Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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this is good news. Mrs. Watanabe is coming:

CEO of major exchange Quoine, Mike Kayamori, said last month that he expected Japanese trading volumes to soon outstrip that of Chinese exchanges. He added that Japanese investment culture also angled more towards currency trading than shares or funds, something he attributed to an unusual interest in money itself.

https://news.bitcoin.com/japan-new-bitcoin-trading-superpower/
 

AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
2,097
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bitco.in
This only works if the energy is transportable which is the problem everywhere.
There aren't enough high power wires to transport energy from regions with a lot of wind energy to others. And Bitcoin doesn't change that
To @theZerg 's point commodity energy is not transportable and subject to convenience costs but the economic energy (btc) the source of commodity energy is a global commodity and very eazy to transmit anywhere.

The risk is you have no market for the commodity energy in the Tibetan mountains should the value of btc drop below the cost of production in that location.

Otherwise you can transport your production anywhere. Even use Surplus economic energy to create commodity energy in other locations and markets.
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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perhaps another way to frame this is that Chinese miners (or any miner mining excess electrical power in remote regions) are creating and disseminating (overseas) the "Power" of Bitcoin. that power being the one and only true immutable ledger representing financial truth in the world today.
[doublepost=1468428560][/doublepost]you gotta love the waffling. that's what drives FOMO and eventual Bitcoin adoption:

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/07/13/russian-political-party-proposes-legalize-bitcoin-property-rights/
 
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cypherdoc

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big time trouble for the DAO as predicted:

The DAO Crisis: Or How Vigilantism and Blockchain Democracy Became the Best Hope for Burned Investors

This group of coders, whose identities are largely unknown as a matter of security, has prepared a two-prong maneuver – or white-hat attack – against the Dark DAO exploiters.

as a matter of security? more like trying to stay out of even more trouble if things go wrong. and who's to say they aren't just another group of black hats?

At some point in time, the miners that verify transactions on the ethereum blockchain will get involved by either endorsing, or not endorsing the proposed changes.

this is obviously going to create a problem for parent Ethereum.

However, there’s already indications that at least the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is responsible for overseeing the nation's securities laws, is paying attention.

i don't think there's any question the SEC will eventually get involved. they're simply gathering info at this point.

In interview with CoinDesk, Karapetsas explained that some of the Robin Hood group’s plans are being kept secret to avoid sharing too much of their strategy.

facepalm.

Sirer told CoinDesk that because people who vote "no" on any proposal temporarily lose access to their funds they are dis-incentivized to vote at all. The result is that the perception of support for the Robin Hood effort may not accurately reflect an actual consensus.

this is really bad. lose access to funds if vote "no"?

"The Slock.it folks will be sued no matter what but they want to follow the path with least legal responsibility."-Gun Sirer

this is probably true. i'd also warn folks that Gun Sirer is an attention whore who desperately wants to be regarded as a Bitcoin Expert.

http://www.coindesk.com/author-daos-original-code-minimize-regulatory-backlash/
 

sickpig

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Aug 28, 2015
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@Jihan, all

I'm more and more convinced that SegWit at the current stage of development is not ready to be deployed. I think that another 6 to 12 months are needed to shake out all the current and future issues.

A little recap courtesy of Peter Todd and other core devs:

- SegWit in the current form does not solve O(n^2) signature hashing problem

- current implementation is vulnerable to mempool DoS attack from malleated transactions

- plus various problems described here https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/8279#issuecomment-231106619

what's worrying me the most is that this are open problems and there're no clear solutions already in place.
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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[doublepost=1468450662,1468449601][/doublepost]
Haven't read this yet, but I'm sure many here will want to. Looks like its going to be a winner.

Evening planned. (y) Thanks @DanielKrawisz

It's Not About the Technology, It's About the Money
Daniel Krawisz http://nakamotoinstitute.org


July 13, 2016
@DanielKrawisz i like this part:

Competing Currencies
I'm not against competing currencies in the sense of thinking people should be physically prevented from creating them. I am against competing currencies in the sense that I think currency competition is inherently monopolistic and that it is extremely dishonest or stupid to promote a new currency as an investment without taking this reality into account. So I am against competing currencies in the sense that someone who creates a new currency had better be able to present a case that his idea is capable of replacing the current system, and should be treated as a con artist otherwise.
[doublepost=1468450843][/doublepost]@VeritasSapere

