Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[awemany]

@cypherdoc: He could make (or use one of his existing?) sockpuppets to do so. However, they wouldn't have the dev cred and clout, so maybe you're right.

The consensifiying did to a large extend happen by Greg himself.

Remember the 'small blocks will keep the network load down' sentiment that was totally wrong and existing on reddit? It even affected my thinking until the 'stress tests' happened and I actually got my thinking into the right frame again. Maxblocksize limits block size and not number of transaction flying around.

That was very successful consensification/mass manipulation. And I think Greg and his puppets were to a large extend responsible for that.

 

[Justus Ranvier]

Are you in North Dakota or 'somewhere up there'?
[doublepost=1450384452][/doublepost]@Justus Ranvier : So I wanted to eventually call you 'The Bitcoin dog'

But now I see that on the committer page, jgarzik copied you and became a dog, too.

I suppose I'll have to escalate then.


...if I can ever get them to pose well at the same time.

 

[awemany]

@cypherdoc: Apart from your miner delivery issue with gmax (that I simply cannot say anything about), wasn't there something else on BCT or the Bitcoin foundation that he showed some true colors? I think I remember seeing something from you.

@Justus Ranvier : Ok, Mr. Double Dog

 

[cypherdoc]

yes, it started with simple negative interactions with him on BCT and IRC channels where he demonstrated the same authoritarian and bearish Bitcoin attitude that he does today. but this really set it off:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181168.msg1973084#msg1973084
[doublepost=1450389460][/doublepost]that's why when i found out he was behind SC's and forming a for profit company around them, i was already on high alert. this was around July 2014 or maybe a coupla months earlier:

 

[awemany]

A couple posts up, someone asked for his CV and someone else mentioned that he's a Wikipedia author(/mod/admin?). I do wonder whether he honed his skills in that position. Given that I have seen some insights/leaks of Wikimedia internals with some pretty interesting characters...

EDIT:
GMax, from further down the BCT thread:

Gathering input is good— but what you posted wasn't a genuine effort to get opinions it was a heavily biased rabel-rousing rant which has had the effect of causing people to make threats of violence against me. And if I'm uncharitable I might conclude from the fact that you never mentioned it in the main discussion that you intended to keep it hidden so that your incorrect claims would go unchallenged... or perhaps you just didn't think to mention it, it happens... but still stinks.

So is he referring to the same vote here?

The SJWs are using those supposed 'threats of violence' very successfully for destroying online communities. Did he back this claim up?

After all, even though it was (and still is) a pretty harsh blocksize debate on reddit, I think it stayed overall civil. I never saw anything like a direct threat being made. Of course that would also be illegal, but I think with the number of posts that I have read, I guess I must have crossed such a thing before it would have been reported (if it would have been a common occurance).

Given that there is a lot of money at stake and the severity of the threat posed by Blockstream's actions, I am actually positively surprised by the overall civility of the Bitcoin space.

 

[Mengerian]

Thought people in this thread might find this update interesting:

Well, well, well... I am back for an update.

Originally (in Post #1) sold my house for approximately $400,000 Canadian, and got approximately 648 BTC in the transaction. BTC is currently at approximately $450 US each. This makes my investment worth $291,600 in U.S. Dollars. Now also note that the Canadian Dollar has tanked really hard in the last year and is now at a 12 year low, around .72c US. That makes my Bitcoin currently worth $405,000 Canadian!. I am currently up on my initial investment! I did weather the storm when it sat at $200 for a long time (and crapped my pants from time to time and did a lot of drinking), but now my time has come. For all those that laughed, we will see who is laughing in 2016!

HODL!

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year,

Tay More

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508254.msg13263187#msg13263187

 

[cypherdoc]

@Peter R

you're still pinned to the top of r/bitcoin!

have you ever had that chart deleted by r/bitcoin mods?

 

[Peter R]

@cypherdoc

Yes, it was deleted when I posted it a few months ago.

 

[cypherdoc]

you're moving up in the world!

 

[Justus Ranvier]

After all, even though it was (and still is) a pretty harsh blocksize debate on reddit, I think it stayed overall civil. I never saw anything like a direct threat being made. Of course that would also be illegal, but I think with the number of posts that I have read, I guess I must have crossed such a thing before it would have been reported (if it would have been a common occurance).

There was this, but it wasn't directed at Maxwell:

http://trilema.com/2015/theres-a-one-bitcoin-reward-for-the-death-of-pieter-wuille-details-below/

 

[awemany]

@Justus Ranvier: Yup, I saw that. Link is currently not working - this was even about SW, right?

As a core dev, something like that would get at me, too. If Pieter would resign commit access due to that, I would understand that.

 

[JVWVU]

As far as I understand fracking accounts for a significant amount of the oil production today, which is a big change compared to a decade ago.

The rate of new well pad sites has greatly decreased in this region. The existing wells are going to pump til dry and in fracking thats about 3 years. The pipelines still need to greatly expand to get the nat gas out.

This is the Marcellus/Utica region and probably about the only Nat Gas that is at or above breakeven right now.

 

[cypherdoc]

all this talk about natgas:

“This market is in real trouble,” Mr. Shelton said. “Just wait for the bankruptcies.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-17/just-wait-bankruptcies-latest-market-real-trouble

this doesn't look too good:

 

[lunar]

w.r.t the oil price @awemany @VeritasSapere @cypherdoc @JVWVU

Don't quote me on this as it's a massively complex issue. It seems it can roughly be summed thus.

The good ole USA has been hard at it for the last 6 years or so, more or less doubling their output. This is largely due to the new fracking industry and an attempt to become self sufficient. The funding for this is has been the huge amounts of newly created QE debt and 0% cheap money.

