Wall Observer

[solex]

I think the rally is done until the halving is over and there is a new tsunami of hype with either SegWit released (OMG 25,000 txns/sec on LN next), or the block limit is raised (OMG the community can HF when it wants to solve any future problem).

PS. this is my opinion, not trading advice

 

[JayJuanGee]

I think the rally is done until the halving is over and there is a new tsunami of hype with either SegWit released (OMG 25,000 txns/sec on LN next), or the block limit is raised (OMG the community can HF when it wants to solve any future problem).

PS. this is my opinion, not trading advice

So, based on your above post, in your opinion, we are not breaking $800 in this current round of upward BTC price moves?

Well, I hope that you have stacked your BTC trading bets set according to your views of the future.

Personally, I seem to be a bit more bullish than you, at the time of this typing, but you seemed to have been calling tops since the lower to mid $400s, too, if I recall correctly.

Personally, I believe that we have a pretty decent chance of floating around in a $750 to $850 price range for quite a while, and maybe this is going to be the BTC price area in which bears and bulls engage in a fairly significant price battle? But, also this price area could end up not being a battle, and BTC prices could just float upwards from here, too and go beyond $850 and into new ATH territories?

On the contrary, surely in the short-term, BTC prices could deviate a bit lower, into the lower $700 or so, but I believe that at the moment there continues to be fairly significant upward BTC price pressures and upwards momentum.

I'm not really comfortable speculating beyond this $750 to $850 price arena at this point, because I think that in the coming days, weeks and possibly months, we could get stuck somewhere around this price ballpark, and accordingly, we need to see how this potential price battle plays out, that is if the price battle ensues.

Maybe I am also wrong in my assessment of the current situation (because I really think that this fullblocalypse is a non-issue or at least a largely resolved issue in terms of the market, in spite of a segment of the bitcoin community that continues to give considerable vocalization to the blocksize issue as if it were some kind of thing technically holding back bitcoin), but to me it seems quite a bit too soon to call the end of this particular price rally because we are still moving around in these prices from the lower $400s to our current price on relatively low trade volume, and so it really appears that the BTC price battle (in this price territory) has not even begun yet, if it is going to occur...

As you may know, I stack my BTC bets for the possibility of either price direction, so I do not make any real and meaningful claims to be able to predict or to attempt to predict short term BTC price directions, because it seems almost an impossible task that is just a kind of roll of the dice, so in that short term respect, I remain somewhat ambivalent.

Nonetheless, I will disclose that currently, my BTC trade bets are stacked a bit more in favor of upwards price movements from here as opposed to downwards price movements.

 

[blackspidy]

I think that this rally might come to a pause or end soon. Be ready, because no matter how much all of us want the price to go up forever, it can't. Bitcoin has done some magical and wonderful things (price-wise), but I don't think we can push the price up much higher from here.

Short-term, anyways. Long-term, the sky's the limit. Governments keep issuing money at whatever pace they deep good for this term, bitcoin has it's production rates set in stone (any change to that makes it not bitcoin anymore). Bitcoin is more reliable than any currency used by any government, and that aspect will shine through.

Bitcoin is deflationary in nature, and despite the ups and downs (assuming a very solid support at $500 that the price just WILL NOT drop under), bitcoin has on average gone up $5.55 dollars every month. Bitcoin has gone up on average $8.44 every single month since the genesis block was mined, if using the current price ($760). That is amazing. We end another chapter of bitcoin soon, a reward era comes to an end... To the future

 

[JayJuanGee]

I think that this rally might come to a pause or end soon. Be ready, because no matter how much all of us want the price to go up forever, it can't. Bitcoin has done some magical and wonderful things (price-wise), but I don't think we can push the price up much higher from here.

Short-term, anyways. Long-term, the sky's the limit. Governments keep issuing money at whatever pace they deep good for this term, bitcoin has it's production rates set in stone (any change to that makes it not bitcoin anymore). Bitcoin is more reliable than any currency used by any government, and that aspect will shine through.

Bitcoin is deflationary in nature, and despite the ups and downs (assuming a very solid support at $500 that the price just WILL NOT drop under), bitcoin has on average gone up $5.55 dollars every month. Bitcoin has gone up on average $8.44 every single month since the genesis block was mined, if using the current price ($760). That is amazing. We end another chapter of bitcoin soon, a reward era comes to an end... To the future

are you sure that you are attempting an accurate assessment, or are you merely attempting to talk your book?


Sure, you may be correct that a price reversal is imminent, and I have already suggested that we may get a bit more upwards from here, but hey, each of us are free to arrive at our own assessment of factors that we deem to be important in our assessment and our best prediction(s) in that regard.

