There is no such thing as a probability. If they will confirm, then the probability will have been exactly 100%. If they won't, the probability will have been 100% too.
You can think of probability as being about the state of your knowledge, rather than an inherent property of the world. You already behave as if probability exists: when you drive a car you estimate the probability of a crash as between 0 and 100. You don't think it's exactly zero because you wear a seatbelt or do other things to make crashes less likely. You don't think it's 100 because otherwise you wouldn't drive.
I have no knowledge about how the events will unfold. What if the parties reach an agreement before the case starts, or the Kleiman side withdraw the evidence? I don't want to bet on these things.
This can be solved with conditional bets: if it doesn't go to trial or the trial doesn't reach a conclusion, then the bet could be canceled and we could get full refunds.
what you don't realize is that ppl here are mostly non devs (unlike yourself) with other successful lives and really don't care or won't bother to take the time to setup a childish bet on these big things. i just don't have the time or care to bet someone i've never met and quibble over the internet on the nuances, exceptions, restrictions, risks et al that it takes to set bets up.
It's really not that hard. The point of me offering to bet up to a large amount is to compensate people for any hassle. Your objection might be valid if I had offered to bet $100. Are you asking us to believe that you and everyone in this thread who believe's CSW's story about submitting the doc to the Australian government is just too busy to spend a couple hours in order to make tens of thousands of dollars? A more plausible explanation is that no one here is really that confident that CSW is telling the truth.
The kind of people who feel intimidated when someone challenges them to a bet are people who aren't that confident in what they were claiming and resent being forced to walk back their claims. If they did sincerely believe what they were claiming they'd see it as a welcome opportunity for free money.
Even worse than not accepting the bet is failing to give a probability estimate that CSW could produce such evidence if the trial went to its conclusion. There's really no excuse for that other than not wanting to admit how uncertain you are for rhetorical purposes.
