Wall Observer

Would you prefer to:

  • 1. Implement SegWit now, lift the block size limit later.

    Votes: 3 6.0%
  • 2. Implement SegWit and lift the block size limit at the same time.

    Votes: 7 14.0%
  • 3. Lift the block size limit now, and put SegWit on hold (perhaps indefinitely).

    Votes: 40 80.0%

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .

sgbett

Active Member
Aug 25, 2015
216
786
UK
In other news today a veteran Bitcoin trading analyst threw in the towel, saying "I decline to analze this. The multi year Great 3 has been started."

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12886661#msg12886661

@sgbett Your comments please!
I once wrote a thread, which was widely ridiculed for the title (I still have 8 days, stranger things have happened!)

In that thread I said "the figures aren't right, its the magnitude of the moves you might have to go through that is the message"

The recent run up from mid 200's to 500 was just a flicker, the 'crash' down to 300, people have such short memories. The price has been sideway for so long that they forget what a tiny illiquid market this is and that aside from the specific prices and timescales, what I said still holds true. Those moves are a few million dollars changing hands, and a few thousand bitcoins.

Remember when it was $1, how $10 seemed crazy. $100 was unthinkable and yet we went > $1000

What seems crazy now? What now is unthinkable? Is the world on board yet.

Maybe bitcoin will never do anything more and will go sideways forever, maybe it will fail. Maybe it will save the economy from collapse by providing a safe haven during a financial meltdown that allows for business as usual (or at least close to it). At that point "90% of the people in the world will miss 90% of the bitcoin" as per the prophecy. They'll have no choice but to convert their remaining fiat to BTC at whatever rate its ended up at, because BTC is the only thing thats worth anything. The natural equilibrium at that stage will be that the tiny amounts of microBTC that people end up with will have the same value in terms of material goods as what their dollars had before the apocalypse. Its inevitable, its the only way for the new BTConomy to work, and TPTB that have accumulated prior will be right behind it because ensuring the BTConomy is successful guarantees their continued outlandishly disproportionate wealth.

I might just be biased though.
 

wutizurkwest

New Member
Nov 21, 2015
3
5
Hi folks, it's nice to see a few familiar names here.

It looks like our friends in China punched through 2100 without much resistance, the question is will it hold? I'm surprised the price didn't dip into $2xx US today with all the rumbling about the EU clamping down on "alternative" payment methods and Hearn joining R3. There wasn't as much panic selling as I expected. Or maybe there was and it was offset by people buying in preparation for Bitcoin Black Friday deals. Last year sucked in general of course but during this same week last year we went from $342 to $395 (Stamp), I'll take a repeat of that.
 

Georg Engelmann

Active Member
Sep 10, 2015
184
105
Austria
bitcoincashstandards.org
I'm surprised the price didn't dip into $2xx US today with all the rumbling about the EU clamping down on "alternative" payment methods
A draft document seen by Reuters is only as good as a rumour on reddit.

Recent developments indicate stable conditions for Bitcoin in the European Union. The EU Court of Justice decided that Bitcoin should be VAT free just one month ago and the UK Treasury came to the conclusion that the money laundering risk associated with digital currency is low.

Hearn joining R3
Why did you think that this could have a negative impact on the price?
 

wutizurkwest

New Member
Nov 21, 2015
3
5
Some of us are inclined to think that most rational people have a rational opinion on the blocksize subject, but I'm inclined to believe that the fast majority of people who have heard of Bitcoin don't know what the block size is or why it matters. What they see is Bitcoin has a technical problem that is making news, and that does not inspire confidence. The manner in which Mike left only reinforces the impression that the Bitcoin community can't agree on a crucial technical point, and that the problem is so bad a core developer is leaving to work on bank-funded projects instead.

The same goes for the VAT and UK reports. Of course these are good news to rational people. But the media won't focus on these. Sensationalism sells, and you can see they've already used this as an excuse to vilify Bitcoin because it's an easy target and has a reputation for being used by the criminal element. And politicians will leap to increase controls because it's low-hanging fruit and makes them look like they're doing something productive about terrorism.

I'm a permabull, and I believe this too shall pass. I think we'll see 4 digit coins again within the next 12 months, and there's a good chance we'll see a run for $10k in the next 2 years. I'm just surprised there wasn't more selling these last couple days, that's all.
 
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Georg Engelmann

Active Member
Sep 10, 2015
184
105
Austria
bitcoincashstandards.org
But the media won't focus on these.
The VAT decision actually got some coverage in Germany (German media rarely mentions Bitcoin):

http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/finanzen/article147944246/Umsatzsteuer-bei-Bitcoins-faellt-flach.html
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/bitcoin-echtes-geld-1.2703604
http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/EuGH-Bitcoin-Tausch-ist-umsatzsteuerfrei-2852500.html

I'm just surprised there wasn't more selling these last couple days, that's all
Maybe we're going to see 2xx again in a few days.
 

wutizurkwest

New Member
Nov 21, 2015
3
5
Perhaps. The Chinese exchanges don't hesitate crossing 2100, there's no psychological resistance or support there. It appears we're treading water at 300 Euros. If sentiment goes down this week, I expect the price will follow.

The ironic thing is, once law enforcement and intelligence agencies figure out how to track money flows on the blockchain, they will embrace it (I think this is why the US isn't banning it right from the start). If they're smart they will simply increase KYC regulations at this point. If they're very smart law enforcement will focus their attention on mixers, maybe even setup a few of their own so they can watch where the dirty money flows more closely.
 

Georg Engelmann

Active Member
Sep 10, 2015
184
105
Austria
bitcoincashstandards.org
So, any consensus on where and when we're going
I think we're heading down for now with a new up-trend starting in the first half of 2016.

Norway said:
Lift off will happen sometime between now and march 1st next year when the scaling issue is resolved
Agreed, but both the block size and the governance issue of Bitcoin need to be addressed.
 

sickpig

Active Member
Aug 28, 2015
926
2,541
@Norway ccmf?

edit: sorry guys I always forget that I never ever have to post on a speculation thread :p
 
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Fatman3002

Active Member
Sep 5, 2015
189
312
I think we're heading down for now with a new up-trend starting in the first half of 2016.



Agreed, but both the block size and the governance issue of Bitcoin need to be addressed.

The fact that Hearn bailed might be enough to convince the market that these issues have been resolved. Core is now unchallenged and they don't see scaling as such a pressing issue.
 
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Georg Engelmann

Active Member
Sep 10, 2015
184
105
Austria
bitcoincashstandards.org
The fact that Hearn bailed might be enough to convince the market that these issues have been resolved. Core is now unchallenged and they don't see scaling as such a pressing issue.
Assuming everything is fine works as long as Bitcoin works. I don't know if the Chinese traders have realized that transactions getting stuck and taking hours to confirm, but that's probably not something they want to hear.

Edit: Well, looks like we're staying at this price level.
 
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Fatman3002

Active Member
Sep 5, 2015
189
312
@Norway

... It's dead in the water after Hearn left. Gavin doesn't sound super-pumped. Trying to keep it alive might be the wrong way for non-smallblockers to push the issue.

Who's going to adopt Bitcoin XT when even the devs aren't that keen on spending any time on it?
 
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Norway

Well-Known Member
Sep 29, 2015
2,424
6,410
@Fatman3002
Hard to say how this will play out. The XT code is out there. Bitcoin Unlimited is also interesting. I doubt Wladimir will be in charge in february if Core doesn't step up very soon. ;)