Wall Observer

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Someone (/u/azop?) noticed a while back that the Bitcoin price tends to spike after periods when the price has been especially stable for an especially long time. The correlation is striking, so /u/azop posts these graphs almost daily at http://azopstability.com.

The stability - basically how flat the price has been recently - is shown by the height of the curves, with each curve showing a different length of "recently." The higher the curve the more stable the price has been over the recent period.

The purple 150-day stability curve spiking means the price has been especially stable over the past 150 days. For the past four years, this phenomenon has immediately preceded a major rally four out of the five times it has occurred (and all three of the times that it has spiked this high). "Major rally" meaning that two of the rallies were doublings/triplings of the price (recently and mid-2012), and two of them were tenfoldings of the price (early and late 2013). Just one rally - the recent one - took quite a few months to fully develop. The other three rallies were at breakneck speed starting within days or weeks of the spike.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[Tomothy]

Wow. Thanks for that explanation; I was totally misreading the graph then. So, arguably, the recent stability could also possibly be seen as abnormal as compared to bitcoin's norm and in turn mean there should be a statistically significant change either up or down? Do you know if there is a similar chart for any other coins, i.e., ltc? The website provides some really interesting insight as to what's going on.

 

[adamstgbit]

i'm not sure i can buy BTC anymore...
i mean i'm not sure i believe BTC will hit any kind of mass adoption if fees are high and second layer is not user friendly.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

 

[Tomothy]

Adam; Is that what they want to have happen/believe? Besides ETH is there anything else you find interesting?

 

[adamstgbit]

I believe they dont understand what they are doing to bitcoin... they are too smart to understand a "dumb" person's point of view. they genuinely believe the added costs and complexity to end users isn't worth considering.

ETH is a piece of shit.
its all crap...

i'm considering running to silver, god's crypto ehehehe.

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Wow. Thanks for that explanation; I was totally misreading the graph then. So, arguably, the recent stability could also possibly be seen as abnormal as compared to bitcoin's norm and in turn mean there should be a statistically significant change either up or down?

Yeah it seems like it means a significant move up is likely. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it's something to watch out for as the correlation seems quite strong. Not only has every long stability period (except one) led to a big rally, every big rally has been preceded by a long stability period. It doesn't get much more solid than that in investing, except if there were more than 5 data points.

I don't know if there are stability charts for any altcoins. Azop seems the only person making them.

@adamstgbit

Well they are planning to do bad things to Core. Whether Bitcoin keeps being based on Core as Core gets ruined is another question. Honey Badger is like Marty McFly hitching rides on cars on his skateboard, and maybe Honey Badger doesn't mind hitching a ride on a car he knows is going over a cliff later on, because he's only hitching a ride while the hitching's good.

 

[Tomothy]

It feels like price suppression until segwit & halving, and then... /shrug who knows.

So, I guess the thousand dollar question is, what will happen once the new code gets pushed live? What I mean by that is,

Segwit Code is tested, pushed public in late april/ early may 2016. It THEN has to reach X% threshold before the soft fork activates, right? So, will it activate? Is this something miners are going to do? I think they might depending on what happens around that time.

 

[adamstgbit]

@Zangelbert Bingledack

i see it happening now, everyone that doesn't like the core values, are being pushed aside, rage-quitting, and or getting converted.
Bitcoin will be made to walk the path core has laid out... i see no way out of this, i view the idea of poeple over throwing core as a pipe dream.
I hit the market today, i'm done here.
[doublepost=1459368101][/doublepost]enough talk, time is running out, time to act.

 

[JayJuanGee]

@Zangelbert Bingledack

i see it happening now, everyone that doesn't like the core values, are being pushed aside, rage-quitting, and or getting converted.
Bitcoin will be made to walk the path core has laid out... i see no way out of this, i view the idea of poeple over throwing core as a pipe dream.
I hit the market today, i'm done here.
[doublepost=1459368101][/doublepost]enough talk, time is running out, time to act.

hehehehe... .sounds like a rage quit...

If you have become more bearish about bitcoin, it probably, doesn't hurt to diversify a little bit more of your holdings, but getting completely out could prove to be a missed opportunity.. while the snake could well be coiling up...

