I once wrote a thread, which was widely ridiculed for the title (I still have 8 days, stranger things have happened!)In other news today a veteran Bitcoin trading analyst threw in the towel, saying "I decline to analze this. The multi year Great 3 has been started."
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12886661#msg12886661
@sgbett Your comments please!
In that thread I said "the figures aren't right, its the magnitude of the moves you might have to go through that is the message"
The recent run up from mid 200's to 500 was just a flicker, the 'crash' down to 300, people have such short memories. The price has been sideway for so long that they forget what a tiny illiquid market this is and that aside from the specific prices and timescales, what I said still holds true. Those moves are a few million dollars changing hands, and a few thousand bitcoins.
Remember when it was $1, how $10 seemed crazy. $100 was unthinkable and yet we went > $1000
What seems crazy now? What now is unthinkable? Is the world on board yet.
Maybe bitcoin will never do anything more and will go sideways forever, maybe it will fail. Maybe it will save the economy from collapse by providing a safe haven during a financial meltdown that allows for business as usual (or at least close to it). At that point "90% of the people in the world will miss 90% of the bitcoin" as per the prophecy. They'll have no choice but to convert their remaining fiat to BTC at whatever rate its ended up at, because BTC is the only thing thats worth anything. The natural equilibrium at that stage will be that the tiny amounts of microBTC that people end up with will have the same value in terms of material goods as what their dollars had before the apocalypse. Its inevitable, its the only way for the new BTConomy to work, and TPTB that have accumulated prior will be right behind it because ensuring the BTConomy is successful guarantees their continued outlandishly disproportionate wealth.
I might just be biased though.