Many people get fooled upon first entering Bitcoin because they think diversification is important. The problem with diversification is that it is possible to create an infinite amount of bullshit at no cost, and if you diversify into that you lose everything. Diversification only makes sense among investments which are not bullshit.
[doublepost=1468451010][/doublepost]But what about something more elaborate? Let’s pretend for a moment that Ethereumactually worked and was actually something that competed with Bitcoin on some level. Do its smart contracts give it a serious advantage over Bitcoin? I don’t see how Ethereum’s smart contract system would tend to bring in opportunities to unload ethers which are superior to the opportunities provided by Bitcoin. No matter how cool smart contracts sound, they make Ethereum just another appcoin, and as with other appcoins, people will reduce the risk of holding them by not holding them, or holding them for as short a time as possible. This will drive the price down until they are useless in trade.
 

priestc

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Nov 19, 2015
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currency competition is inherently monopolistic
I don't know that I agree with this. If you can seemlessly move between currencies, then does it really matter than there are two different currencies? Thanks to shapeshift and other services, I can pay bitcoin with litecoin and vise versa. Imagine if the Euro bill had a feature where you could press a button on the bill and it magically turns into a dollar bill. Then another button converts that dollar bill back to the same amount in Euro. Essentially fast and easy exchange egates the need for "currency monopoly".
 
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cypherdoc

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except that if history serves us correctly, gold was once the universal global money. and then evolved to being a settlement currency btwn nations. and then was eventually depegged completely in 1971 by Nixon. if it happened once, it can happen again.
[doublepost=1468452159][/doublepost]the only reason fiat supplanted gold was b/c it is faster, lighter, and more portable. but then it can be printed ad infinitum. even then, the dollar is the world's reserve currency. to this day, nations need to settle up in dollars.
[doublepost=1468452293][/doublepost]we even see the phenonomen of dollarization taking place today. i posted a link to an article that demonstrates countries like Ecuador already having dollarized. the article then went on to recommend dollarization as Venezuela's solution to rampant inflation.
 
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cypherdoc

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must read 3 part series from Konrad Graf. he totally gets it and refutes Matonis's analogizing fear btwn a blocksize limit increase and a coin issuance increase (which nobody's even suggested). this guys work does NOT get enough attention:

https://konrad-graf.squarespace.com/blog1/2016/7/8/block-size-political-economy-follow-up-1-software-choice-market-differentiation-and-term-selection

https://konrad-graf.squarespace.com/blog1/2016/7/8/block-size-political-economy-follow-up-2-market-intervention-through-voluntary-community-rules

https://konrad-graf.squarespace.com/blog1/2016/7/8/block-size-political-economy-follow-up-3-differentiation-from-the-21-million-coin-production-schedule
[doublepost=1468454621][/doublepost]this original interview is a must read as well:

Konrad S. Graf: Bitcoin Block Size Political Economy

https://news.bitcoin.com/konrad-graf-bitcoin-block-size-economy/
 
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remile

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Jul 13, 2016
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I don't know that I agree with this. If you can seemlessly move between currencies, then does it really matter than there are two different currencies?
Smartphone apps allow for the seamless conversion between meters and yards, pounds and kilograms, joules and horsepower, etc.

Would you consider it more likely that the reduced cost of converting between measurement units will cause the proliferation of new incompatible measurement standards, or that the Imperial system will be abandoned as the market finishes converging on SI as a universal standard?

Keep in mind that no matter how low you reduce conversion friction it will never be better than zero friction.
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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>Would you consider it more likely that the reduced cost of converting between measurement units will cause the proliferation of new incompatible measurement standards, or that the Imperial system will be abandoned as the market finishes converging on SI as a universal standard?

depends on whether or not you're looking to scam a bunch of diversifying investors :/
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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That doesn't sound good
@Jihan, all

I'm more and more convinced that SegWit at the current stage of development is not ready to be deployed. I think that another 6 to 12 months are needed to shake out all the current and future issues.

A little recap courtesy of Peter Todd and other core devs:

- SegWit in the current form does not solve O(n^2) signature hashing problem

- current implementation is vulnerable to mempool DoS attack from malleated transactions

- plus various problems described here https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/8279#issuecomment-231106619

what's worrying me the most is that this are open problems and there're no clear solutions already in place.
 
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priestc

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Nov 19, 2015
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Smartphone apps allow for the seamless conversion between meters and yards, pounds and kilograms, joules and horsepower, etc.

Would you consider it more likely that the reduced cost of converting between measurement units will cause the proliferation of new incompatible measurement standards, or that the Imperial system will be abandoned as the market finishes converging on SI as a universal standard?

Keep in mind that no matter how low you reduce conversion friction it will never be better than zero friction.
Its not fair to compare systems of measurement with currencies. Ultimately which blockchain your payment is using is an implementation detail. Does it matter if a gold coin is minted by the US mint or the Australian mint? At the end of the day, gold is gold, and a blockchain is a blockchain.

The only reason why Euros are not supported in the US is because there is no way to exchange them for currency that is accepted (dollars) that is easy and convenient. If there were an easy way to convert euros to dollars, there would be no reason why shops in the USA wouldn't accept Euros. Nobody denies Euros don't have value, its just the value is not useful because of circumstances. If you remove those circumstances, the value from a Euro is just as good as value from a dollar.

As far as friction is concerned, "on-chain" exchanges like shapeshift could not be any frictionless. If Bitpay were to nativly support shapeshift.io, the only added friction is to select which currency you wish to pay with from a dropdown. Heck, a really well written wallet could automatically choose the currency to pay with based on the balances that wallet currently holds. Absolutely zero added friction.
 

cliff

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Dec 15, 2015
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Krawisz's article is fine, i guess. I'm not exactly sure what the thesis and/or goal is - it reads like one person's theory of Bitcoin; a theory which appears to be based on a few too many generous assertions of fact and history. In general, I think the article oversimplifies, under-defines, and over assumes too much.
---
As an example, here's a paragraph that I'm still grappling with:

The foundational fallacy about money is to explain in physical terms what is really a sociological phenomenon. Money is about macroeconomics even if we're talking about a small currency like Bitcoin. Gold is not valuable because it is durable, fungible, portable, and scarce; it is valuable because of a beneficial and self-sustaining tradition in which it has a special place. The physical properties of gold make such a tradition possible, but they do not determine that it will arise; other goods with similar properties may also become the traditionally established good. Bitcoin is the same way, of course. It could not run without the technology behind it, but its value is what makes it important. People who think "blockchain technology" is important are making the same kind of mistake as the people who think gold has intrinsic value.
1_I don't think money is about macroeconomics. DK needs to develop this point otherwise, I think he's just asserting an important foundational premises without empirical support for the same (in fact, there were no citations to studies or other objective and reliable data in this article). Maybe he meant to say microeconomics - that type of claim seems easier to prove based on the literature I've read (not including the hyperlinked material).

2_Similarly, I believe the first two sentences of this paragraph can be read as suggesting that macroeconomics is a type of sociological phenomenon. I'm not sure this is true. Regardless, these two sentences strike me a both puzzling and bold. Consequently, the statements absolutely need supporting citations along with some definitions, application, and analysis. From there, DK would be better positioned to argue x, y, z (hard to tell whether this paper is supposed to be a history or an advocacy of some point - a thesis statement would help).

3_I think DK may be confusing/overlooking the cause and effect here: "Gold is not valuable because it is durable, fungible, portable, and scarce; it is valuable because of a beneficial and self-sustaining tradition in which it has a special place. " Seems to me that those traditions exist only because gold is valued for a certain unique combination of qualities and properties.[1]
----
Here's a second example:

" And if money is a shared hallucination, then you can’t replicate Bitcoin’s value by replicating the technology. You would have to also replicate the hallucination, which you can’t. You’ll have two blockchains, but only one of them has a shared hallucination. This makes one of them valuable, the other worthless."​

I don't get this syllogism. The argument seems to be: bitcoin is money --> money is a shared hallucination --> therefore, bitcoin's as money's shared hallucination can't be replicated by replicating the technology b/c two valuable bitcoin blockchains is an impossibility.

What?

1_Argument needs a definition of "value." More on this in number 3 below.

2_I'm pretty sure multiple shared hallucinations can exist in this world now. Case and point: there are many monies in this world now.

3_Likewise, I think its theoretically possible to have two or more valuable Bitcoins in this world b/c its theoretically possible for there to be two or distinct and separate groups hallucinating about two or more different Bitcoins. There is not a person in this world that has the authority to declare that one such Bitcoin is Bitcoin and the other(s) is/are not. Seriously, who has the mandate to control Bitcoin hallucinations (shared or otherwise) world wide?

