Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[Norway]

I just finished a trade where I bought even more Bitcoin Cash at an even better rate. I have now done deals like this with the only 2 hardcore smallblockers I know in Norway. I'm taking their money because they are thriving in North Corea!

I also finished an article while I was doing this trade. Literally. Writing/editing - negotiating - back to editing - more negotiations etc.

The article is called "Trader’s Guide to Bitcoin Cash & Bitcoin Segwit".

I've been fascinated by the diff adjustments on both chains the last days. I can't stop thinking about it because I'm trading this chain split actively.

I launced the idea of a "Diff Adjust Holiday" a short while ago. Just because I wanted to add new strategic tools to the miners that are currently mining at a loss compared to mining Bitcoin Segwit.

I'm not a day trader. I know the limitations of a daytrader without inside info. He is getting rekt by those with inside info. I'm a long term trader with long term inside info. Sometimes we trade. And I trade this split.

My crypto currency trading history in a nutshell:

Before 2017: Buy bitcoin, hodl, buy more bitcoin, keep hodling. Hodlor from GoT is my guide.
February 2017: OMG, the alts are comming. Can bitcoin die? Hedged a small fraction in the altcoins offered by Jaxx.
Bitmain's blog about UAHF: Ah, the shit is back on track, Sodl all alts and went full (retard) bitcoin.Made some money actually, but that was pure luck.
Pre split: Bought future Bitcoin Cash from smallblocker.
Post split (now): Bought moar Bitcoin Cash from another smallblocker.

Anyways, here is my article. Please spread it on Reddit, Slack and Twitter if you like it. And please give me feedback if I wrote something stupid:
https://medium.com/@shludvigsen/traders-guide-to-bitcoin-cash-bitcoin-segwit-819933694b34
[doublepost=1501971691][/doublepost]Skimmers, just spread the link just above if you don't hate it!

 

[throwaway]

A little correction: it's 2016 blocks, not 2048.

 

[Norway]

Thanks @throwaway ! I verified your correction and corrected it.
I considered to give the article a peer review before I published it, but then I thought "What the heck, I'll just correct/edit it on the fly as sensible and verifiable critics respond with facts."

This is not how academic work is published, and it's made possible because my ego is small in this particular matter. I'm not trying to carve the text into stone and make it my legacy.

It's very easy for me to admit mistakes. The bar is low. I think this is a much quicker and more efficient way to achive a (semi?) high quality paper.

I bet @Peter R would find this aproach interesting, as it is very different to what he is used to at some university while he has an open mind at the same time.

Bring on more mistakes in the "paper"!

 

[adamstgbit]

is the forum being DDOS'd? having trouble loading for the last day or so.

it would not surprise me . . . dangerous ideas fester here . . .

i have trouble too, since like yesterday

 

[Bagatell]

Firefox is telling me - https://support.mozilla.org/en-US/kb/mixed-content-blocking-firefox?redirectlocale=en-US&as=u&redirectslug=how-does-content-isnt-secure-affect-my-safety&utm_source=inproduct - something to do with alerts?

 

[Zarathustra]

@Norway

BitClub is mining Bitcoin Cash now. What do you think about that?
You have been right when you said that they will signal EC. They did it for some time but then switched back. They have also been accused of launching a malleability attack in March. Are they still listening to Hilliard? Is it a good or an evil pool? A BitClub or a ShitClub?

 

[Norway]

@Zarathustra

I don't know what's happening in BitClub. When they started signaling EC, I just knew because I heard a rumour. I think we should expect "hostile mining" on Bitcoin Cash, but it's a very weak and expensive attack. It will only delay the diff adjust.