 

[adamstgbit]

i'm not rage quitting i am giving up.

 

[freetrader]

@Tomothy : Price suppression by whom / what ?

If you mean an orchestrated effort by Core-allied miners and pools, I don't quite believe it yet.
Miners like @SysMan have stated that if anything, there are a lot of short-term profit orientated miners in the game who would like the price to be higher.

I think it's much more likely due to people "hitting the market" en masse, diversifying or selling out for other options.

I would just say to those who are feeling despondent - don't give up easily, at least hold on to a few Bitcoins SegWit has not activated, and there is time enough before it does to fork Bitcoin out from the stranglehold.

For those who still don't know: there are two genesis forks in preparation, which means forks which retain the Bitcoin genesis block and blockchain up to the fork height.

One is a POW-changing fork, which will kick out the existing miners (or rather: force them to participate in a mining environment which is not conducive to current-gen SHA256 ASICs, if they want to mine that chain).

The other is a POW-retaining fork, which will allow the miners to "jump ship" in a more direct fashion instead of the slow voting process we have now, where they can be vetoed by a co-opted majority.

Both of these forks will allow bigger blocks as soon as they trigger, which will be clearly defined objectives (e.g. by a certain block height at the latest). These will be game changers.

The market will then decide between the available alternatives, to see which of these Bitcoin futures appeal to it the most. The game is far from over.

 

[adamstgbit]

goodbye my beloved bitcoin, time has not been kind on you, may death bring you peace.
[doublepost=1459368945][/doublepost]

 

[freetrader]

@adamstgbit : Please submit your entry to secure #101!

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

 

[adamstgbit]

ok done

i said

core is fundamentally changing bitcoin, the bitcoin we use to know and love is going to die.

https://bitco.in/forum/threads/the-future-of-bitcoin-isnt-bitcoin.1018/

its over guys.

its been fun.
[doublepost=1459370170][/doublepost]

 

[JayJuanGee]

ok done

i said



its over guys.

its been fun.
[zHESy8XsJPs[/MEDIA]

Could you take BJA and some of the other big blocker fanatics with you?

 

[adamstgbit]

yes we will all leave soon, i am trying to get out before everyone else dose

i want to live!!!!!!

LMFAO

 

[Tomothy]

Freetrader: I mean, if I was an institutional investor, my goal would be to accumulate BTC at as low a price point as possible and to hold it at that price point for as long as possible while I accumulate. We are +/- 100 days from the halving and there is nothing but doom and gloom. (IMHO, It's a bit surreal, like this is by design.) For me, this would be great. I can continue to force liquidate longs/shorts to enhance my holdings by playing both sides against the middle and using nerves of market. This is especially easy to do if I have the ability to control the actions by core devs and messages they produce.

"If you mean an orchestrated effort by Core-allied miners and pools, I don't quite believe it yet.
Miners like @SysMan have stated that if anything, there are a lot of short-term profit orientated miners in the game who would like the price to be higher." I believe there is collusion based on HK discussion where a decision was made to help a participant's open trade. Prior to this admission, there was lots of speculation as to intent and bad faith. This confirms participants self interest outweighs good of bitcoin. We've seen it before when exchanges have used order book information against their own clients. Lately, it seems as if the market has matured a bit. However, if you have funding running out and you are not yet producing results...

This scaling dispute is especially interesting. Blocktream said LN needs 4mb blocks... at minimum to work, and at most Segwit results in 1.7mb blocks, right? so increases will have to occur at some point in order for them to achieve their goal. So, why would they want to delay size increase? What is gained by suppressing user adoption and fostering uncertainty? Maybe they need to accumulate more bitcoin since it is the platform that LN will work on and there is a fixed supply and they want their pockets deep for the pump and to crowd out new investors. It's what I would do if I had the resources.
[doublepost=1459370991][/doublepost]

i'm not rage quitting i am giving up.

It's ok to give up but there's no reason to sell... yet... I think this will get 'stupid crazy.'

 

[67 speedqueen]

ETH is a piece of shit.
its all crap...

You're starting to see...

i'm considering running to silver, god's crypto ehehehe.