It occurs to me that in the case of a persistent split in Bitcoin, there is the big additional factor of the network effect in trade. That is, will dark market users and other merchants and services want to accept Core bitcoins or big-block bitcoins? Trade is still a minor use of Bitcoin compared to store of value and investment, but since that investment is based on Bitcoin's future use in commerce, the investment should follow the trade network effect even though it is small, since it can be quite sticky.
As might be unfolding in ETH/ETC, merchants may gather around whatever seems the "official" version, which presents a headwind for us. However, if the fees on Core's chain are high enough, most won't want to deal with it. Or at least they will want to accept both coins, knowing many customers prefer to use the low-fee chain. If LN and such are ready in time and they are simple to use, a big block version would likely not fare well in trade. In all other cases, though, it likely would do well.
A while ago I said the fork away from Core/BS will happen when the deadweight loss from lack of capacity exceeds the friction involved in forking. The above suggests a slightly more precise condition: the fork away will happen when tx fees are high enough for a sustained period (or using LN, etc. are burdensome enough) to shift the bulk of the network effect in trade over to the big-block version - or at least to ensure both are accepted by most merchants.
This also seems to put a but more of a concrete upper bound on the amount of damage Core/BS can do before they get forked away. Unless of course they stall so much that people gradually turn to altcoins in commerce and one gains the network effect and takes it away from Bitcoin.
As might be unfolding in ETH/ETC, merchants may gather around whatever seems the "official" version, which presents a headwind for us. However, if the fees on Core's chain are high enough, most won't want to deal with it. Or at least they will want to accept both coins, knowing many customers prefer to use the low-fee chain. If LN and such are ready in time and they are simple to use, a big block version would likely not fare well in trade. In all other cases, though, it likely would do well.
A while ago I said the fork away from Core/BS will happen when the deadweight loss from lack of capacity exceeds the friction involved in forking. The above suggests a slightly more precise condition: the fork away will happen when tx fees are high enough for a sustained period (or using LN, etc. are burdensome enough) to shift the bulk of the network effect in trade over to the big-block version - or at least to ensure both are accepted by most merchants.
This also seems to put a but more of a concrete upper bound on the amount of damage Core/BS can do before they get forked away. Unless of course they stall so much that people gradually turn to altcoins in commerce and one gains the network effect and takes it away from Bitcoin.
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