ChartBuddy
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@Richy_T
What would be interesting is the total fees of tx which are expiring or otherwise being ejected from the mempool as this would form the basis of a metric showing how much money the miners are permanently throwing away, instead of just delaying receipt of. As they must rationalize the loss of fees on full blocks by "catching up" in subsequent lulls.
What would be interesting is the total fees of tx which are expiring or otherwise being ejected from the mempool as this would form the basis of a metric showing how much money the miners are permanently throwing away, instead of just delaying receipt of. As they must rationalize the loss of fees on full blocks by "catching up" in subsequent lulls.
Richy_T
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Good point also. There are a couple of other potentially useful metrics also. I am timestamping each transaction as I come across it so can do some analysis there too.
Unfortunately, transactions can take a while to look up so polling the mempool is very slow and it's a lot to swallow each poll. I think I may have to interface directly with bitcoind as if I were a node so I can see transactions and blocks as they come it. I don't think there's a better way for me to see what older transactions look like so I can calculate the fees at this point.
Unfortunately, transactions can take a while to look up so polling the mempool is very slow and it's a lot to swallow each poll. I think I may have to interface directly with bitcoind as if I were a node so I can see transactions and blocks as they come it. I don't think there's a better way for me to see what older transactions look like so I can calculate the fees at this point.
ChartBuddy
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Currenly, there is a higher yen price on bitcoin than dollar price.
Let's dig in.
There is a question of what is the difference of CNY, the internal and most used yuan, and CNH, the so called off shore yuan. The difference is not obvious, and apparently there is no easy access to the definition. My take is that they are basically the same, but 1) they are bound by different money transfer regulations, and 2) the CNH market is rather more balanced, with private businesses making up the majority of demand and supply, while CNY has one dominant actor, the PBOC, who tries to fix the prices, or if you want to be kind, to stabilize it. Anyway, we don't know exactly what yuan/dollar price the different information services (bitcoinwisdom, bitcointicker, tradeblock, bitcoinity) use when they display the dollar price on the chinese bourses.
It turns out that OKCoin has a market for dollars and for yen. We can assume that at least for some customers, they have access to both dollars and yen. We don't need to assume the customers are chinese, nor that they are physically located in China. It is enough that some of the traders have access to both fiats.
I would like to assume that the market of traders on OKCoin have the same idea of the value of bitcoin, expressed in their bids and asks, and historically documented in the actual prices.
So, we can approximate a ratio of value between dollar and yuan amongst these traders.
Latest bitcoin price in dollars, traders on OKCoin: 507.64
Latest bitcoin price in yuan, traders on OKCoin: 3522 (corresponding to a dollar price of 537 ref the above).
TLDR;
This computes to a price of dollar in yuan at 6.94
Compare this to the USDCNY fix of 6.56 or to the USDCNH market of 6.578 friday night.
Conclusion: Actors affiliated to china wants to use their yuan to buy bitcoin, not their dollars. The bitcoin sellers wants dollars, edging the dollar price of bitcoin down.
And, possibly, the yuan is going to tank shortly.
And, possibly, the bitcoin bourses around the world are going to follow the chinese ones upwards.
Let's dig in.
There is a question of what is the difference of CNY, the internal and most used yuan, and CNH, the so called off shore yuan. The difference is not obvious, and apparently there is no easy access to the definition. My take is that they are basically the same, but 1) they are bound by different money transfer regulations, and 2) the CNH market is rather more balanced, with private businesses making up the majority of demand and supply, while CNY has one dominant actor, the PBOC, who tries to fix the prices, or if you want to be kind, to stabilize it. Anyway, we don't know exactly what yuan/dollar price the different information services (bitcoinwisdom, bitcointicker, tradeblock, bitcoinity) use when they display the dollar price on the chinese bourses.
It turns out that OKCoin has a market for dollars and for yen. We can assume that at least for some customers, they have access to both dollars and yen. We don't need to assume the customers are chinese, nor that they are physically located in China. It is enough that some of the traders have access to both fiats.
I would like to assume that the market of traders on OKCoin have the same idea of the value of bitcoin, expressed in their bids and asks, and historically documented in the actual prices.
So, we can approximate a ratio of value between dollar and yuan amongst these traders.
Latest bitcoin price in dollars, traders on OKCoin: 507.64
Latest bitcoin price in yuan, traders on OKCoin: 3522 (corresponding to a dollar price of 537 ref the above).
TLDR;
This computes to a price of dollar in yuan at 6.94
Compare this to the USDCNY fix of 6.56 or to the USDCNH market of 6.578 friday night.
Conclusion: Actors affiliated to china wants to use their yuan to buy bitcoin, not their dollars. The bitcoin sellers wants dollars, edging the dollar price of bitcoin down.
And, possibly, the yuan is going to tank shortly.
And, possibly, the bitcoin bourses around the world are going to follow the chinese ones upwards.
Last edited:
This is interesting thanks for posting. There is a lot happening in terms of cycology with regards to price.
obviously in China there are those who totally believe in bitcoin (honey badgers) and then there are a bunch of investors who are looking to hedge against the CNY.
USD still has a strong brand in China given the evidence you presented. it's fascinating to think for a minute that the demand for CNY-to-BTC is competing with the demand for CNY-to-USD but the demand for CNY-to-BTC is pushing up the BTC-USD price making it the more appealing option. (despite it being the easier option)
for Chinese wanting USD then, it's a win win. we'll probably see western exchanges lagging in price like we are. but the limited supply of bitcoin is probably going to ignite a new rush for a limited supply in China rinse and repeat resulting in more demand for a the total number of BTC.
I think it's happening ;-)
ChartBuddy
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A guess: 500 presents strong psychological resistance, and Bitfinex with it's leveraged trading is more prone to short-term volatility. IOW, traders on Bitstamp haven't seen 500 yet and are wary that breaking it on Bitfinex may have been just a fluke.
Possibly the traders on Bitstamp are more conservative in general.
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"When all the numbers required to win a prize have been marked off, the player shouts in order to attract the caller's attention. There are no formal rules as to what can be shouted, but most players will shout "Yes" or "Bingo"."
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ChartBuddy
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Market cap 8 billion.
"With bitcoin now 100% higher than when we first said China would send it soaring,and 15% higher in the past two days, why do we remain in the bullish camp? Simple: China has $30 trillion in deposits - which concerns about devaluations will make very "flighty" while the market cap of bitcoin is under $8 billion. If Chinese depositors have finally figured out to use bitcoin to get their funds out of the country, watch out BTC shorts."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-28/bitcoin-soaring-unprecedented-burst-chinese-buying
"With bitcoin now 100% higher than when we first said China would send it soaring,and 15% higher in the past two days, why do we remain in the bullish camp? Simple: China has $30 trillion in deposits - which concerns about devaluations will make very "flighty" while the market cap of bitcoin is under $8 billion. If Chinese depositors have finally figured out to use bitcoin to get their funds out of the country, watch out BTC shorts."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-28/bitcoin-soaring-unprecedented-burst-chinese-buying
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