Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[lunar]

I know there are a few of you here that still have your doubts about credibility or integrity. I'd urge you to put aside any preconceptions, and have a watch of this panel discussion.

This is the Bitcoin I signed up for. This is the common goal in our infinite game. Sure Aussies can be headstrong, that goes doubly so for smart people, but there's a passion and honesty here, that can't be faked. We share a common dream, let's put aside our egos and work towards achieving it.

The Future of Bitcoin, Ethereum, ICOs & The Blockchain​

*first 20 mins are skipable intro.

 

[humanitee]

Theory: Cash can't compete with the Bitcoin Ponzi currently, there are too many censored forums, too many naive reporters and journalists, too many parrots, and too many bagholders. When the Tether scam finally explodes it takes 50%-90% off the Bitcoin and crypto market cap.

When this happens chain death spiral ensues for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Cash makes up on the ratio but doesn't rise to new highs for years as the public loses a shit ton of money in the process, setting crypto back another 3-5 years.

 

[adamstgbit]

@humanitee

tether has less then 1 billion dollar market cap, i dont think it could half the BTC price.

The BTC price will get cut in half on its own merit ( as it always has ) sooner or later. when that happens poeple will look for the "why", and with BCH rising as BTC crashes the answer will be pretty clear....

right now they have the luxury of being in a bubble, so they CAN be made to believe that if they only "all promises to hold value in BTC " then BTC will value will grow and grow and grow, and they are willing to "wait for the prefect solution".

when the bubble pops, suddenly holding something that has no utility beyond HODLing, is going to seem like non-scene, and the idea of waiting an undefined amount of time, for a magical solution which others have a long list of reasons why it will suck....

the bulk of the market participants will move on to BCH, and then the big-dumb-money will capitulate.

 

[humanitee]

Hi @adamstgbit,

Tether has less than a billion dollar market cap, but if you go market buy with 20 million of them at one time on BFX you can add BILLIONS to BTC's market cap. Everyone is following them because they have the highest volume, which could easily be wash trades.

Furthermore, look at this: http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD

Notice anything horrifying about that? The books on all exchanges are pretty thin, and BFX is the top exchange besides MEX (which is futures and doesn't affect the underlying).

Imagine the Tether scam comes to light, either through a bank run, government intervention of some sort, or some other catalyst.

When all these people buying Bitcoin to make a quick dollar hear they invested in something that was artificially manipulated, they are going to puke those back up. Enough to cause serious damage. Because most cryptos are priced in either BTC or USDT, the snowball starts rolling down the hill. Then the chain death spiral mechanics come into play, further annihilating valuations. The snowball is then too big and destroys everything in its path. This is going to catch the millions of new crypto buyers completely off guard because it's not reported on at all in the general media.


https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7ddy48/tether_just_printed_another_20_million_usdt_out/

This is just one example of this happening. It has happened multiple times now for months.

 

[adamstgbit]

@humanitee

good point, but i think you overstate the "problem" with tether. fact is in theory ( at least ) there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the idea.
If a million poeple try tether and throw a messily 100$ into it for fun, then tether would NEED to print 100 million USDT "out of thin air"...

is tether and its partners truly "printing out of thin air" and an running a factional reserve? Probably!
will it ever "blow up", i guess it depends on a few things, things tether knows about and can control to a large extent... so i think it "blowing up" is unlikely, you know unless they are REALLY abusing their invention like mad fools. IMO
[doublepost=1510877307,1510876467][/doublepost]i was impressed with the speed of the recovery.
now BTC seems to be heading for another ATH

going over 9000?

FOOOOOR SUUUUREEEE
[doublepost=1510877400][/doublepost]US has the FED printing money propping up the market

we have tether.

 

[molecular]

LOL, Peter Schiff going off on a rant about bitcoin it's like he almost bought into the consent but couldn't detach from his business interest. He's relatively accurate on on his latest criticism of BTC the full rant starts at 30:21, it's like he has no idea there is BCH.

damn, this is so good I had to transcribe a relevant part:

"Bitcoin is digital Gold". This is the most ridiculous argument, because the people who are saying this: they're admitting Bitcoin is too slow and too expensive to use as a medium of exchange. That is what I said in the beginning. Early on the people that were criticizing me for promoting gold over Bitcoin said: gold's no good, you can't use gold to buy a cup of coffee, but I can use Bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee. So the reason that Bitcoin was going to be better than gold is because it was going to be so much easier to use your Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. That was the advantage that it had.