 

[AdrianX]

I think a lot of sell energy has been expended during the stagnant last year and a bit. So it wouldn't surprised if the price respond to demand by going up quite dramatically given the limited supply.

But I haven't ruled out the possibility of a huge dump if we don't resolve the block size limit in a decentralized way.

 

[solex]

@JayJuanGee
Our views are not massively different. I still have more BTC than the fiat equivalent. However, I do regard the hard block limit as Bitcoin's single biggest threat and speak from prior experience dealing with similar limits in commercial IT systems (over a 30-year period). We are fortunate that Bitcoin decays gracefully rather than comes to a complete halt which is what happens with many normal IT systems hitting limits which devs leave alone.

SegWit is going to be too little and too late, allowing the equivalent of 1.3MB capacity after 1 year or so, and 1.8MB after several years, if ever. This is much slower than ecosystem demand is growing.
So the market is happy to press on, because Bitcoin is still working well for most users. That sentiment can change rapidly and the halving is a trigger event by slowing block frequency in July when miners begin throwing in the towel.

 

[blackspidy]

are you sure that you are attempting an accurate assessment, or are you merely attempting to talk your book?


Sure, you may be correct that a price reversal is imminent, and I have already suggested that we may get a bit more upwards from here, but hey, each of us are free to arrive at our own assessment of factors that we deem to be important in our assessment and our best prediction(s) in that regard.

I never really got "talking one's book". I can't influence anyone enough to make money on my small positions.

Whenever I take a margin position, I try to give it my best shot at guessing where the price is going short/medium-term. I thought that the big blow-off top of this rally was going to be $740 or something close, followed by a crash. I think we're in for some support testing quite a bit lower. I'm looking for the top, and I think it's close, time-wise. When it comes to price? Not sure, we can see a peak shoot up into crazy and perhaps new heights but I really wouldn't count on it. It could tank right now, and I wouldnt really be surprised...

I enjoy giving my point of view, in case anyone finds it useful. I remember eagerly awaiting what everyone would say about the price, when I first got some bitcoin. I remember 2015 as if it were long ago, I knew so much less. I still enjoy reading people's analysis of what may happen, so I do prefer we each come to our own conclusions after looking at whatever factors we deem important.

 

[JayJuanGee]

@JayJuanGee
Our views are not massively different. I still have more BTC than the fiat equivalent. However, I do regard the hard block limit as Bitcoin's single biggest threat and speak from prior experience dealing with similar limits in commercial IT systems (over a 30-year period). We are fortunate that Bitcoin decays gracefully rather than comes to a complete halt which is what happens with many normal IT systems hitting limits which devs leave alone.

SegWit is going to be too little and too late, allowing the equivalent of 1.3MB capacity after 1 year or so, and 1.8MB after several years, if ever. This is much slower than ecosystem demand is growing.
So the market is happy to press on, because Bitcoin is still working well for most users. That sentiment can change rapidly and the halving is a trigger event by slowing block frequency in July when miners begin throwing in the towel.

O.k. fair enough that you are looking at the issue from an IT technical position, and attempting to make your own assessment of price direction and how the technicalities may play out on price based on your assessment of the situation.

I don't claim to have very deep understandings of the technical issues, even though I would claim that I have a belief that I sufficiently understand some of the technical aspects in order to make an assessment and also contrasting that some of the exaggerated claims that I have read.

So, yeah, in the end, each of us make an assessment, and I can see how we may apportion our investments differently based on such differing assessments.
Accordingly, it is likely not a bad thing to take some profits off the table when we have had a bit more than a 70% price increase in the past several weeks, and I will admit that in that regard, it could be the case that I remain a bit too bullish for my own good, and I could be more heavily invested in BTC than is reasonable, even given my own views.

I have roughly outlined my own BTC/USD allocation guidelines, and within this current BTC price range my allocation guidelines are 85 to 93% BTC - but in reality I am closer to 94% in my BTC allocation and therefore even above the top of my pre-set range (which tends to show my current bullish inclination).

So, yeah each of us is going to allocate our BTC differently, and hopefully such allocation best approximates our views.. and not everyone can be right, but some may be more objectively probable to be correct than others, yet in the end, each of us is acting on incomplete information which some of which is unknowable that is if you actually believe that there is such a thing as free will that also affects market directions and prices

Accordingly, it appears that I believe that my allocation is more correct for myself, my financial circumstances, my view of the future and my risk profile, and you believe that yours is more suitable to your situation - which does allow for the possibility that both of us our correct to allocate according to our own situations... though I hate to end with an assessment that everyone is correct. hahahaha.

 

[JayJuanGee]

I never really got "talking one's book". I can't influence anyone enough to make money on my small positions.

It seems that you understand the idea of talking one's book, and fair enough that you are asserting that you are not attempting such.

