Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Discussion in 'Economics and Policy' started by cypherdoc, Aug 28, 2015.

  1. VeritasSapere

    VeritasSapere
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    You make good points here. I was going to wait a bit longer before saying this, but I think that if major companies do not rally behind a block size increase through an alternative client implementation and we do not gain significantly more momentum after January then we should just fork the network our selfs, regardless of the majority. I know this is a very controversial and scary thing to say, but this might just become necessary in the future. At least this way we will have both chains in the market and people will be able to make this choice for themselves. I still think it is to early for such a radical move so I will not mention it again until this actually becomes a necessary course of action.
     
    #3501 VeritasSapere, Dec 17, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2015
  2. Inca

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    I think there is a mighty power struggle going on behind the scenes to save Core.

    Gavin has dropped hints and now Jeff has made his position clear. Within 24 hours Maxwell drops commit rights. Smells like revolution to me.
     
    #3502 Inca, Dec 17, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2015
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  3. VeritasSapere

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    @Inca This is also my hope. I hope we will see an alliance of powerful players within the Bitcoin space soon make an announcement in support of a fork to increase the blocksize.
     
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  4. Peter R

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    I know, right?! My post is now at the top of /r/bitcoin and it still hasn't been deleted. Maybe this is a sign that the war is coming to an end...
     
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  5. cypherdoc

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    even if Maxwell is playing some sort of insidious game, i think today's events are significantly positive for big blockists.

    as noted above in my comment about @Peter R's reddit thread, sentiment seems to be changing with Peter being just one indicator. their great leader Maxwell is apparently, in their eyes, down and out.

    maybe.
     
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  6. yrral86

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    I don't know how the rate of new wells has changed, but all the wells near me are still pumping.
     
  7. cypherdoc

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    i think they are lying to you:

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. awemany

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    Are you in North Dakota or 'somewhere up there'?
    --- Double Post Merged, Dec 17, 2015 ---
    @Justus Ranvier : So I wanted to eventually call you 'The Bitcoin dog' :)

    But now I see that on the committer page, jgarzik copied you and became a dog, too.
     
  9. VeritasSapere

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    As far as I understand fracking accounts for a significant amount of the oil production today, which is a big change compared to a decade ago.
     
  10. solex

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    @awemany

    Justus has long been the John Connor of Bitcoin!
     
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  11. Zangelbert Bingledack

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    Yeah, that mechanism is investment.

    As an example, the altcoin and "blockchain" world is a cornucopia of distractions taking advantage of almost every pitfall in understanding it is possible to make with regard to Bitcoin. Misapprehend just one aspect of Bitcoin, and boom you lost money on an altcoin. Boom you just lost money on a misguided blockchain project. Boom you lost money investing in Blockstream, missing out on the gains in BTC price growth you could have had.

    You can see it even today in the subreddits: "Welp, this situation looks insurmountable so I sold all my bitcoins." Failed to understand antifragility? Boom you just lost money. Too jumpy? Lose money. Too beholden to authority figures? Lose money. Fail to understand how decentralized governance will have to work? Lose money.

    And once fork arbitrage or similar market-based decision mechanism becomes a thing, the process becomes even more direct and granular as people will actually win or lose money on specific judgments about code changes. The mechanism can then truly be said to be tantamount to a prediction market, with all the legendary accuracy and ability to crystallize the wisdom of crowds that entails.

    Over time, as elaborated here, the market will vest more and more wealth (and therefore control) in those who get it and get all of it. And less and less control with those who fail to get it, or fail to get all of it. And the bar gets higher and higher, cypherdoc's "most people will lose money in this space" gets more and more true. Can you ride this bull?
     
    #3511 Zangelbert Bingledack, Dec 17, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2015
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  12. cypherdoc

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    wait a minute.

    that's JR's dog!
    --- Double Post Merged, Dec 17, 2015, Original Post Date: Dec 17, 2015 ---
    Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

    setting up for the plunge:

    [​IMG]
    --- Double Post Merged, Dec 17, 2015 ---
    ouch.

    $DJT gives up almost 2 of the last 3d of gains. look the hell out:

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Zangelbert Bingledack

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    Random thought: only one Blockstream guy on the Core committers now (sipa / Pieter Wuille), right? Well with infinite veto power that's all they need, so why take the extra PR hit of having two BS guys on there? "You can't call it Blockstream Core now, there's only one BS guy but two MIT guys!"