 

[lunar]

Another brilliant, observation rich, article from Konrad. He remains my favourite Bitcoin economist. I wish more, would write like this. Where have all the independent analysts gone?

http://www.konradsgraf.com/blog1/2017/8/5/descendants-with-modifications-bitcoins-new-and-possibly-beneficial-evolutionary-test

"Which chain is the “truer” successor is, in principle, not especially important in direct analytical terms. It might be useful as sociological research into the study of the development and spread of beliefs, or somewhat more useful than that as a source of hints for investors as to likely relative popularity based on belief frequencies in relevant user populations (meme frequency).

Nevertheless, BCC’s critics have taken to consistently labeling it an altcoin (which it is not), and moreover asserting that it is impossibly distant from being any true and proper successor of the one real bitcoin, which they believe the BTC chain unquestionably is. In this context, it should at least be noted in counterpoint that from a strictly content standpoint—rather than a popularity standpoint—BCC is arguably a nearer successor to 2009–2015-6 BTC than a post-SegWit BTC."

 

[Bagatell]

@lunar so how long has he been lurking here?

 

[79b79aa8]

re: @Norway's Trader’s Guide to Bitcoin Cash & Bitcoin Segwit

could you explain how you arrive a the 2-3 month estimate in the following claim?

"Some people speculate that hostile miners are mining BC to keep the hashrate above 8% to prevent the EDA to kick in. An attack like this, however, will only postpone the DA to 2–3 months maximum."

 

[majamalu]

Am I the only one that is not able to "like" here.

 

[lunar]

With a shout out for @Norway

Another great vlog from today @ryanXcharles
Bitcoin: The Rothbard-Turing-Merkle Machine

​

[doublepost=1502074734][/doublepost]@majamalu forum has been on the fritz for me, for days. Sure @Bloomie is aware.

 

[Bloomie]

Guys, please report all forum issues to the Meta forum. @majamalu could you try a different browser?

 

[Norway]

re: @Norway's Trader’s Guide to Bitcoin Cash & Bitcoin Segwit

could you explain how you arrive a the 2-3 month estimate in the following claim?

"Some people speculate that hostile miners are mining BC to keep the hashrate above 8% to prevent the EDA to kick in. An attack like this, however, will only postpone the DA to 2–3 months maximum."

The max time to next regular difficulty adjustment is based on this:
A hostile miner could in theory keep the hashpower just above 12 blocks per day, preventing the emergency difficulty adjustment from kicking in. We are now approximately 1000 blocks from next adjustment or 1000/12 = 83 days. But it doesn't look like this is happening now. Bitcoin Cash is shooting out 3-4 tiny blocks per hour at the moment.

@lunar Awesome! I hate the name "vlog", but I watch all the vlogs comming from Ryan now.

 

[AdrianX]

Am I the only one that is not able to "like" here.

@Bloomie has there been a DDoS I haven't been able to like or load more than one page every once in a while.

 

[torusJKL]

This would continue until the next real difficulty increase, where difficulty would go "limit up" (4X increase in difficulty), making it unprofitable to mine BCC once again (leaving only the miners playing the longer game mining). The short-term profit-maximizing miners would then switch back to BTC.

for the oscillation to happen Bitcoin needs to keep its value during the time the miners are mining BCC.
The switch of miners could be a signal to the market to move value from BTC to BCC.
In this case it could be that BTC will never be profitable anymore to mine and the chain dies or will need months to reach the difficulty adjustment.

I guess in the case everyone switches to BCC, Core will HF with a new POW and try to retain the name of the real Bitcoin. Who knows what there justification will be at that point, maybe the name of the github account.

 

[Inca]

Which of the dragon's den luminaries are we talking about? Surely not the Ginger Wizard?

 

[Norway]

@majamalu Thanks for translating my article to spanish.

 

[majamalu]

Thank you for writing it!

Here's the link, in case anyone wants to check it out: http://elbitcoin.org/bitcoin-cash-bitcoin-segwit-guia-para-el-inversor/

(Intro is mine).

 

[Norway]

Which of the dragon's den luminaries are we talking about? Surely not the Ginger Wizard?

Are you talking about G-Wiz? He even got his own car brand: