Wall Observer

Would you prefer to:

  • 1. Implement SegWit now, lift the block size limit later.

    Votes: 3 6.0%
  • 2. Implement SegWit and lift the block size limit at the same time.

    Votes: 7 14.0%
  • 3. Lift the block size limit now, and put SegWit on hold (perhaps indefinitely).

    Votes: 40 80.0%

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .

8up

Active Member
Mar 14, 2016
120
344
It's slow because we got used to prices above $1,000. It'll be different, when we come closer to $10,000.

As much as I like @ChartBuddy. In order to improve discussion I'd like to see chart buddy not being the last post most of the time. Is there a possible solution? Me thinks. At our current posting rate it's hindering discussion more than it helps it.
 
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Mengerian

Moderator
Staff member
Aug 29, 2015
536
2,597
Resistance at 1000 Euro?

Seems like price has a hard time getting past 1000 Euro. Are there lots of Europeans for whom 1000 Euro is a significant price level? Will we also have drawn out price discovery around Gold parity price, and 1000 GBP?
 

bitsein

Member
Feb 19, 2017
34
48
This is a nice and steady price. Personally I'm pretty content considering some of our recent dips.

Mengerian, I think us Europeans do see 1000e as a psychological barrier. We're always a step away from a crisis...
 

Tomothy

Active Member
Mar 14, 2016
130
317
What does everyone think may happen with regards to the upcoming COIN ETF? I still can't wrap my head around how market is moving up, seemingly indicating the thought that it will be approved, but betting discussions are that it will fail. Is this just, buy the rumor and sell the news fomo at its finest? Tough looking at this objectively as I lack involvement with SEC approvals lol.
 

Mengerian

Moderator
Staff member
Aug 29, 2015
536
2,597
Looks more like another chance at an all-time high will be pissed away because of the 1MB limit.
Yeah, Mempool backlog currently sitting at 80,000 Transactions and holding steady: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/24h.html

Even if we do make new all-time highs, or whatever the price is, it would be better without the transaction bottleneck.

We can think of every transaction as a transfer from someone who subjectively values the coin less to someone who values the coin more. As coins shift to those who value them more, the total value increases. (It is also possible for total value to increase without coins changing hands if current holders change their own subjective valuation of coins. But this has more limited potential for large gains). To achieve large gains in valuation, Bitcoin holdings must move from the small number of current holders, to a much larger number of future holders who value each unit more (and each hold proportionally fewer units). Transaction constraints hobble this process.

One can also think of coin distribution as a special case of Coase Theorem. We are starting from a non-optimal initial distribution and moving towards a pareto-optimal distribution. (of course never getting there, but heading in the right direction). But for this to work properly requires low transaction costs.

We can think of the transaction fee as a floor on the possible value gain from each transaction. For example, with a transaction fee of 50 cents, a transaction that would increase the total subjective value of both holders by less than 50 cents (and thus increase total market cap of Bitcoin by up to 50 cents) will be priced out.
 

yrral86

Active Member
Sep 4, 2015
148
271
Yeah, Mempool backlog currently sitting at 80,000 Transactions and holding steady: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/24h.html

Even if we do make new all-time highs, or whatever the price is, it would be better without the transaction bottleneck.

We can think of every transaction as a transfer from someone who subjectively values the coin less to someone who values the coin more. As coins shift to those who value them more, the total value increases. (It is also possible for total value to increase without coins changing hands if current holders change their own subjective valuation of coins. But this has more limited potential for large gains). To achieve large gains in valuation, Bitcoin holdings must move from the small number of current holders, to a much larger number of future holders who value each unit more (and each hold proportionally fewer units). Transaction constraints hobble this process.

One can also think of coin distribution as a special case of Coase Theorem. We are starting from a non-optimal initial distribution and moving towards a pareto-optimal distribution. (of course never getting there, but heading in the right direction). But for this to work properly requires low transaction costs.

We can think of the transaction fee as a floor on the possible value gain from each transaction. For example, with a transaction fee of 50 cents, a transaction that would increase the total subjective value of both holders by less than 50 cents (and thus increase total market cap of Bitcoin by up to 50 cents) will be priced out.
Long term, you are absolutely correct.

Short term, a transaction backlog of this magnitude (1.2million btc now, 110k transactions) can cause a supply shortage that allows the market to quickly overheat.
 

79b79aa8

Well-Known Member
Sep 22, 2015
1,031
3,440
looks like Stamp ATH will be breached shortly. 0.5% upwards move and it's done.

@Tomothy, without having special information of any sort, it would seem to me most normal if the Trump SEC did not block the automatic BATS rule change, thus allowing COIN to list.

yet prediction markets say otherwise (currently the prediction future contract for that happening at BitMEX is at 36.5 -- contract settles at 0 if the SEC disapproves the proposed rule change; it settles at 100 if the SEC does not disapprove the proposed rule change).
 
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79b79aa8

Well-Known Member
Sep 22, 2015
1,031
3,440
i am seeing a similar pattern to when we were one order of magnitude lower. so for now i am interested in the april 8, 2013 ~$213 ATH, not so much in the now fallen november '13 ATH or thereabouts (which includes the arbitrary XAU comparison).

it would therefore not suprise me if we are in the low $2000s soon. nor if, like last time, that is not even be the big rally.

it would surprise me if we see three digits again.
 
Last edited:
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Zangelbert Bingledack

Well-Known Member
Aug 29, 2015
1,485
5,585
In addition to the MtGox ATH, Gold stands at $1250 today as another big psychological level. Break both and momentum should carry us far (if backlogs don't suffocate it).
 
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AdrianX

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
2,097
5,797
bitco.in
What does everyone think may happen with regards to the upcoming COIN ETF? I still can't wrap my head around how market is moving up, seemingly indicating the thought that it will be approved, but betting discussions are that it will fail. Is this just, buy the rumor and sell the news fomo at its finest? Tough looking at this objectively as I lack involvement with SEC approvals lol.
I hardly trade any more but I sold just a smigin for just the reason you bring up. I'm in for the long hall and I can't quite bring my self to believe everything is awesome.
[doublepost=1488057472][/doublepost]
Yeah, Mempool backlog currently sitting at 80,000 Transactions and holding steady: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/24h.html

Even if we do make new all-time highs, or whatever the price is, it would be better without the transaction bottleneck.

We can think of every transaction as a transfer from someone who subjectively values the coin less to someone who values the coin more. As coins shift to those who value them more, the total value increases. (It is also possible for total value to increase without coins changing hands if current holders change their own subjective valuation of coins. But this has more limited potential for large gains). To achieve large gains in valuation, Bitcoin holdings must move from the small number of current holders, to a much larger number of future holders who value each unit more (and each hold proportionally fewer units). Transaction constraints hobble this process.

One can also think of coin distribution as a special case of Coase Theorem. We are starting from a non-optimal initial distribution and moving towards a pareto-optimal distribution. (of course never getting there, but heading in the right direction). But for this to work properly requires low transaction costs.

We can think of the transaction fee as a floor on the possible value gain from each transaction. For example, with a transaction fee of 50 cents, a transaction that would increase the total subjective value of both holders by less than 50 cents (and thus increase total market cap of Bitcoin by up to 50 cents) will be priced out.
great post - FYI I keep wishing I had just bought $0.50 worth of bitcoin before people started calling it spam - that $0.50 purchase could net me 5,000BTC if I had timed it.

we should not be discouraging $0.50 purchases of bitcoin now - if bitcoin does reach its full potential a $0.50 purchase of BTC would represent significant redistribution of global wealth and have a net global positive impact. in 20 years time I suspect it wont be economical to make a $0.50 perchance in bitcoin - but the market should dictate that not some arbitrary 1MB soft fork limit.
 

jbreher

Active Member
Dec 31, 2015
166
526
Hey there ChartBuddy....

I note the Coinbase feed has been down for some time. Granted, Karpeles trying to look trendy on his ball chair always induces a chuckle-worthy memory of that gawd-awful interview that still pic came from. However, I can't help but wonder if the feed will ever be back?

Thanks for your continued service to the community. :)
 

Richy_T

Well-Known Member
Dec 27, 2015
1,085
2,741
Hey there ChartBuddy....

I note the Coinbase feed has been down for some time. Granted, Karpeles trying to look trendy on his ball chair always induces a chuckle-worthy memory of that gawd-awful interview that still pic came from. However, I can't help but wonder if the feed will ever be back?

Thanks for your continued service to the community. :)
Yeah, sorry. It's on my list but other things keep jumping it in priority. Let me take a look right now though (I'll probably miss the next one though).
 

Mengerian

Moderator
Staff member
Aug 29, 2015
536
2,597
Bitcoin rises past Gox "fake" ATH, Gold ounce parity, 1000 GBP, and 20B market cap.

Gavin Andresen endorses BU.

At the same time Bitcoin losing market share to alts: http://coinmarketcap.com/

Dash seems like a massive pump, the have a "lock up the coins" master node model, similar to what Steem had. Restricts supply on the way up, but has reverse effect if people lose confidence on the way down, makes dumps long lasting and persistent. Not sure if there's any organic growth, I hear lots of marketing, I imagine it's taking the torch from Monero as a hedge from BTC throughput concerns.

Ethereum keeping pace / making incremental gains against BTC.
 

AdrianX

Well-Known Member
Aug 28, 2015
2,097
5,797
bitco.in
@Mengerian my Dash was stolen by cryptsy - so I don't have a dog in that pony fight.

Monero on the other hand I do hold a bit, - I bought a some and mined some.

When it comes to public image Monero pumpers were huge supporters of BS/Core and small blocks - that put me off investing more - while the Dash pushers seemed to just get on with pushing their own merits dispirit being attacked by Monero pumper. It was widely advertised on bitcointalk that Monero pushers were supportive of crippling bitcoin in an attempt to get BTC holders to diversify into Monero - glad to see they haven't been as successful as Dash who've taken the high road. (may also be that rpietila has a huge Monero position and has been deleveraging and that has suppressed the Monero price)

But Bitcoin is going up on and I'm loving it. (sad to lose out on a 6000% Dash increase but bitcoin is doing just fine.)
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Looking good.