    If, judging from Pieter's odd response during question time at the Scaling Conference, he has been fully consensified on top of also being paid a salary by Blockstream, Greg's "departure" might be a brilliant "hey see how much I matter" move that doubles as appearing to make Greg look out of the picture while he actually controls things from behind the scenes through Pieter.

    The Puppetmaster.

    I don't know enough about Pieter to know if this is viable, though. He seems like a good guy, but I don't have any priors for his ability to stay independent, unlike Jeff and Luke. /fun conspiracy mode
     
    #3513 Zangelbert Bingledack, Dec 17, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2015
  14. Zarathustra

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    I'm not saying that the battle is won
    But on Saturday night all those kids in the sun
    Wrested technology's sword from the hand of the war lords
    Oh, oh, oh, the tide is turning


     
  15. rocks

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    Completely agree with this.
     
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  16. awemany

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    @Zangelbert Bingledack , @rocks:

    It is already working. He's getting human sympathy now. As I said, he knows how to manipulate people.

    I have just been called mercilessly cold on reddit. LOL.

    I am not and I will not trample on him and laugh in his face if he admits defeat and pulls back completely from the blocksize debate and Core decision making. But that did in no way happen yet!

    He is still my very special enemy.

    And this is just another chess move.
     
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  17. cypherdoc

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    @Zangelbert Bingledack

    i don't think so.

    not having Maxwell's huge mouth trolling all the forums, dev lists, and IRC is a major hit to swaying general sentiment. Pieter is incapable of doing so on his own. just look at Reddit today. the double hit of btcdrak and gmax out has quieted the miniblockists trolling almost completely. at least today.

    what i think is more likely is that his BS investors probably finally got so tired of the negative publicity generated by gmax that they are the one's who may have pulled the plug on him.
     
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  18. rocks

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    The problem with this is while Satoshi and Gavin were able to just roll out changes during your time periods, Wladimir remains a block. Even with Greg supposedly dropping commit access, as long as Wladimir can veto then no one else is in control. Since with the blocksize debate "do nothing" means "force a new artificial cap into Bitcoin", anyone with veto rights has the ability to force a new fee market.

    I think the other committers will have to just implement BIP101 as a controversial change over others objections. Perhaps this is the "big thing" being hinted at. Not a full new client fork, but a not 100% dev consensus change. There are pros and cons to this.

    But frankly I don't like how everything is in the dark and it feel that decisions are being made behind closed doors either way. I understand why that is the case, this is politics after all. But I don't like it.

    I guess the one redeeming thing with Bitcoin is the decisions made behind closed doors in the end are forced to be visible for all. The same can not be said for any government of central bank today....
     
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  19. theZerg

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    If I could blindly speculate it would be that somebody close to Blockstream probably finally communicated to them what a complete and total PR disaster this has been. Probably the VCs as they have the influence to do so and the sensitivity to these issues. We may seen a seasoned CEO take over the titular Blockstream lead very soon (or that might have been the dichotomy presented -- leave Bitcoin commit access or get a CEO)...

    And now Blockstream can just claim "we're just another Bitcoin company... we don't have any more influence than any other"... and still block commits.

    Its too little months too late for me. However, at the same time it removes my #1 issue which is that Blockstream should recuse itself from direct influence on this issue since it has a conflict of interest.
     
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  20. cypherdoc

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    wow, quite the affirmation of all i've believed beginning over two years ago:

    "I had a long chat with him (from my real personae) over many hours over a night quite a few months back, it became readily apparent what his intentions were, it actually made me a bit sick to my stomach (thankfully I also knew that there would be massive resistance).


    I remember the human in him, unfortunately this is the part that got twisted somewhere along the way. And I say this because he used to have a very different viewpoint towards block size and centralized control.


    So, no, I won't remember the human in him. I will remember his generosity and commitment to what he believed in before his ideology changed. But maybe it never changed, maybe he ingratiated himself for the long game, I don't know. I do think his attitude changed over the years, and I do think that it coincidentally coincided with the emergence of blockstream."


     
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    #3520 cypherdoc, Dec 17, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2015