He's exactly right! (I didn't think I would have to agree with this guy for once)

And this makes it plain to see that when you attack the medium of exchange function (by inreasing transactional friction, for exampl), you invite all the bad things Schiff has been criticizing about Bitcoin in the past: that it's essentially worth nothing, that it's a ponzi scheme and that people are going to lose a lot of money on it. (well, the last one is debatable because the price can be supported (at least for a while) by other things than true value.

By increasing the transactional friction beyond a certain point (that point is at a pretty low fee level, I might add) you essentially make these things be true. You change Bitcoin from being sound money to being a ponzi scheme. And hence in the end you destroy it.

Using it as a base layer for some new payment system you devise doesn't change that. Only reducing transaction cost changes that. Hence only Bitcoin Cash (which does exactly that) is the real Bitcoin.

(I just *had* to post this to both subreddits)

 

[albin]

tether has less then 1 billion dollar market cap, i dont think it could half the BTC price.

I don't have any good estimate on what the float of salable bitcoin is, but it's entirely within the realm of possibility depending on what's really going on inside Bitfinex, that if Tether is a fake USD printing scam, we could be talking like $500 BTC.

 

[lunar]

Good read.

https://medium.com/@ProfFaustus/the-trouble-with-too-much-of-anything-f1a41545ee51

Fig 2: Bitcoin
[doublepost=1510937658][/doublepost]

 

[torusJKL]

The animation is awesome.

 

[torusJKL]

This is an interesting attack vector with blocks that are always full.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7ddmmm/psa_if_your_transaction_on_the_bitcoin_network/

When a tx is removed from the mempool because it never confirmed than the receiver could trick the sender to create another tx and right afterwards rebroadcast the old one (and this time he can use CPFP to make it confirm).

If they use different utxo's then the receiver could get double the bitcoins.

 

[AdrianX]

I just wanted to post this here for the record. The more I think about it "The Flip" (thanks for sharing that animation @lunar) the more I think it is not only going to happen, it actually needs to happen for bitcoin to grow. There is so much smart, dumb, dumb smart money holding bitcoin for no other reason than investing in the greater fool's strategy, it is illiquid this illiquid BTC is impeding growth and adoption, it's about to be liberated and grow bitcoin BCH. The 80% of issued coins that are not distributing with low fees is being held back by a damn that is about to burst.

For those who had religious instruction forced down there throats at school may relate to interpretation of the 10 commandments. The first 3 which stand out for me when I substitute the concept of "understanding and knowledge" with the word "God" - there is a Rapture coming, and Luke-Jr has no idea.

 

[79b79aa8]

@AdrianX, for the record, you were among the first to cry foul when the sidechain concept surfaced and it was not yet apparent Blockstream was attempting to coopt Bitcoin Core in order to advance their own business model.

Originally it seemed at least plausible that the bitcoin blockchain could not handle really massive transaction traffic, in which case capacity could be added by implementing sidechains. I once spoke to Jeff Garzick after a conference and he was of that opinion.

You steadfastedly argued, based on the limited information available, that sidechains were likely to alter the economic incentives for miners, hence bitcoin's security model -- one of the pillars upon which its value rests -- and therefore were ill-advised. This was while good faith was still being assumed.

It was Jorge Stolfi, of all people, who in the end showed (to my satisfaction, anyways) that the sidechain concept was flawed computer science. By that time, however, the Lightning Network had taken its place. In the end, LN may or may not become a payment system acquiring massive adoption. But if it does (the first step, locking in SW + small blocks, has been achieved), it will have fundamentally altered the way in which bitcoin was projected to work. It is not clear at all that the new model is superior to Satoshi's, either conceptually, which is controversial to assess, or in terms of dollars per coin, which it is not.

Thank you for your analysis, foresight, and willingness to educate the rest of us.