For example, Slap the name Bitcoin across the front of Dogecoin and there you go (this is actually doable, albeit not likely and not w/o difficulty). How could such a renaming be stopped short of sabotage? Who has standing to bring a case to stop a majority of dogecoiners from changing Dogecoin's name (keeping the dogecoin blockchain, just renaming) to Bitcoin? Nobody, probably - not if bitcoin is actually a distributed, open source protocol with no central authority. I'm pretty certain that both of these Bitcoins (o.g., bitcoin and doge-bitcoin) would have some value somewhere - various smatterings of people hallucinate about lots of different shit[coins] now, and in different combinations. The new bitcoin would have an instant market (and thus value) w/ all kinds of pockets of folks ranging from scammers to the chronically butthurt.

In short, I don't see why another Bitcoin - whether from a fork, shitcoin name change, or new coin launch - can't simultaneously exist with the original bitcoin. This possibility is not an auto impossibility just because its unlikely or because DK says so or wants it to be so. DK's point needs empirical support and a lot more analysis.

----

To be clear, the article is not bad, but I think it needs quite a bit of work if the goal is to be credibly authoritative on some point or perspective.

-----
[1] "To be useful as a general-purpose store of wealth and means of wealth transfer, a collectible had to be embedded in at least one institution with a closed-loop cycle, so that the cost of discovering and/or manufacturing the object was amortized over multiple transactions. Furthermore, a collectible was not just any kind of beautiful decorative object. It had to have certain functional properties, such as the security of being wearable on the person, compactness for hiding or burial, and unforgeable costliness. That costliness must have been verifiable by the recipient of the transfer -- using many of the same skills that collectors use to appraise collectibles today.The theories presented in this paper can be tested by looking for these characteristics (or the lack of them) in the "valuables" often exchanged in these cultures, by examining the economic gains from the cycles through which these valuables move, and by observing preferences for objects with these characteristics in a wide variety of cultures (including modern ones)." Szabo.
 
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Zarathustra

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the only reason fiat supplanted gold was b/c it is faster, lighter, and more portable. but then it can be printed ad infinitum. even then, the dollar is the world's reserve currency.
It cannot be printed. You need credit to create it. Power (energy/force/knowledge) = credit. You cannot print credit.
Whenever someone tries to print paper out of thin air (without credit), the paper doesn't represent additional money. It's just additional paper that reduces the value of the existing money.

https://bitco.in/forum/threads/gold-collapsing-bitcoin-up.16/page-489#post-17874
 
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sickpig

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"It's just additional paper that reduces the value of the existing money." -- @Zarathustra

You're right.

There's a key aspect to the devaluation process you just described, though. It's not instantaneous.

It takes a little bit of time before such process deploy its full effect, so the first ones who access the new printed money could use them before the loss of value (dilution) take place.
 
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freetrader

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The Hacker News thread linked to by this Reddit post is a delight to read, if you enjoy handwaving and argumentative vaping and some friendly fire. My fav' exchange so far:
Joseph Poon: Our implementation will not be biased towards Blockstream's hub if they ever make one. In fact, it's designed to work in a scale-free network topology. You can find it at https://github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd

nullc: What the heck Joseph, when you first started talking about lightning I spent considerable effort trying to convince you that "hub" was a bad model for thinking about or describing these things.
Blockstream has no intention of ever monetizing lightning on Bitcoin in any way (nor do I have any idea how we could do so); our interests for it in the case of Bitcoin are only to promote and expand the use of Bitcoin. (We also hope to use it to enable other kinds of asset systems).

Joseph Poon: Sorry Greg! I didn't mean it in the sense that Blockstream is planning for a hub at all! I was being sarcastic, but perhaps that wasn't conveyed properly in text. I thought the "if they ever make one" was sufficient, but it didn't properly convey the cultural apprehension towards those types of systems and could be seen as deeply disrespectful. We were definitely in agreement from the start that decentralization in the protocol layer was immensely important.
I thought it was obvious that the parent poster was being ridiculous, but should've ended the post with :^)
So, I'm going to look at my crystal ball and guess that Blockstream will not call their Lightning hub a hub. Perhaps rather a switch? I'll make some more suggestions: "transaction amplificator", "p2p-hyperconductor", "fintech fluxbox". I'm definitely getting ready for some entertaining semantic spoofing.
 
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