@albin
Wow. So he has determined experimentally that real-time tx propagation is 88% of bandwidth usage and block propagation is 12%.
In which case the 2MB is needed immediately! Only another 12%. The flow of new transactions is independent of block-size and magnified if people try to re-submit with RBF in a bidding war for limited block space. Coming soon to a congested network: wallets with automatic RBF incrementing.
Of course what is missing is the data burst factor. The network has a lot of capacity for real-time tx, but block propagation is on the critical path for miners.
I think Maxwell's timeline is clear:
2004 Prove that inflation-controlled digital currency can't work.
2008 Proven wrong by Satoshi
2012 Begins spreading meme to Core Dev about how broken Bitcoin is
2016 Bitcoin finally gets broken and alts like Etherium are rampant
2020 Lightning Network ready to save the burnt-out shell of Bitcoin but Maxwell is proven right after all.