 

[79b79aa8]

Also for the record, Gregory Maxwell treated Peter Rizun disgracefully and inexcusably, for voicing reasoned disagreements about the development of Bitcoin, even after the latter made fundamental contributions to the system's understanding (the Metcalfe law correlation among others). @Peter R got vilified in online fora, banned, and was not allowed to present his work at certain industry conferences.

For those who care to look, that kind of behavior gives important insight about the direction SW1X coin has taken.

 

[Mengerian]

Article about @Norway's meetup group:

Norwegians Develop a Thirst for Bitcoin Cash

 

[Norway]

@Mengerian Wow!

 

[adamstgbit]

I don't have any good estimate on what the float of salable bitcoin is, but it's entirely within the realm of possibility depending on what's really going on inside Bitfinex, that if Tether is a fake USD printing scam, we could be talking like $500 BTC.

IMO tether blowing up would be about as sufficient as the #13th exchange by volume blowing up.

 

[go1111111]

I've done it and sold Bitcoin Gold successfully. The key is to move your BTC / BCH first, so there's nothing left in the private key that the BTG devs can possibly swindle. Then you move the BTG - the devs apparently did not think of replay-attacking their own coin to prevent selling - and Changelly worked for small amounts. For additional protection, don't install any of their "official" software, use Coinomi.

This is not very newbie friendly - anyone who forgets to move their BTC/BCH could be in for a disaster - but it works.

I also sold all my BTG recently and agree with this process: first move your BTC and BCH using Core/Electrum for BTC and BUcash (or another wallet you trust) for BCH. Then sweep your private key into Coinomi to claim your BTG. Use either Changelly (you can exchange around 50 BTG at a time without too much slippage) or HitBTC until some better exchanges add BTG support.

HitBTC seems kind of sketchy so you probably want to trade in such a way that you never have a huge amount of value on it. 'm betting Changelly uses HitBTC in the background though so you'll have exposure to it either way.

Coinomi is no longer open source, but I couldn't find anyone claiming that they lost coins because of them, so I doubt they're going to steal your coins. I trust them more than BTG devs.

 

[megadeth]

BTG market is being well supported by core shills. Not complaining, BCH is amazing to trade and I could use all the capital I can get.

 

[go1111111]

Yes, my hypothesis for the BTG high price / limited time opportunity is this:

Core supporters used BTG as a pawn in their attacks against BCH. They actively hyped up BTG to try to send a message of "Look at all these crazy forks! First BCH, now BTG!" They were trying to cause "fork fatigue" so that BCH and S2X were more likely to fail.

So BTG got lots of free advertising that it would never have gotten on its own merits. Lots of uninformed crypto traders now think BTG is semi-legit and might have a similar price trajectory as BCH.

Most holders of BTC/BCH realize that BTG has no merit, but it's currently hard for them to sell because you have to use sketchy wallet software or sketchy exchanges, and go through various phases of moving your BTC and BCH first.

So we have a temporary situation right now of high demand (due to the Core pumping) and low supply (which will increase as more wallets and exchanges add BTG support). This is why I tried to sell as quickly as possible. So far the steady decline in BTG price is confirming my theory, but we'll see.

 

[adamstgbit]

pretty sure only reason why BTG is able to support 150$ is because very few poeple could be bothered to access their BTG. many exchanges did not even acknowledging BTG ( BCH has 131 markets, BTG has 25... )

i think its likely that the BTG will very slowly be dumped. poeple will not bother with it not for now, but when they feel the need to whip out one of their dusty old paper wallets, they'll transfer the BTC, and THEN remember " oh ya i get also get the BTG off this wallet! free money!"

i guess the same type of thing might happen to BCH but to a much smaller degree, because:
1) People took the trouble to DUMP it because they legitimately HATED it.
2) pretty much all exchanges made BCH accessible
3) BCH had more value thus more incentive for poeple to take the trouble to access it
4) a significant % of bitcoin actually believe in BCH, and BCH is actually useful & used. why dump a good crypto that likely to live long and prosper?

BTG has none of these points.
1) no one "HATES it" no one give a shit about it
2) few exchanges grant user BTG
3) ...
4) ...

BTG is shit, it has little value, its going to be under low but fairly consent and never ending downward pressure. we all know this, and we still all cant be bothered to open our cold storage to get to the free money.

ops i did a rant