Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[sickpig]

If I heard correctly, the Milan conference organizers haven't approved @theZerg 's proposed talk ?

really?

any pointers?

 

[freetrader]

@sickpig: (of course, that may still change - who knows...)

 

[cliff]

-------------------------------------
Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP!
-------------------------------------
BTC | XAU (spot) | COMEX CG1
$607.78| $1307.91 | $1312
-------------------------------------
BTCswap(BFX) | BTCswap(Polo)
0.0434 % | 0.00918 %
-------------------------------------
HashRate: 1.78 EH/s [hashrate still growing]
MarketCap: $9,649,140,507
-------------------------------------
GBTC | SPDR Gold Trust ETF
$87.5 | $124.83
-------------------------------------
10YR Treas| Copper | Crude (WTI)
1.70% | $215.25/lb | $42.88/barrel
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------

• Got in to digging on the Cicada 3301 puzzle last night.
  • Lots of fun thoughts:
    • Cicadas are interesting creatures, they’ve even been used as money and art.
    • Compare Tale of Genjix with This (similarity in spellings, nothing Sirius - ).
  • What if Satoshi (whether person or crew) is also behind Cicada? That would be wild, but there’s something satisfying about it.
    • Craig said he’s been Ghost in the Shell for a while (Twitter account deleted, so I can’t find the exact quote I'm thinking of). It sorta makes sense if you think about Cicadas. Also here.
    • Several Cicada 3301 solvers run an octal function of 3301 and get a decimal of 1729, thinking that’s significant. I guess that’s interesting. But, what if you flip it around? Enter “3301” in the decimal position here and take the hexadecimal - you get “CE5.” Now, google “CE5.”
    • The second entry is interesting - you get: http://www.siriusdisclosure.com/ce-5-initiative/
      • See also this.
    • The first entry is also interesting - you get http://new.cseti.org/ce5initiative.html
    • 
  • Fun stuff. If you dig far enough, you can make it to CERN researchers and the ATLAS experiment. From there, you can think about energy, super computing, bitcoin, etc. Who knows where this goes, maybe no where but its a fun dig.
  • Happy Friday. *

EDIT - the Octal of 3301 (3301 entered into decimal box here) is 6345. A search of "6345" yields a code associated with the UN Directories for Electronic Data Interchange For Administration, Commerce and Transport. "6345" is the code for "Currency".


*This post is for entertainment only.

 

[theZerg]

Looks like transaction pressure is actually decreasing in the last month or so -- shown both in block sizes and transaction fees. This is worrisome; Bitcoin hasn't jumped the chasm... we need to grow or die.

https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/average-block-size
https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/transaction-fees-per-kb

I was hoping people were doing more with fewer TX but that does not seem to be the case... volume is also going down:

https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/outputs-volume?range=180d
https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/average-volume-per-transaction?range=180d

I linked to 180d here because a big spike earlier makes it hard to see the recent trend.

 

[Bagatell]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/an-interview-with-viabtc-the-new-bitcoin-mining-pool-on-the-blockchain-1474038675

“We need some mechanism to dynamically adjust the block size limit. Hence, in my view, Bitcoin Unlimited’s protocol is more appropriate at the current stage.”

 

[cliff]

I wish I could make this stuff up:

http://t2judgment.wixsite.com/orionsbeltstars (note the btc address at bottom)
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/alt.religion.mormon/oAkGXDDeTm8

T2 Judgment = the "Terminator"

 

[freetrader]

#riskyclicks

/u/Fan77Dango talks to himself most of the time. Is there a method to his madness?

 

[cliff]

@freetrader - Possibly, dunno. Sorta too early to judge, IMHO. I'm just aggregating weirdness today.

 

[freetrader]

Here's some more weirdness for you then:

Someone Is Learning How to Take Down the Internet

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2016/09/someone_is_lear.html

Archive: http://archive.is/Xd7Y8

Speaking of weirdness, I wish @cypherdoc would de-lurk and give us a piece of his mind.

 

[cliff]

@freetrader - hopefully a big piece.

 

[Justus Ranvier]

I doubt Cypherdoc is coming back, but anything's possible.

 

[Zarathustra]

Looks like transaction pressure is actually decreasing in the last month or so -- shown both in block sizes and transaction fees. This is worrisome; Bitcoin hasn't jumped the chasm... we need to grow or die.

https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/average-block-size
https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/transaction-fees-per-kb

I was hoping people were doing more with fewer TX but that does not seem to be the case... volume is also going down:

https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/outputs-volume?range=180d
https://www.kaiko.com/statistics/average-volume-per-transaction?range=180d

I linked to 180d here because a big spike earlier makes it hard to see the recent trend.

Yes, did anyone with half a brain expect that the demand will increase until the fees are 10 dollars/tx?
That's what has been promised to Jihan and the other children in Hongkong. How green and gullible do you have to be to believe such socionomic madness?
[doublepost=1474063582,1474062848][/doublepost]"I doubt Cypherdoc is coming back, but anything's possible"

No no, Justus. Only one thing is possible. There is only one (possible) history course. Caused effects are not possibilities. Either he'll be back or not. You just don't know which one it will be. The future will show you what has been possible in the past.

 

[cliff]

Hard to argue with @Zarathustra


I was asleep—
From a deep dream I woke and swear:—
The world is deep,
Deeper than day had been aware.
Deep is its woe—
Joy—deeper yet than agony:
Woe implores: Go!
But all joy wants eternity—
Wants deep, wants deep eternity.

 

[adamstgbit]

@adamstgbit

Welcome to the wonderful world of emergence which is high-level order arising from simple rules observed or inherent in low-level discrete components or entities which are connected in some fashion. This is a fundamental property of nature seen in both organic and inorganic systems.

The case we are interested in here is emergent consensus arising from special software, BUIP001, used by Bitcoin Unlimited full-nodes, which are discrete components of a connected substrate (the Bitcoin network).

For context we can assume that all full-nodes together are a representative subset of the economic majority, and that mining nodes have on average more capacity than non-mining nodes.

All BU nodes (whether mining or non-mining) have an excessive block size and acceptance depth settings which can be manually set by users. The default values are EB=16MB and AD=4. Actual values can be seen on bitnodes. This means that when an excessive block is received, say 17MB, then all the nodes with a lower EB (present majority) will delay acceptance of the large block, waiting until a miner produces a smaller one and that fork extends by AD gaining most PoW. If another is quickly produced, say 2.7MB, then the smaller block is preferred by those nodes with the EB<17MB. If we have a scenario where most of the miners are mining <17MB then the large block will be orphaned by the network and the full nodes will converge to the chain-tip with the smaller block. BU nodes always track the chain-tip with the most PoW and will always switch to it when their AD is reached. Equilibrium results where the prevailing block limit is optimum for all full nodes in the network via top-down causality of the adaptive information type.

Another explanation is here on BU's home page.

In the less likely and extreme scenario where the majority of the miners decide to mine blocks larger than the majority of non-mining EB sizes then economic stresses will result and the BTC price will fall until the miners stop producing oversize blocks, or node owners of non-mining nodes will spend money to upgrade to handle larger blocks. Equilibrium will re-assert.

Emergence is lacking today because critical mass has not been achieved. If most Core, Classic, XT and other nodes used BUIP001 then the network would converge holistically to an optimum block limit which would then change only slowly as some node owners upgrade and set their EBs higher, while other node owners decide that blocks are too big and set their EBs lower.

All other block limiting solutions are sub-optimal because they are either centrally planned (e.g. the 1MB, BIP101, BIP109), or miner-only controlled (BIP100, BitPay Adaptive, "no limit").

so BU nodes are made to express their block size limit preference?

this is gr8!

but there's a big problem with this.... nodes are cheap like dirt, a handful of poeple can throw up 1000's of nodes totally throwing off "emergence consensus ".

so we cannot rely on nodes to provide info about emergence consensus ( **emergence consensus** i am using that word right? LOL )

we must count coins. 1 satoshi 1 vote

i read some really funky ideas about this now and then. people want to use bitcoin days destroyed for some reason i dont understand why they come up with such complex schemes!?

in my mind its so simple

poeple sign msgs which includes their voting info, the number of satoshi currently sitting in the signing address = the number of votes that signed msg gets assigned, you simply recompute the number of coins sitting in each signing address every single time you want to tally the votes. wtf is wrong with that?
[doublepost=1474071426,1474070280][/doublepost]I think i might have missed the point

for the network of nodes to accept 2MB block all the nodes ( or at least some of them ) must signal their willingness / readyness to accept such a block size limit.( or any future BIP)

sure, what i'm saying is this isn't very useful info, especially when a BIP is controversial. remember when Classic nodes started popping up on amazon servers like crazy?!
that was silly!
no one believed that "the network" was 50% classic nodes, they knew they were "fake nodes". lots of poeple wasted time and money running classic nodes....

now imagine 50% of the F'ing BTC was voting for classic, poeple wouldn't ignore that...
[doublepost=1474071751][/doublepost]TL; RD;

node count is a bullshit stat when push comes to shove.
we need 1 coin 1 vote to measure the "will of the network"

 

[adamstgbit]

rant, continued.

all add that what nodes want is MUCH less important than what the users want.

if 80% of the fucking nodes need to die to satisfy the will of the user base ( aka economic marjory ) then let them die FFS.

IMO nodes being easily accessible to anyone isn't what makes bitcoin decentralized...

what makes bitcoin decentralized is the idea that i can store money and no central authority can have any kind of control over that money.

I am OK with the idea that a decentralized collection of 100's of nodes all with there own ideas and preferences make the rules. ( these 100's of nodes are under lots of pressure from the user base to behave in a very specific way.... )

1000's of nodes is NOT NECESSARY or even desirable, all you really want is 100's of nodes each controlled by separate entities,

imagine for a moment bitcoin worked like this and 1 sahoti 1 vote was always polled to determine the "will of the users"

in that case you could have 10 non-minning-nodes and 5 minning nodes and bitcoin would be DECENTRALIZED!
how?
well fuck because trillions of satoshis dictate who gets to run those nodes and with what software...

the second a minning node or non-minning node would do anything but what the users agreed they would there would be a massive revolt from the user base. they would probably just all insist do kill the fucker responsible for the misbehaving node.

its like the difference between a king and an elected official.

in land bitcoin today there is a "king" he's called Core. he was self elected and utilizing his knights of the round table ( aka chinese miners ) is trying to maintain absolute control over bitcoin.

THAT is MUCH more dangerous than the idea of losing 1000's of STUPID nodes running WHATEVER software happens to be the first thing they downloaded.

 

[freetrader]

In case anyone might be affected:

https://www.troyhunt.com/someone-just-lost-324k-payment-records-complete-with-cvvs/

 

[Richy_T]

he's giving lip service to ending grudges,

Yeah. "Just bend the knee and you can be welcomed back into the fold". That and the insinuation that those opposing core are not experts themselves (and Core are).

 

[theZerg]

@adamstgbit: Instead of looking at where the coins currently are, allow people to vote by signing the PRIOR address of the coins (and maybe the txn that moves them must contain something). That way you can keep your coins an an address whose public key has not been exposed but still vote.

Or the txn itself could somehow vote in OP_RETURN...

 

[majamalu]

Twitter Sued by Investor for Failing to Deliver on User Growth

Sooner or later, people that invested in Blockstream will start asking tough questions...

 

[Justus Ranvier]

Or they won't...