Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

albin

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Nov 8, 2015
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@NashGuy

These last few pages of egomania are so boring I'm about to break my jaw yawning, so by no means do I have any interest in jumping into this Not-Even-Wrong Fest '2016.

But in general if you have ideas of which you are interested in convincing people, you will never get anywhere making everything all about you all the time and responding to even the smallest challenge as some kind of personal slight. If you can't talk to people without being this neurotic, then it makes the participant question whether the positions that you're taking are sincerely well-deliberated, or just some kind of persona you've taken on for defensive mechanism or personality reasons.

This is obviously not a critique of the validity or soundness of any arguments, but it's a heuristic that people intuitively employ to get a feel for whether they want to get into anything, and unfortunately your presentation is screaming for people to ignore and discredit you.
 

NashGuy

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Jul 19, 2016
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I think its a legit question and causes me to make two suggestions...

Nash wants us to ask WHO the faculty were that introduced him. And the point that he solves problems from angles and perspectives that are previously not traversed by others. He has a history of this.

Most importantly ideal money is from when he was a kid, in his 20's, and he fled the us to exchange his money for the swiss franc. He was saying the commi's and anti-commi governments were colluding against the people and he was going to free the world from such servitude.

I'm not even convinced he was wholly unware of Hayek but he references smith alot.

Nonetheless Nash, in his biography, was forced to renounce such thinking as delusional. But you will notice the communist comparison with Keynesian practices, shows he never left this thinking and in fact he presents it as quite rational.
[doublepost=1469054176][/doublepost]@albin Are you planning on engage in dialogue on the subject or simply attacking my character?
 

NashGuy

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Jul 19, 2016
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Effectively in an INSTANT. A flash of insight, I am claiming, a VERY long time ago...

Nash showed the value of money in trade http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/courses/spring02/papers/nash50a.pdf

Designed a decentralized computer AI system we still don't have http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_memoranda/2008/RM1361.pdf

Showed that encryption will eventually outrace decryption https://www.nsa.gov/news-features/declassified-documents/nash-letters/assets/files/nash_letters1.pdf

Showed all finite non-cooperative games DO have a solution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium

And then he came up with the idea for Ideal Money, which is a lecture now that says an e-currency with a stably issued supply will asymptotically take the power from central authorities and central banks. http://sites.stat.psu.edu/~babu/nash/money.pdf

This was as he was being locked up and tracked down by the navy (his own words). He was brought back from euro when he tried to denounce his citizenship and exchange his money for the swiss franc.
 

freetrader

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I get the feeling Nash showed us a lot of things in the same way that science fiction writers show us things.
This is excluding his game theoretical and mathematical work.

As you admit, his economic work lacks a certain rigor. I can't tell the decisive factor underlying that. It just makes it very hard to use it as a basis for reasoning, because the validity of the basis looks like it still needs edification.

I think we realize there could be a connection between Bitcoin and the Asymptotically Ideal Money that he envisioned. I'm interested in the success of Bitcoin for similar reasons, as I'm sure many are. This makes understanding your specific concerns regarding change/non-change of Bitcoin parameters a subject of interest. In particular, we could ask if the cryptocurrency that changes the least is indeed the most valuable (and in terms of WHAT do we assess that valuation)?

If we are to use a theory to extrapolate to the future (e.g. for certain changes made to a monetary system), then that theory should meet the same scientific standard as other theories in its field. And if not there, it should be raised to that standard and subjected to the same scrutiny.
 
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cliff

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Dec 15, 2015
345
854
Meta data on at least one powerpoint in the nash trove is interesting. Looks like one was created by a guy named "Sorat" and worked on by Nash - at least he saved it last.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/sorat

He's head of a tech dept at Priinceton. Might have been a good resource for Nash or partner of sorts. It does make me wonder what it would mean if Nash couldn't figure out powerpoint and just had Sorat slap the paper on a few slides - it would possibly eliminate Nash from a shortlist of single-individual Satoshi candidates.



 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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And who knows if it was even Nash that altered them? they could be from someone else's presentation.

Even variations of a paper that evolved over several decades.
 
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BldSwtTrs

Active Member
Sep 10, 2015
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Interesting.

Can you cite/quote this in Hayek's work (my blog has citations), that central planning is always bad? The infrastructure for the American constitution was centrally planned, planned by a relatively select few, do you claim Hayek was wholeheartedly against it?
I am surprised, you wrote a patronizing blog post explaining Hayek's thoughts but you ask citations about two really trivial point of his thoughts.

I am also surprised that you speak about the Constitutions. You don't seem to understand that this point doesn't relate to the topic of central planning. When one talk about central planning it relates about economic activity, not laws or politics (even if Hayek explains why all is interconnected, but it's not your point). A Constitution is not a plan, a Constitution is law.

