Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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talk about bearishness; take a look at this one. energy ETF below the 2008 crisis level; whoa (20Y monthly forming a negative H&S formation):

 
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cypherdoc

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fear at all time closing high:

 
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rocks

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Sep 24, 2015
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It amazes me how many people who own/trade bitcoin never use it. Here is a reddit comment from a long term holder/trader who made his first on block transaction in 3 years and was surprised at how poor the experience was compared to before. That is not an asset that is going to transform the world.


Bitcoin bounced off of the 10 year old support line on the log chart this week, it held up quite strong while the whole stock market continued to crash lower. That is very bullish especially as we enter the next halving cycle and the FED is simultaneously pumping money into the system like mad (reserve requirements dropped to zero, that's nuts).

But most Bitcoin holders/traders don't seem to understand yet how non-functioning BTC is today. This next run will likely make a new ATH, but it is the time to cash out of any remaining BTC IMHO.

This is the chart that tracks how useful something is
 
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cypherdoc

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congrats @digitsu

 

rocks

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Sep 24, 2015
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In leveraged exchange news

BitMex Crash Actions

On Mar 12 the price of Bitcoin started to crash. After stopping briefly at 5600 the price fell below 3900 on all major fiat exchanges. The magnitude of this movement placed a huge stress on the ability of Bitmex to handle liquidations of losing traders. In theory BitMex will in this situation:

Liquidate a position when the account equity is not enough to cover the loss on the position. If the liquidation price is better than the bankruptcy price, the excess goes into the insurance fund. If the liquidation price is worse, the insurance fund covers the difference. If the insurance fund runs out, the winning trader is auto deleveraged.

This move was different, the move was so sharp that Bitmex chose to leave liquidations hanging. At one point there was 20m in bids and over 100m in pending long liquidations. Any move to fill these liquidations as designed would risk fully wiping out the insurance fund. Bitmex decides to gamble and protect the insurance fund and the site by not filling liquidations. At this point Bitmex needs the price to pump, yet it is held down by these liquidations. The most amazing possible thing to save the site would be a temporary pause to allow spot to pump and orderbooks to fill. Bitmex gets their miracle as an ‘unplanned cloud physical event’ (later re-classified as a 'DDOS attack on the chat box' occurs). It is impossible to know the exact details behind this action. What is known and that Bitmex agrees to: this event was enormously beneficial (possibly saving the entire site), and trivially within the ability of Bitmex to carry out.

Once the site was down the price was able to pump. When the site comes back online, traders who were short are now liquidated based on the mark price (5400) even though the actual orderbooks are trading at (4500). Bitmex is able to create a forced bid (short liquidation) and use this to fill a forced ask (long liquidation) while the insurance fund profits off this entire spread. As the market stabilizes Bitmex continues to send in long liquidations for several hours. The gamble paid off and the insurance fund increases after a catastrophic event, to over 36,000 coins.

What does this mean?

Bitmex will act to preserve itself when market stress arises. The insurance fund will switch from a theoretical backstop to a speculative trading instrument controlled by Bitmex trading in its own interest. I have always considered Bitmex one of the most trustworthy sites, I have never come across a credible report of them stealing or having weak security. This event however demonstrates that their advertised systems are at the whim of what they feel is needed for the site and their insurance fund will exploit traders as needed in extreme situations.
 
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cypherdoc

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In leveraged exchange news

BitMex Crash Actions
Haha, remember the infamous zhoutong of bitcoinica, the then (circa late 2011 or so) supposed genius 18yo kid coder from Singapore/Thailand (?) who started the first leveraged bitcoin exchange who ultimately was found to use the same types of internal manipulations upon whom I inflicted the then infamous double pump squeeze when the price was $3 or so that ripped the faces off the shorts? Ah, the good ol days
 

cbeast

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Sep 15, 2015
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Remember the original plan for Ripple before XPR? It was intended to trade IOUs as cash. BSV will make the sharing economy the backing of a new money system. A small BSV investment can fuel tokenized private money, but it will have the added benefit of a fully documented legal contract with legal recourse. So now sharing economy services can be recession-proof and free from the false bank-driven economy.
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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the shitlord will reign. i wonder what happens to just about all the relevant devs who have/are supporting BCHN and @freetrader?
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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looks who's back; the crazy man author of the ~$28T govt debt backed guarantee in 2008:

one thing's for sure, you know where the vast majority of this $money is goin'. hint: it ain't you.

so the main takeaways from Kashkari:

1. they are concerned about a teetering UST market as i had warned and as was evidenced last week
2. their stance is to act swiftly and with enormous force (much more so and faster than 2008) in a no holds all printing hands on deck strategy

i really fail to see how Bitcoins don't do well here.
 

79b79aa8

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Sep 22, 2015
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to do well they must be able to move. some bitcoins don't move, much less in times of stress.
But most Bitcoin holders/traders don't seem to understand yet how non-functioning BTC is today. This next run will likely make a new ATH, but it is the time to cash out of any remaining BTC IMHO.
i don't see a next run for BTC. it is maxed out and unable to handle the real time.