Norway
Well-Known Member
- Sep 29, 2015
- 2,424
- 6,410
Yeah, I was going with my guts on that prediction. But I know my limitations. That's why I don't day trade at all. Never have, never will. I know I can't predict the short term future of bitcoin (or stock) price based on history / technical analysis.
Sidenote:
I'm not walking into the same trap as Craig Wright's beautiful, charming and funny niece River is walking into. The trap of adapting your graphs to your theory and your theory to your graphs simultaneously to get a self-defeating confirmation that your theory was good for one single purpose: To increase your confidence in yourself. In the end, River will win the game economically. But that has nothing to do with Elliot waves. It's just because the inventor of Bitcoin was her uncle, and she was smart enough to listen and understand the fundamentals.
It's theoretically possible to do it. All you need to do is to find a pattern that the rest of the market can't see. The simplest fundamental pattern in trade is the season of the year. Harvesting after the summer etc.
In a market where you are the only one who have seen the season's effect on supply and demand for ski, you will buy ski in the summer and sell them in the winter.
The problem is, it's too obvious to see for your competitors. So their interactions will nullify the information.
Over 20 years ago, my much smarter and agile brain worked on these problems as a student. I studied advanced physics and maths, including so-called "chaos theory". Chaos theory lets you discover hidden patterns that traditional math and human perception observe as chaos - no pattern.
So, the way I figured out this had to be done was this:
1) Collect historical data from stock exchanges.
2) Analyze the data, find a hidden pattern and trade against the pattern.
3) Don't share the pattern with others, as they will destroy your pattern.
Even if you did 1,2,3 perfect, in the end, you would destroy the pattern yourself by being the counterweight.
But you could pick up a lot of money until it didn't work anymore, right?
Anyway, this is sort of very complex cold war strategies. And there are many evolved competing algorithms today, my algo's wouldn't last 5 minutes. Or maybe they would, if I designed them from scratch today and not taking clues or information from the current exchange algo warfare. Lack of knowledge of current "algo trends" is most likely more a strength than a weakness.
The vodka bottle I drove 20 km to fetch earlier today when BCH was just under USD 300 is beginning to take its toll. My hands operating the keyboard, my translation of Norwegian language in my head to English, my perception of my readers and my empathy is going to zero, haha.
In many people's eyes, it's a sad celebration for a near 50 yo man to sit alone in the deep forests of Norway drinking a bottle of vodka and writing some words on an Internet forum.
But they can go to hell!
Today was the revenge of the nerds! The real nerds, not the "I identify as a nerd and am a dev because I know how to do a simple IF-THEN statement in Javascript" losers.
Today was payback. The dragon is rising. Cheers!