You blog post haven't any citation "I’m not going to cite Hayek"
https://medium.com/@rextar4444/central-planning-the-kind-we-should-fear-and-the-kind-that-is-helpful-bb323a0284ad#.s4y03xgds

Planning, Science and Freedom, Hayek :

The reasons why the adoption of a system of central planning necessarily produces a totalitarian system are fairly simple. Whoever controls the means must decide which ends they are to serve. As under modern conditions control of economic activity means control of the material means for practically all our ends, it means control over nearly all our activities. The nature of the detailed scale of values which must guide the planning makes it impossible that it should be determined by anything like democratic means. The director of the planned system would have to impose his scale of values, his hierarchy of ends, which, if it is to be sufficient to determine the plan, must include a definite order of rank in which the status of each person is laid down. If the plan is to succeed or the planner to appear successful, the people must be made to believe that the objectives chosen are the right ones. Every criticism of the plan or the ideology underlying it must be treated as sabotage. There can be no freedom of thought, no freedom of the Press, where it is necessary that everything should be governed by a single system of thought.

Satoshi created bitcoin and left it the way it is, if you have read Hayek how does he feel that people feel entitled to changing his project when they could otherwise create their own?
Everybody should be free to change the Bitcoin project and let the market decides which change is better. Lightning and Sidechains are fine if there is significant blocksize increase alongside.

I think the market will prefer on chain scaling and not use off chain solutions. But I may be wrong so it's best to have all the options on the table (offchain and onchain scaling) and see what happens in a real world environment.

Small blockists are no as humble, they don't understand how clueless they are regarding what the market will choose.
Can you quote where Hayek calls reason limited? For some problems I think it is true the markets are smarter in a sense. But what we have here is a collective of individuals, each that are suggesting they themselves are smarter than the engineers, and the engineers keep suggesting that the network, the market that exists, does not agree with the individuals complaints
You will find all the citations you need regarding Hayek antirationalism in this book :
https://www.amazon.com/Fatal-Conceit-Errors-Socialism-Collected/dp/0226320669
You should read it, it's a fascinating book.

Within it, Hayek explains why engineers are more prone to the hybris of central planning. Since they are smart, they overemphasize reason and are bling to everything else that matters. They tend to not understand how the complexities of the civilization arise without any conscious design.

Market is a way to coordinate human activity, scattered wisdom is convey by market prices and humans follow the signals send by the prices. The order, efficiency and prosperity are not a conscious process, they don't come from a top down construction. The order, efficiency and prosperity are emerging, it's a bottom up process.

Individuals are not claiming they are smarter than engineers, they just want to use stuff that matches their need. The problem starts when engineers are claiming they understand better than individuals what individuals need.

It's not to say that individuals are better than engineers. Engineers are very efficient at a tiny thing, but they suck at everything else that is important.
 
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freetrader

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Dec 16, 2015
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Admittedly this is a pretty good flowchart:
(apologies if this is not a new one - I just hadn't seen it before)



(look, I'm not beyond stealing from /r/Bitcoin :)
Source: https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4traec/do_you_need_a_blockchainpng/
[doublepost=1469056862][/doublepost]
It does make me wonder what it would mean if Nash couldn't figure out powerpoint and just had Sorat slap the paper on a few slides - it would possibly eliminate Nash from a shortlist of single-individual Satoshi candidates.
From personal experience: I've had to call on company's head of document management a few times to sort out Microsoft product nastiness as relates to templates etc.

It's perfectly reasonable to not read too much in to such metadata about the actual skill set of the author. I actually had colleagues give Powerpoint the cold shoulder and produce their own slides from ReST or LaTex. And I did see some LaTeX versions of Ideal Money in that repository :)
 
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NashGuy

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Jul 19, 2016
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As you admit, his economic work lacks a certain rigor.
You are commenting on works you are ADMITTEDLY not familiar with. And commenting about someone known as the worlds smartest man. And I do NOT admit this, you have misrepresented my sentiments.
 

freetrader

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Yeah, and I freely admit that's my own impression after reading your blog on him and going to the readily-searchable public sources.

I didn't know he was the world's smartest man. How do they measure these things?

On the rigor thing:
Nash is always unapologetic in this regard, he doesn't explain his references in depth. And like I quoted earlier he did this for obfuscation to hide his ideas from his government and central authority.
Yeah, proper references are de rigeur in scientific work. I suppose that goes equally for a social science.
The obfuscation part - it's an interesting assertion which on its face does not convince me of the rigor of his work. An interesting side question would be whether you see this obfuscation as a necessary (vital?) continued measure in discussions of Ideal Money, and whether you apply it in your own expositions of Nash's work. And if not, what has changed?
 
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cliff

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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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i'm going thru the Jstor version of Nash's paper again. here's an interesting part:



thus, if we can deem SC's or LN as "bad money", it's quite possible it's b/c the blocksize debate is indeed "political" and not "technical".
 

taxed4ever

New Member
May 31, 2016
20
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What a fantastic day seeing ETH defeating "hackers" by pulling off a successful hard-fork.

Ethereum not only suffered a "hack", they suffered unbelievable abuse from most Core developers and their associates.

Similar to Bitcoin, we're dealing with scammers by the name of Bitcoin Core.