Result - vast fracking reserves have been bought online and it's pushed out imports from other parts of the world Nigeria et al .. but key player is Saudi Arabia.
Some fracking oil can break even a low as 25$ but 60$ is the start of the pain point. Venezuela for eg is way up at 150$ (so they're fracked whatever happens) good stats here.

So Key OPEC player Saudi would normally cut their quotas in periods of lower demand, but this time they've decided to gain %market share rather than keep the oil price high. The theory goes they have vast treasury reserves and some oil that can produce down to 2$ a barrel. Main goal of this was to break the USA fracking industry that required huge sums of cheap debt to get up and running. (theory 2 suggests its USA and Saudi combined trying to break Russian markets) Either way the plan appears to be working many US oil firms are on the brink of collapse. not to mention oil-producing oil states Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil and Russia. With Iran newly free of sanctions and ISIS 'secretly' selling oil to turkey it's a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

HOWEVER -- and this is where it gets real fuzzy. The timing the Saudi decision was really poor (chicken and egg here) as the world was going into a massive economic slowdown. Producing a huge supply glut. (They're stacking full oil tankers as nobody wants them) It appears it's become a free for all, everyone for themselves. OPEC is essentially dead, and we could be in for a long period of cheap oil ??? - prediction we'll see 25$ before, if ever we see 100$.

It might be worth its own thread? Oil collapsing Solar up ( swanson's law ) more or less Moore's law for solar power, combined with linear increasing efficiencies some nearly upto 50%. I'd predict over the next 10-15 years we are nearing the 'Whale Oil moment' for the Petroleum industry.

disclaimer: i'm no expert just a geophysicist who used to own Sunpower shares before Mr market started saying bad news was good news.

 

[cypherdoc]

@lunarboy

btwn 2004 and 2009, i used to study the energy industry pretty closely for investment reasons. read bearish pieces like Twilight in the Desert and the Oil Drum. that whole thesis didn't turn out so well. one thing i'm convinced of though is this; solar won't get traction until oil prices go berserk. the EROEI is too high for solar to compete. that's my feeling at least.

 

[solex]

Random thought: only one Blockstream guy on the Core committers now (sipa / Pieter Wuille), right? Well with infinite veto power that's all they need, so why take the extra PR hit of having two BS guys on there? "You can't call it Blockstream Core now, there's only one BS guy but two MIT guys!"

If, judging from Pieter's odd response during question time at the Scaling Conference, he has been fully consensified on top of also being paid a salary by Blockstream, Greg's "departure" might be a brilliant "hey see how much I matter" move that doubles as appearing to make Greg look out of the picture while he actually controls things from behind the scenes through Pieter.

The Puppetmaster.

I don't know enough about Pieter to know if this is viable, though. He seems like a good guy, but I don't have any priors for his ability to stay independent, unlike Jeff and Luke. /fun conspiracy mode

I have received only one PM from Maxwell, which was about 6 months ago, however it had enough background info to give me confidence that the "random thought" scenario which ZB has outlined is over-the-top and won't really work that way. Pieter has already been on the mailing list saying he can live with a small limit increase. He will compromise when it is appropriate to do so.
"I am personally fine with a short-term small block size bump to kick the can down the road if that is what the ecosystem desires, but I can only agree with merging it in Core if I'm convinced that there is no strong opposition to it from others."

I know that this is a small concession, but at least it is the flexibility that was missing entirely from Maxwell.

@rocks' concern about Wladimir is also unwarranted. I believe that Wladimir wants to work within a process of compromise and won't be a roadblock on his own.
[doublepost=1450395834,1450395176][/doublepost]@cypherdoc
I used to read The Oil Drum avidly and was sucked into their peak oil doom and gloom. Still surprised that it ran out of steam.

 

[rocks]

@solex, that is good to hear, but I want to see the compromise first before I'll start to trust again.

The problem with comments like this
"I am personally fine with a short-term small block size bump to kick the can down the road if that is what the ecosystem desires, but I can only agree with merging it in Core if I'm convinced that there is no strong opposition to it from others."

is that as Jeff highlighted in his post yesterday, doing nothing is in fact a change. When Wladimir says he'll only allow an increase if there is no strong opposition, then he is still a road block. His default is to force a change into Bitcoin by not doing anything.

The default should only be:
"I am personally fine with leaving the cap in, but only if there is no strong opposition to leaving it in from others"

See the difference, in this version the cap always moves up unless the vast majority want to put a cap in. That is how it should be. And this is why BIP101 is so important, BIP101 makes the default to increase and makes the second stance above the default, not Wladimir's quote.

So yes I am still concerned by Wladimir because he does not seem to be onboard with Satoshi's vision.

 

[cypherdoc]

tomorrow's option expiration.

i wonder if that $1.1T put will come into play...
[doublepost=1450396318][/doublepost]

I used to read The Oil Drum avidly and was sucked into their peak oil doom and gloom. Still surprised that it ran out of steam.

Ha! i just went to their site for the first time in about 6 yrs.

their last post was 2013. kind of a shame. i used to enjoy the articles from there altho it all ended up being a bunch of FUD.

you need to watch out for the same dynamic over on Zerohedge, altho i still read it fairly regularly.

 

[cypherdoc]

geezuz crimony.

just watch this video of the new Bitfury mining facilities in Georgia. nvm that you can't understand Georgian. this is much bigger than a few guys by the name's of Greg, Adam, Peter, & Luke:

 

[rocks]

@cypherdoc
Today some countries run their entire economies by being lucky to have access to cheap commodities and selling those commodities.

I suspect over time we are going to see the same thing with countries that have cheap access to natural sources of power (such as remote but cheap geothermal). Bitcoin mining will continue to grow in every nook and cranny that has cheap power, and in some cases it might actually become a major source of funds for some countries.