Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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@freetrader

Who from the Classic contingent actually used that sub? Doesn't look like anybody. Looks like those idiots are just looking to create a diversion.
 

Erdogan

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Aug 30, 2015
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@Erdogan I agree, I suppose I would not go so far as to say it is the only possibility, being completely unprecedented in history I suppose I can not get myself to be that certain. I also think it is very unlikely that there would be any type of meaningfully split over this blocksize debate. However it is good to keep in mind that even a small group of people, lets say twenty people for example could choose not to upgrade and you would have a split, not a meaningful one since its economic value would be very low and for most people it would be very clear what the real Bitcoin is.

I suppose for me the ability to split represents the right to self determination, it is one of the mechanisms that ensures the continued freedom and decentralization of the protocol, it is a concept that I have embraced and I would not be such an ardent supporter of Bitcoin if that capability did not exist. I suppose you can say that I consider the ability for Bitcoin to split as a positive and necessary feature of Bitcoin. However that is not the same as thinking that Bitcoin will split over this blocksize debate, which I do think is very unlikely. If that did happen however which I do not think it would, it would however imply that there was a large enough ideological division in Bitcoin, in that case a split would have been justified. So in reality I see both situations as being positive, reflecting the will of the economic majority is exactly what the governance mechanism of Bitcoin is supposed to do after all.
Then we are in complete agreement. A split due to coin quantum: The keynesian branch will certainly fail, like all fiats. So no problem there.
 

VeritasSapere

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Nov 16, 2015
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Indeed we are in agreement, I suppose it is easy to mistake some of my theories for negativity, when really I am seeing the positive in these features. The keynesian branch will indeed certainly fail, just like the fiats, it is just the matter of timing that might still be unknown to us.
 
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albin

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Nov 8, 2015
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That's really enlightened that the /r/bitcoinclassic trolls are

dedicated to preserving Bitcoin in its original form and true to its original rules, even in the event of a contentious hard fork.
I totally agree with them about returning to blocksize not being a consensus rule, and a de facto 32 MB cap due to message limit built into the transport protocol.
 

lunar

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Aug 28, 2015
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@VeritasSapere
Bitcoin and its ability to split in the case of a massive ideological divergence.
I still disagree and am with @Erdogan on this point. How do you propose it to happen and this state persist?

Let's follow it through. We have two sides with fundamental ideological differences.

If the PoW function remains the same on each side, the Miners VERY quickly move to the longest chain. Brian's slides 10-15. That's their Job. Any other option finds miners on the shortest chain haemorrhaging money and on the short end of a huge difficulty gap. This state can only persist so long as it is sponsored by an irrational actors. This new state of bifurcated chains will last only as long as the irrational actors have funds.
(Rhetoric: but if this was the case surely the irrational actor with sufficient funds could buy enough hash power to be the mainchain? )

The other scenario is more obvious. The inferior chain realises the above and has to immediately change the PoW leaving the majority of miners with a choice. Do nothing and remain on the longest chain or switch hashing algorithms (all their chips) and support the lesser chain.
(Rhetoric- who's the altcoin now?)

Edit by changing hashing algorithms, obviously this follows to mean new ASICs must be installed.
 
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cypherdoc

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Switching algos on custom HW isn't possible, again a converging force.
 

solex

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Aug 22, 2015
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The other scenario is more obvious. The inferior chain realises the above and has to immediately change the PoW leaving the majority of miners with a choice. Do nothing and remain on the longest chain or switch hashing algorithms and support the lesser chain.
(Rhetoric- who's the altcoin now?)
The problem with switching algo on the weak fork (apart from the price being more like $3 than $300) is that there is no branding for commercial use. At minimum, say LTC, has its own identity and can be listed separately on commercial websites. But how does the weak fork get any economic traction? It is not going to be accepted as BTC-1 or BTC-B. That is just dumb. If it rebrands then it is really just one of 1000 alts.
 

VeritasSapere

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@VeritasSapere

I still disagree and am with @Erdogan on this point. How do you propose it to happen and this state persist?
I do not see any reason why two chains with the same genesis block and hashing algorithm can not co exist. Today there are already many altcoins that also use SHA256 as the mining algorithm, what happens is that a equilibrium forms in part because of the multi pools where these chains often have similar profitability based on the block reward, miners are essentially always chasing profit. Switching between chains attempting to maximize their profit.
Let's follow it through. We have two sides with fundamental ideological differences.

If the PoW function remains the same on each side, the Miners VERY quickly move to the longest chain. Brian's slides 10-15. That's their Job. Any other option finds miners on the shortest chain haemorrhaging money and on the short end of a huge difficulty gap.
Miners will move to where the profit is and a equilibrium would form, essentially the amount of hashpower each pool would have would depend on the value of its block reward and relative market value. However in the case of a much smaller chain the difficulty gap would indeed be a problem, it would require some urgent action by the developers to fix that if they intend on the smaller chain surviving.

However I think in most cases the smaller chain would just die, I think the amount of divergence required in order to cause such a split needs to be very significant for it to even be successful. This is the force that ensures the chain stays as one, however if the will is strong enough that chain can be split, this is something that I think should be embraced.