@NashGuy is a perfect example of this.

This outfit will say and do whatever to convince you that they are right, to follow their scheme.

I look forward to the hard-fork that removes these toxic individuals from Bitcoin.
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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@NashGuy talks about Bitcoin not having stable values. why of course it doesn't. it was never expected to be during this bootstrapping period of asymptotic issuance. i have always stated here in this thread that volatility should be expected all the way out to 2140 when the last coin fraction is issued. that's b/c of the relative inflation during issuance which will exponentially decrease. until that time, speculators will gyrate the price. but this kind of bootstrapping was required by design b/c Satoshi wanted to create speculation around Bitcoin in order to drive demand, which is how it bootstraps. that's b/c Bitcoin doesn't have the luster and tangibility of gold with which it has to compete.
 

freetrader

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cypherdoc

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remember i've made reference to an economic paper i've seen in the past that argues that any country that adopts a deflationary currency risks having foreign speculators raid it's sound currency? or that it's economy might suffer to a degree as speculator hodl the currency itself. well, it looks like i read it here:

 
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NashGuy

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Jul 19, 2016
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I am surprised, you wrote a patronizing blog post explaining Hayek's thoughts but you ask citations about two really trivial point of his thoughts.

I am also surprised that you speak about the Constitutions. You don't seem to understand that this point doesn't relate to the topic of central planning. When one talk about central planning it relates about economic activity, not laws or politics (even if Hayek explains why all is interconnected, but it's not your point). A Constitution is not a plan, a Constitution is law.
I am glad you affirm this. It is my thesis in the post below. And yes the continuation was planned and designed by a few brilliant men. How could you refute this?

Correct as I stated I am tried of players like you claiming I have no quotes or citations in my works when I am constantly presenting such quoted and cited referenced materials. I am know for being exhaustive in this respect so what are you accusing me of? https://thewealthofchips.wordpress.com/?s=hayek

https://thewealthofchips.wordpress.com/2015/07/05/hayeks-incredible-machine/

Planning, Science and Freedom, Hayek :

The reasons why the adoption of a system of central planning necessarily produces a totalitarian system are fairly simple. Whoever controls the means must decide which ends they are to serve. As under modern conditions control of economic activity means control of the material means for practically all our ends, it means control over nearly all our activities. The nature of the detailed scale of values which must guide the planning makes it impossible that it should be determined by anything like democratic means. The director of the planned system would have to impose his scale of values, his hierarchy of ends, which, if it is to be sufficient to determine the plan, must include a definite order of rank in which the status of each person is laid down. If the plan is to succeed or the planner to appear successful, the people must be made to believe that the objectives chosen are the right ones. Every criticism of the plan or the ideology underlying it must be treated as sabotage. There can be no freedom of thought, no freedom of the Press, where it is necessary that everything should be governed by a single system of thought.


Everybody should be free to change the Bitcoin project and let the market decides which change is better. Lightning and Sidechains are fine if there is significant blocksize increase alongside.
Everyone is free and the markets in regard to bitcoin is the consensus of the network.

I think the market will prefer on chain scaling and not use off chain solutions. But I may be wrong so it's best to have all the options on the table (offchain and onchain scaling) and see what happens in a real world environment.
Yes and that is your subjective opinion. The real world is observable today.
Small blockists are no as humble, they don't understand how clueless they are regarding what the market will choose.
This is also your individual opinion. And small blockists in general like to not that the market has chosen. It chose bitcoin.

You will find all the citations you need regarding Hayek antirationalism in this book :
https://www.amazon.com/Fatal-Conceit-Errors-Socialism-Collected/dp/0226320669
You should read it, it's a fascinating book.
I am quite familiar with it. Hand typed my notes it seems: https://thewealthofchips.wordpress.com/2016/02/01/notes-on-hayek-the-fatal-conceit/

Within it, Hayek explains why engineers are more prone to the hybris of central planning. Since they are smart, they overemphasize reason and are bling to everything else that matters. They tend to not understand how the complexities of the civilization arise without any conscious design.
Awesome know you know why I think Hearn and Gavin are wrong.

Market is a way to coordinate human activity, scattered wisdom is convey by market prices and humans follow the signals send by the prices. The order, efficiency and prosperity are not a conscious process, they don't come from a top down construction. The order, efficiency and prosperity are emerging, it's a bottom up process.
A bottom up process is something you will need to describe. Its only a metaphor at this point.

Individuals are not claiming they are smarter than engineers, they just want to use stuff that matches their need. The problem starts when engineers are claiming they understand better than individuals what individuals need.
Understand better than who? Who was steve jobs? Are you saying the individual knows best or the engineer?

It's not to say that individuals are better than engineers. Engineers are very efficient at a tiny thing, but they suck at everything else that is important.
You haven't said anything here. Hayek's thesis is NOT that the individual knows better than the engineer. Not at all.[/quote][/QUOTE]
[doublepost=1469059852][/doublepost]
http://sites.stat.psu.edu/~babu/nash/money.pdf