To some extent, there may be a small degree that we all engage in a little bit of talking our book, and I suppose to the extent that we acknowledge our own stake's then we can disclose a bit of our bias.

I personally attempt to get my positions to largely reflect my views, yet I understand that sometimes, there may be some inconsistencies in my own positions.

Whenever I take a margin position, I try to give it my best shot at guessing where the price is going short/medium-term.

I may become a bit skeptical of others sometimes because I personally have not been in the practice of taking margin positions, and I understand when a person works with margin positions, there is quite a bit more pressure that evolves in hoping for one direction versus another, even if logic may defy such viewpoint.

I thought that the big blow-off top of this rally was going to be $740 or something close, followed by a crash. I think we're in for some support testing quite a bit lower. I'm looking for the top, and I think it's close, time-wise.

I think for me too, I see the current price to have gone a bit farther and faster than I had expected, but then it slowed down a bit, so I am questioning whether the current price is now top heavy at this particular time.

When it comes to price? Not sure, we can see a peak shoot up into crazy and perhaps new heights but I really wouldn't count on it. It could tank right now, and I wouldnt really be surprised...

I do agree that sometimes price corrections may be necessary in order to be in a better and more steady position in order to have sufficient support below and in order to support additional upwards price movements.

I enjoy giving my point of view, in case anyone finds it useful. I remember eagerly awaiting what everyone would say about the price, when I first got some bitcoin. I remember 2015 as if it were long ago, I knew so much less. I still enjoy reading people's analysis of what may happen, so I do prefer we each come to our own conclusions after looking at whatever factors we deem important.

I am the same. I consider these forums as brainstorming opportunities. Sometimes, I may express strong views, but I remain actively interested in challenging my own views - and especially if there is logical and/or factual support that challenges my views.

 

[Bagatell]

A hanging man and bearish daily pSAR reversal on Kraken XBT/EUR. How low will we go?

 

[hedgewizard]

I'm thinking markets need to confirm finex isnt' goxxed before resuming course

 

[Mengerian]

Hmm, bit of a dip we're having.

I left some staggered bids from last week at $620 and below. Wonder if any of them will fill....

 

[theZerg]

Is this the hiccup that's always lurking near the bottom of a major move or a minibubble pop?

 

[AdrianX]

@theZerg one hopes

but boy chart buddy doesn't see that sort of action very often.

 

[blackspidy]

@JayJuanGee You, I like you

When it comes to margin, I try my best to keep it small. I close those positions early, at a small profit because I dont really trust myself with a tool that could put the entirety of my funds at jeopardy. Though, to be honest... I do it more when I'm bored. I play the small swings so that I'm not caught selling/buying part of my stash too early.

 

[freetrader]

Some harsh posts in /r/bitcoinmarkets today:

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Also, very short term does anyone else think we might retest $600ish before continuing?

Well here we are, and everyone is panicking and looking for justifications?

Verdict: Routine correction with Bitfinex down as the trigger to inject a little caution into the market to retest some support levels.

 

[JayJuanGee]

@JayJuanGee You, I like you

When it comes to margin, I try my best to keep it small. I close those positions early, at a small profit because I dont really trust myself with a tool that could put the entirety of my funds at jeopardy. Though, to be honest... I do it more when I'm bored. I play the small swings so that I'm not caught selling/buying part of my stash too early.

At some point, I may try experimenting with this kind of trading, and yeah, when you are learning it is best to begin with relatively small amounts in order that the lessons learned are not too financially expensive, and probably as you get better at employing such tool(s), you will be able to increase the amounts because you become more comfortable with how you may be employing it.

 

[Mengerian]

There was a short term 'top' May-June 2014 around $620, before the price resumed its downward trend.

So, I wouldn't be surprised if there is support around $620 for a short term bottom before the price resumes the uptrend.

I'm guessing the market will keep testing/bouncing off support in the low/mid 600s till after the halving.

 

[JayJuanGee]

Some harsh posts in /r/bitcoinmarkets today:

Well, one thing is that at least the ex-trader realized that he had caused his own predicament by engaging in such risk-taking activities.

Through my whole adult life, I have engaged in considerable moderation when it comes to financial risk taking, and I do understand when a person is young, they could likely be in a better position to recover from losses that come from risk taking.

No matter what, I think that it is a much more sound practice to attempt to limit risk... let's say for example, you have $5k that you are going to invest into crypto, then maybe the risky portion of that allocated money should probably be less than 25% of your crypto holdings, and let's say that you lose all of the allocated 25%, then personally, I would self-impose that I have to earn that money back, somehow, before I am able to re-engage in risky behavior with the money. Of course, there are going to be a lot of individual and situational variations, but there's also gotta be some moderation framework (even with risk taking).