If you think about it, this already happens with orphans in a way, almost everyday blocks are orphaned off and ignored by the rest of the network. In some way this is the Bitcoin blockchain giving birth to new chains which are ignored and allowed to die. One day for whatever reason someone might choose to give life to such an orphaned chain. Being a bit poetic here, but I could not resist making that point. :)
This state can only persist so long as it is sponsored by an irrational actors. This new state of bifurcated chains will last only as long as the irrational actors have funds.
In my example the miners are not acting irrational, it would require a very significant divergence of ideological believe to cause such an event, how great of a divergence I do not know since we have not witnessed this taking place yet and like I said before I think this is extremely unlikely to take place in the case of Classic and Unlimited forking the network over the blocksize limit. Exactly because of these forces that you mention that are instrumental in the success of such a chain fork. Considering the support that Classic already has they could hard fork the network relatively soon and I still do not think it would lead to any type of significant split.
The other scenario is more obvious. The inferior chain realises the above and has to immediately change the PoW leaving the majority of miners with a choice. Do nothing and remain on the longest chain or switch hashing algorithms (all their chips) and support the lesser chain.
I do not think this would be necessary, that there are already many other altcoins out there today I think in part also proves that such chains can co-exist.

I also think in the case of a minority fork, the minor fork would be not that much different then one of the other thousands of altcoins out there indeed @solex @lunar.

One thought that I have always found rather amusing, which I believe I did share earlier on this thread. Is that lets say 1MBforever small chain fork of Bitcoin came onto the altcoin market. Being somewhat familiar with the altcoin space, objectively looking at such a coin I would consider it a very uninteresting and uninnovative altcoin. :D
 
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lunar

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I do not see any reason why two chains with the same genesis block and hashing algorithm can not co exist.
Actually I guess were differing not on reasoning, but difference in opinion on when the smaller chain becomes extinct or no longer called Bitcoin.

After the split we will have two equally valid sets of coins. (diverging in validity at the point of fork)

Miners will move to where the profit is and a equilibrium would form,
This is where the the incentives have changed. Miners will no longer be the primary economic actor. You have now one set of coins ( like Schroedingers coins ) Either short chain or long chain but neither until they are spent. Which chain is more valuable? (by definition the one with the longest chain) So as the price of the two coins diverges it is now Hodlers that have the power.
Will you spend your coins on the 320$ chain for ideology or on the 420$ chain? So the self fulfilling spiral into irrelevancy quickens.
 

freetrader

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@lunar: not sure I follow entirely the "longest chain is more valuable" argument.

If I was hodling I would remain so until a clear majority of the hashing power has reformed behind one of the forks.

Until then I would expect the hashing power distribution to get tested by a lot of small transactions, to determine conditions.

Surely few would risk their hodlings which remain valid on both chains by default.

Plus, there would be those who want to spend their coin due to needs, but their decisions would possibly be shaped by merchant choice of chain (both options not guaranteed!). So not entirely up to the current holders, but the larger economy too...
 
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albin

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Nov 8, 2015
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Jesus Christ on a cracker, Adam Back has officially gone off the reservation.

Let's put this in perspective, this guy doesn't really have any significant skin in the game wrt Bitcoin. It's not even necessarily a sure thing that Bitcoin would win as a result of the revolution in fintech it started (although I personally am of the opinion to bet on Bitcoin), so Adam Back could in principle potentially make an obscene amount of money in any number of related enterprises.

So why does he purport to care so much about Bitcoin? And corollary, doesn't this strongly indicate that he's being bankrolled to destroy Bitcoin?

 
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lunar

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it's all speculative at this point. We've never seen a true ecosystem wide fork occur. That's why it's an interesting topic ;)

The 'more valuable' argument stems from the exchanges and SPV wallets all following the longest chain. You/me might not wish to spend our coins until a clear winner is decided but some will, a price divergence between the two chains is inevitable.

Is there a prediction market where I could bet at 50/50 odds on which chain would be worth more after a 2MB hardfork? :D
 

Norway

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Sep 29, 2015
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I have never seen this before:
[doublepost=1455414646][/doublepost]I found the video above, searching for this great clip:
[doublepost=1455415305,1455414462][/doublepost]EDIT: I think bitcoin has lost a lot of the cultural drive. It's sad. BUT! Bitcoin is a honeybadger. Doesn't care. Rezilliantz... Hard to kill.
VERY
HARD
TO KILL TO DEATH
IRL
 
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Erdogan

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Aug 30, 2015
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@lunar: not sure I follow entirely the "longest chain is more valuable" argument.

If I was hodling I would remain so until a clear majority of the hashing power has reformed behind one of the forks.

Until then I would expect the hashing power distribution to get tested by a lot of small transactions, to determine conditions.

Surely few would risk their hodlings which remain valid on both chains by default.

Plus, there would be those who want to spend their coin due to needs, but their decisions would possibly be shaped by merchant choice of chain (both options not guaranteed!). So not entirely up to the current holders, but the larger economy too...
Right, the value will also depend on the specific parameters of the coins. A coin with higher block reward will have lower value. The same with other possible parameters, centralization, reduced anonymity or whatever.
 
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