Wall Observer

[adamstgbit]

420 is the new 5

 

[solex]

At 5 everyone thought it would go to $32k, now at 420 the non-stop fud-tsunami has reduced it to 3200 :-(

 

[adamstgbit]

[doublepost=1460164590,1460163898][/doublepost]

At 5 everyone thought it would go to $32k, now at 420 the non-stop fud-tsunami has reduced it to 3200 :-(

back then i was saying >100$ within a year and it was seen as nutty, proudhon Bet 10BTC against me.
there was much FUD back then too, bitcoin was really a joke to most poeple, even poeple buying it were just there to make a quick buck off all the "suckers" buying bitcoin.
things are different now, more serious goals, more serious FUD, we'll be fine.

 

[adamstgbit]

well i guess a lot of people think segwit will be a flop ....

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[Richy_T]

Anyone have a pointer to some pseudo-code for calculating the fee in a transaction? I know it's vins - vouts and I can see the txids for the vins but I'm a little hazy on calculating the values.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[Richy_T]

So everyone should be mostly familiar with the block info bar. Since ChartBuddy is every three hours now, there are therefore three block indicators. The dot indicators now display a blue cross for a non-version-4 block (I will be rethinking this as I don't think it's very clear).

I'll be coming up with a new explanation page soon but for those not familiar, white squares represent a block, red squares a full block and black empty squares an empty (1tx) block.

 

[JayJuanGee]

I too sell / buy in an incremental way... well to be precise, i ease into a position (long or short, no leverage) and then when i see profit i tend to cover all at once.


the other week the FUD got to me... i immediately filled top bid, and placed an ask on the front line, and then placed some more asks higher up.

I was 99% in, and now i must be more like 80% in.

Yes… Even though adjusting your allocation by 20% on short notice can be a relatively extreme measure, it certainly is not as extreme as selling 80% all at once, especially when currently we have price indicators going in both directions. Surely, some kind of an event could occur that causes downward or upward direction to become more clear – but when there is a certain amount of manipulation going on… we just have to go with our gut, attempt to front run the market a bit, and then somewhat stick with our convictions until we come up with a reasonable basis to reverse our convictions.


I’m certainly not as bearish as you regarding the potential negative impacts of seg wit; however, I do recognize that a bit of a battle can continue for several months longer than necessary.


Actually, with these kinds of peer to peer systems (such as bitcoin), it seems a bit unrealistic if we believe that changes are going to be made quickly - yet when the upward price pressures begin, and maybe when prices begin to approach the previous ATH, there’s going to be a lot of difficulties holding it back – even though in the short term it remains possible that we may suffer another year or even two more years of sub $700 prices. I’m staying in during this time, because, I really do believe absent some real meaningful technoiogical snafu (beyond some of the whining about blocksize limits), its going to be very difficult to bring bitcoin prices below $300 .. and probably even below $350 is going to take a hell-of-a lot of FUCD spreading and some kind of actual technological glitch (beyond mere proclamations of such).

I'll see where that trade takes me, i might be able to cover at a profit next week! who knows....


as for "how much will i risk selling when it comes to segwit release pump and LN release pump"


not sure depends on the market...

hopefully, you were able to cover at least some of your earlier short in the past 48 hours. It seems fairly difficult to bet for anything below $410 – at least for any meaningful amount of time and absent any meaningful negative FUCD

as segwit release gets closer and price moves higher,

i will place a token sell ( let's say 0.5 @ 450$ )

I will start to sell larger and larger amounts as price moves higher and higher. ( 1 @ 460, 1.5 @ 465 etc etc...)


the higher the price goes the more i will sell. i am willing to sell HUGE! if market goes completely ape shit and end up pumping to like 800$ for segwit pump. i will probably end up with very little bitcoin.... ( for a short time ) but most likely i will end up selling some 10-20% of my stash and cover at a 5-10% profit few weeks later. I will determine my cover target price, as the top gets clearly spelt out. if i end up with an avg a price of 460 and the top turns out to be 550 well that means i fucked up and so i'll cover for <1% profit...


the real action will be next year when LN is getting closer to being released IMO.

These are all reasonable tentative plans - yet I have my doubts about whether we will need to wait for the release of LN in order to get meaningful upward BTC price movement. I am getting this sense, because the longer and longer that I witness the supposed “technical problems” with bitcoin, the more that I am convinced that the “technical problems” are exaggerations rather than real. Therefore, prices are more likely to move based on a sense of consensus and the fact that the core group are likely to prevail (and when that becomes more clear to everyone, then BTC prices are going to move because there are no real technological problems with bitcoin nor with Core’s decentralized ongoing unclear governance forward vision).


Personally, I am getting the sense that seg wit is going to be released in the coming months, but it will take several months before it is actually significantly adopted… yet at some point in that process we are likely to get very decent upward price movement…. Because the market is going to come to the realization that there is no real dispute and there is nothing really holding back bitcoin such as the various insistences that a hard change to the block size limit (such as from 1mb to 2mb) has to take place….


But, yeah, we can each have our views of probabilities of outcomes which remains a bit of conjecture, yet we may need to adjust our conjectures along the way, and it is possible (though in my view fairly less likely) that significant BTC market movement will be delayed until some kind of meaningful release of LN.

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]