Looking forward to watch the discussion between the two Aussie men bad.
The swarm (aka the market) is the ruler. Not the central planners.
Steve Keen 2009:
Their empirical conclusion was just the opposite: rather than fiat money being created first and credit money following with a lag, the sequence was reversed: credit money was created first, and fiat money was then created about a year later:
“There is no evidence that either the monetary base or M1 leads the cycle, although some economists still believe this monetary myth. Both the monetary base and M1 series are generally procyclical and, if anything, the monetary base lags the cycle slightly. (p. 11)
The difference in the behavior of M1 and M2 suggests that the difference of these aggregates (M2 minus M1) should be considered… The difference of M2 — M1 leads the cycle by even more than M2, with the lead being about three quarters.” (p. 12)
Thus rather than credit money being created with a lag after government money, the data shows that credit money is created first, up to a year before there are changes in base money. This contradicts the money multiplier model of how credit and debt are created: rather than fiat money being needed to “seed” the credit creation process, credit is created first and then after that, base money changes.
(...)
Thus causation in money creation runs in the opposite direction to that of the money multiplier model: the credit money dog wags the fiat money tail. Both the actual level of money in the system, and the component of it that is created by the government, are controlled by the commercial system itself, and not by the Federal Reserve.
Central Banks around the world learnt this lesson the hard way in the 1970s and 1980s when they attempted to control the money supply, following neoclassical economist Milton Friedman’s theory of “monetarism” that blamed inflation on increases in the money supply.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01/31/therovingcavaliersofcredit/
great walk down memory lane. Keen was one of my favorites to follow back during the GFC and that concept was one of the key ingredients to understanding what happened. I remember miscreanity and I discussing him and his theories back here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg443129#msg443129
[doublepost=1568199542,1568198755][/doublepost]btw
@8up is right to miss that type of discussion here. it's much more academic and analytical when we used to discuss guys like Keen, gold, and when I did more charting and price projections (iirc
@8up has a charting service). but quite frankly, it's alot of work and I don't feel the urgency to teach or debate others like when it was more critical for Bitcoins success back in the early days. imo, Bitcoin of one sha256 form or another has made it; we're going on 11y. and 2020, my mission accomplished year, is right around the corner. my, time goes fast.
[doublepost=1568200294][/doublepost]otoh, what we discuss here today is also important game theory wise and at this stage of Bitcoin's career. it's important to understand the politics and tribalness if you will. much info can be gleaned even from that process. after all, this forum and many others have been infiltrated by saboteurs of one kind or another. we've known for a while now that certain NSA- like tactics are being employed across the space. so you either become aware or be square.