Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

sickpig

Active Member
Aug 28, 2015
926
2,541
@awemany so according to maxwell unclogging the network as quickly as possible will have a negative effect on the system.

On my book this sound rather crazy.

He never stops to "shock" me (in a negative way).
 

awemany

Well-Known Member
Aug 19, 2015
1,387
5,054
@sickpig: I found it to be such a typical, almost defining quote. He's talking like the fed chairman when arguing along the lines of 'we shock/don't shock the system', while also doing the usual twisting of the truth until it turned into the opposite. Along with neglecting / pointing away from the actual shock to the system - running into the limit. All in one short sentence.

Along other lines, looks like that so far I am wrong with my prediction that the Core folks will align with S2X to keep their power.

Now Peter Todd is doubling down with 'Bitpay is committing fraud'.

They are in for one very rude awakening here.

Can't say I dislike that part, the final and brutal destruction of their reputation. I still expect a general price crash, especially if BCC comes close (within 30% or so) to the BTC price. The resulting confusion will allow for one massive PR exploit against Bitcoin. I expected TPTB to do this already, but my suspicion now is that they'll time it with a ratio closer to 1:1 of BCC and BTC. Helps to drive the point of: "See now we have 42mio Bitcoin! What did they tell you about no inflation?"


Jihan had to summon the ghost of the chain split. It looks like we won't get rid of it too soon and getting rid of it might become a very painful process.

It would have been better if the miners and users grasped the whitepaper and the idea behind mining before this will happen.

Note also that if BCC overtakes BTC, there will have been a period of partial incentive failure.

Can Bitcoin be destroyed by mass idiocy?

There is still a mess on the horizon.
 
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sickpig

Active Member
Aug 28, 2015
926
2,541
@awemany I share part of your vision, as @freetrader said surely "we're in uncharted territory"

on last thing about miner profitability, I think we have to take into account also the fee revenue of the miners. This is sometng http://fork.lol calls DARI (Difficulty Adjusted Reward Index):

(block coinbase+fees in satoshis) / (block difficulty) * (exchange rate[1] in USD)
According to this formula mining on BTC is still more profitable than mining on Bitcoin Cash. in fact as of this writing BTC miner could potentially collect 1.18x the reward (in USD) that a BCH miner could collect.

I'm sure that the situation will change after this weekend due to BCH difficulty adjustment.

Courtesy of http://fork.lol/

[1] The coin price at time the block was found.
 
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Norway

Well-Known Member
Sep 29, 2015
2,424
6,410
I think the relation between price and hashpower is a form of feedback loop. It's not just a one way process where miners chase profitability.

I think hashpower also affects price. If 30% of current hashpower moves to Bitcoin Cash, it's a strong and important signal to the market. It will probably increase the price. Then more miners follow etc.

The usability of each currency in terms of backlogs and fees is not even a part of this reasoning. But it's a factor that adds to the process in a big way. A catalyst. Even here, Bitcoin Cash has a great advantage. When blocks come far apart in time, we just make the blocks bigger and provide good service to the users. Lack of usability is what will put the final nail in the Segwit chain's coffin and give the tokens zero value.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Unlike Ethereum, the two bitcoin chains competing for hashpower is as unstable as nitroglycerin.

The only reason we have had two chains for over two weeks, is because some miners are willing to burn a lot of money to create a future for the vision behind Bitcoin Cash. And the emergency difficulty adjustment (EDA) has helped in this process whithout fucking up the price too much.

The heaviest load for the charity miners was the first blocks, and it has become easier and cheaper to mine Bitcoin Cash as the EDA has kicked in a few times. Price did also find a floor in this period.

A floor to build a mega rocket launching ramp on top off.

To the satellite moon! ┗(°0°)┛
 
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awemany

Well-Known Member
Aug 19, 2015
1,387
5,054
@Norway:
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Unlike Ethereum, the two bitcoin chains competing for hashpower is as unstable as nitroglycerin.
But the huge amount of ignorance and stupidity is the clay that makes the nitroglycerin stable.
And the current happy feeling of a rising price is the padded wooden crate around the dynamite sticks.

IOW: It is not just a minor explosion, the stuff is being produced and stacked and stacked and stacked, since the whole shenanigans around blocksize began.

I think the wheat will separate from the chaff when we get into a bear market. That will hit Bitcoin from multiple angles and finally light the fuse on this.

Maybe Bitcoin will survive this and finally break free, but I do not at all think that this is a given.

I think that if you are TPTB, you'd orchestrate what is going on right now, but you keep (or make) the prices of the two coins similar and then crash the whole thing all at once.

Divide and conquer. It does seem to have become a little bit more difficult with Bitcoin, but it doesn't at all appear impossible any longer.

All you need is an army of stupid miners.
 

torusJKL

Active Member
Nov 30, 2016
497
1,156
We shall soon see if Satoshi was right and mines are profit driven or if he was wrong and miners are loyal (to Core and/or the NY agreement) and would be willing to profit less.
[doublepost=1503091021][/doublepost]It looks like BitClub has more hashrate on BCC now (or they were lucky) and according to ViaBTCs homepage they have more than doubeled their hashrate from what it was this morning.
 

sickpig

Active Member
Aug 28, 2015
926
2,541
follow up from my prev post.

Currently BCH miner could potentially collect (7.12 / 6.48 =) 1.10x the reward (in USD) that a BTC miner could collect.

And we don't even have adjusted the diff.