- Aug 29, 2015
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The Story of Mr. Bitcoin
Benjamin Graham, in his famous book The Intelligent Investor, came up with the allegory of “Mr. Market” as a useful mental tool to help investors. Similarly, I think it can be helpful to think of Bitcoin this way. If the Bitcoin market were personified, what would his characteristics be? Who is Mr. Bitcoin? What does he want, and how does he behave?
In a previous post, I concluded by suggesting that future bitcoin holders will act as guardians of its value, and will have to be “prescient, patient, productive, and persistent”. This is the future Mr. Bitcoin wants. His goal is to be owned by people possessing these qualities. But how can he accomplish this goal? He does it by subjecting holders and prospective buyers to a series of tests to ensure they are worthy.
Mr. Bitcoin’s first task was to find people who were prescient. He did this by exhibiting traits attractive to people knowledgeable in open source software, distributed systems, cryptography, and economics. About 99% of people who met Mr. Bitcoin dismissed him immediately, they could not connect the dots from these diverse subject areas to properly understand his future potential. But a select few chose to buy or mine some bitcoin.
Next Mr. Bitcoin needed to ensure that his holders were patient. To do this, he spiked his price in a series of rapid rises. Of the 1% who had bought or mined, most were not patient enough and sold with nice modest gains. When the remaining holders became too exuberant, he went through several bear markets to make sure only those who had long time horizons and wouldn’t get frustrated hung around.
More and more people got to know Mr. Bitcoin and became holders, and he was growing nicely. But Mr. Bitcoin started to get worried. What if his new holders were not really prescient, but were just attracted to him for superficial reasons? Mr. Bitcoin wants his holders to understand and appreciate deep characteristics, not just his surface attributes. He decided to get rid of those who were simply attracted to him for the sake of novelty, technical gimmickry, or fear of missing out. To accomplish this he showed them a long parade of altcoins and scammy get-rich-quick schemes. Many holders were distracted by these diversions, but those who understood Mr. Bitcoin and believed in his long term vision stuck with him.
Things were going along nicely, and the holders were happy. Mr. Bitcoin had a good base of holders and was ready to build for the future. For this he needed productive people. He showed that he could be useful for practical purposes, and that people could build companies around him. He was still fairly complex and hard to approach, so only those with good technical skills could come along. He also raised his price so that only people who had demonstrated their productivity by having saved money could invest in him.
Mr. Bitcoin was growing and evolving. He was expanding his technical capabilities and building services like better exchanges and more secure wallets. He kept his price in a two-year bear market to keep the get-rich-quick crowd away, and his investors focused on building companies and products and gradually accumulating their holdings. But again Mr. Bitcoin grew restless. He knew that the future would present many challenges and obstacles to be overcome. He needed his people to gain toughness for the coming struggles, learn perseverance in the face of setbacks, to not give up but instead be persistent.
This is the test we are currently facing. We were prescient to get involved with Bitcoin and see its potential. We were patient through bubbles, bear markets, and media obituaries. Entrepreneurs and developers are building out the ecosystem and infrastructure. Now we just need to keep working, stick to our guns, and persevere through current challenges. This is what Bitcoin wants. We will grow stronger and more resilient with every challenge that is overcome until Bitcoin is unstoppable.
Benjamin Graham, in his famous book The Intelligent Investor, came up with the allegory of “Mr. Market” as a useful mental tool to help investors. Similarly, I think it can be helpful to think of Bitcoin this way. If the Bitcoin market were personified, what would his characteristics be? Who is Mr. Bitcoin? What does he want, and how does he behave?
In a previous post, I concluded by suggesting that future bitcoin holders will act as guardians of its value, and will have to be “prescient, patient, productive, and persistent”. This is the future Mr. Bitcoin wants. His goal is to be owned by people possessing these qualities. But how can he accomplish this goal? He does it by subjecting holders and prospective buyers to a series of tests to ensure they are worthy.
Mr. Bitcoin’s first task was to find people who were prescient. He did this by exhibiting traits attractive to people knowledgeable in open source software, distributed systems, cryptography, and economics. About 99% of people who met Mr. Bitcoin dismissed him immediately, they could not connect the dots from these diverse subject areas to properly understand his future potential. But a select few chose to buy or mine some bitcoin.
Next Mr. Bitcoin needed to ensure that his holders were patient. To do this, he spiked his price in a series of rapid rises. Of the 1% who had bought or mined, most were not patient enough and sold with nice modest gains. When the remaining holders became too exuberant, he went through several bear markets to make sure only those who had long time horizons and wouldn’t get frustrated hung around.
More and more people got to know Mr. Bitcoin and became holders, and he was growing nicely. But Mr. Bitcoin started to get worried. What if his new holders were not really prescient, but were just attracted to him for superficial reasons? Mr. Bitcoin wants his holders to understand and appreciate deep characteristics, not just his surface attributes. He decided to get rid of those who were simply attracted to him for the sake of novelty, technical gimmickry, or fear of missing out. To accomplish this he showed them a long parade of altcoins and scammy get-rich-quick schemes. Many holders were distracted by these diversions, but those who understood Mr. Bitcoin and believed in his long term vision stuck with him.
Things were going along nicely, and the holders were happy. Mr. Bitcoin had a good base of holders and was ready to build for the future. For this he needed productive people. He showed that he could be useful for practical purposes, and that people could build companies around him. He was still fairly complex and hard to approach, so only those with good technical skills could come along. He also raised his price so that only people who had demonstrated their productivity by having saved money could invest in him.
Mr. Bitcoin was growing and evolving. He was expanding his technical capabilities and building services like better exchanges and more secure wallets. He kept his price in a two-year bear market to keep the get-rich-quick crowd away, and his investors focused on building companies and products and gradually accumulating their holdings. But again Mr. Bitcoin grew restless. He knew that the future would present many challenges and obstacles to be overcome. He needed his people to gain toughness for the coming struggles, learn perseverance in the face of setbacks, to not give up but instead be persistent.
This is the test we are currently facing. We were prescient to get involved with Bitcoin and see its potential. We were patient through bubbles, bear markets, and media obituaries. Entrepreneurs and developers are building out the ecosystem and infrastructure. Now we just need to keep working, stick to our guns, and persevere through current challenges. This is what Bitcoin wants. We will grow stronger and more resilient with every challenge that is overcome until Bitcoin is unstoppable.
