60% (for example) of my BTC stash... unless I was really convinced that the price was going down quickly and I would be able to buy back in a fairly quick time frame.

Surely, when the scenarios unravel, I may need to adjust my thinking because if there is anything about bitcoin , price performance seem to be a bit unpredictable and sometimes a bit explosive in how much it has the potential to overshoot and at the same time how much it has the potential to be manipulated downward when the FUCD is effectively spread.

On the other hand, as BTC's market cap goes up, it's going to become more and more costly to manipulate BTC prices, yet there could be some price setting vehicles and even additional FUCD spreading that will continue to allow manipulation... even if BTC's market cap were to approach $1trillion, for example..

Also, sometimes, public sentiment is a bit difficult to judge, especially in the short term while it is happening and you got quick price movements in one direction and then the other direction.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[adamstgbit]

Hey Adam (or anyone else who may be interested in addressing the below consideration):

I think that I kind of understand your transformation in thinking, and personally, I believe that even a few months ago you were much more bullish than me, especially with your earlier predictions of $32k in 2 years, yet I would be interested to hear your thinking regarding the range of the percentage of your BTC that you are going to be willing to trade (sell and then buy back later).

I have considered some of these ideas for my own BTC portfolio, and I have a few different scenarios in mind that could cause me to sell big and then attempt to buy back big.. but most of my ideas tend to be buying and selling incrementally with a fairly small portion of my total BTC holdings, and many times less than 50% of my holdings.

Accordingly, I consider myself as a kind of incrementalist when it comes to BTC trading, and I could not really imagine a scenario that I would sell more than 60% (for example) of my BTC stash... unless I was really convinced that the price was going down quickly and I would be able to buy back in a fairly quick time frame.

Surely, when the scenarios unravel, I may need to adjust my thinking because if there is anything about bitcoin , price performance seem to be a bit unpredictable and sometimes a bit explosive in how much it has the potential to overshoot and at the same time how much it has the potential to be manipulated downward when the FUCD is effectively spread.

On the other hand, as BTC's market cap goes up, it's going to become more and more costly to manipulate BTC prices, yet there could be some price setting vehicles and even additional FUCD spreading that will continue to allow manipulation... even if BTC's market cap were to approach $1trillion, for example..

Also, sometimes, public sentiment is a bit difficult to judge, especially in the short term while it is happening and you got quick price movements in one direction and then the other direction.

I too sell / buy in an incremental way... well to be precise, i ease into a position (long or short, no leverage) and then when i see profit i tend to cover all at once.

the other week the FUD got to me... i immediately filled top bid, and placed an ask on the front line, and then placed some more asks higher up.
I was 99% in, and now i must be more like 80% in.

I'll see where that trade takes me, i might be able to cover at a profit next week! who knows....

as for "how much will i risk selling when it comes to segwit release pump and LN release pump"

not sure depends on the market...

as segwit release gets closer and price moves higher,
i will place a token sell ( let's say 0.5 @ 450$ )
I will start to sell larger and larger amounts as price moves higher and higher. ( 1 @ 460, 1.5 @ 465 etc etc...)

the higher the price goes the more i will sell. i am willing to sell HUGE! if market goes completely ape shit and end up pumping to like 800$ for segwit pump. i will probably end up with very little bitcoin.... ( for a short time ) but most likely i will end up selling some 10-20% of my stash and cover at a 5-10% profit few weeks later. I will determine my cover target price, as the top gets clearly spelt out. if i end up with an avg a price of 460 and the top turns out to be 550 well that means i fucked up and so i'll cover for <1% profit...

the real action will be next year when LN is getting closer to being released IMO.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[adamstgbit]

any minute now...

 

[adamstgbit]

 

[solex]

Hate to say it but the price looks like it wants to do some more housekeeping in the basement at $350.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[adamstgbit]

Hate to say it but the price looks like it wants to do some more housekeeping in the basement at $350.

the support at 399 will be epic.

it'll be like