Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

Aren't those the guys trying to tell us what the ideal maximum blocksize is?

Anyway, happier than our self-declared rulers ...

 

[albin]

I wonder if Greg realized at the time that he was seated next to a dipshit?

 

[cypherdoc]

I think that once Adam realized he was a dipshit, he went quiet.

 

[cypherdoc]

wow, that's a Big Deal:

Bitcoin Surpasses Gold Trading in Brazil

This unprecedented and historic milestone confirms the strong growth the cryptocurrency has had in Brazil. According to website bitValor.com, June’s year-to-date bitcoin volume exceeds by 45% its entire trading volume in 2015, when local exchanges reported R$ 113 million worth of transactions. This year’s first semester is commensurate to the last three years combined.

https://fee.org/articles/bitcoin-surpasses-gold-trading-in-brazil/
[doublepost=1468371728][/doublepost]Such market data as well as recent developments indicate bitcoin is increasingly being perceived as a new safe-haven asset, to which investors can resort in times of crisis. In short, it is a genuine competitor to gold. The big difference is the thousand-year track record of gold against just seven years of bitcoin. But this is surely nothing time can’t solve.

 

[cypherdoc]

Interesting article here: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banking-caribbean-specialreport-idUSKCN0ZS29V

Here are some highlights:

Burdened by chronic back pain, Belize Prime Minister Dean Barrow avoids traveling abroad, his colleagues say. But in January, he flew to Washington and visited one government agency after another on a singular mission: reconnecting his country to the U.S. financial system.
...
As banks scrub their books of potentially risky businesses amid a tightening regulatory noose, major U.S. financial institutions have ended relationships with regional banks across the Caribbean in the last four years, Caribbean officials and bank executives say.

This so-called “de-risking” or “de-banking,” in which banks pull out of certain lines of business and even parts of the world, has intensified. Enhanced scrutiny on financial fraud and new regulations to stem money laundering and terror finance are all at play.
...
In February, Moody’s warned that Belize could face “significant disruptions” to tourism, trade and foreign investment after losing its banking links. About 60 percent of tourist spending in Belize involves credit card transactions settled by correspondent banks.

Historically, the Caribbean has cooperated closely with the United States, interdicting drug flows and hosting U.S. naval and air stations. Yet now some transactions that used to occur in U.S. dollars are being conducted in euros and Chinese yuan.

“What I don’t understand is why the United States at the government level, diplomatic level, at the political level would not see the harm that this is doing to its relationship with countries that are on its doorstep,” said Ambassador Sanders, of Antigua and Barbuda.​

I think I know of a technology that could help w/ this problem . . . .

this is the part that really sucks. "manufacture a show":

“Uncle Sam wants Belize to make a big arrest, and we have not been able to do that.”
[doublepost=1468374285,1468373334][/doublepost]it's everywhere you turn:

Ashvin Bachireddy, co-founder and general partner at Geodesic Capital, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm that backed bitcoin start-up 21 Inc., said after the Brexitvote that “Bitcoin is effectively becoming digital gold.”

https://news.bitcoin.com/negative-rates-bonds-consider-bitcoin/

 

[cypherdoc]

sound familiar? the lenders don't want to hold the loans. sounds legit:

Nonbank Lending Share Increases as Depositories Cut Back

Regulatory pressures have fanned the flames on commercial banks' retreat from mortgage lending, Kroll Bond Rating Agency noted in a report on the outlook of the mortgage industry.

"Nonbanks are now entirely dependent upon commercial banks to fund new mortgage originations, advance lines and other fully secured short-term liabilities," the analysts wrote. "As a result, as commercial banks withdraw from mortgage lending, the only way for nonbanks to make up the difference and maintain or even increase new loan origination volumes is for banks to increase warehouse lines."

Nonbank lenders' growing share of the residential lending market has other ramifications — including a potential boost to refinance activity, thanks in part to these lenders looser credit terms. This factor, when coupled with a drop in interest rates thanks to global issues, could help mortgage refinance volume to reach half of total originations.

Overall, Kroll predicted a bullish year for purchase loans as well. Additionally, the ratings agency said that looser credit standards and a rising proportion of repeat buyers should continue to buoy home prices. But lenders may not want to celebrate this news just yet, the agency cautioned.


http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/origination/nonbank-lending-share-increases-as-depositories-cut-back-1082006-1.html
[doublepost=1468376113][/doublepost]i actually watched this movie again the other night. what a classic. don't argue with your doctor:

[doublepost=1468376560,1468375832][/doublepost]Were you surprised no one went to jail?
I am shocked that executives at some of the worst lenders were not punished for what they did. But this is the nature of these things. The ones running the machine did not get punished after the dot-com bubble either — all those VCs and dot-com executives still live in their mansions lining the 280 corridor on the San Francisco peninsula. The little guy will pay for it — the small investor, the borrower. Which is why the little guy needs to be warned to be more diligent and to be more suspicious of society’s sanctioned suits offering free money. It will always be seductive, but that’s the devil that wants your soul.

this is exactly why Bitcoin needs the little guy. and one's all over the globe. they are the one's who need Bitcoin most and who will make it secure by not capitulating to the state. unlike Maxwell, who when push came to shove, chose Blockstream over Bitcoin.

bigger blocks with cheaper tx's w/o delays are what will bring the little guys in.

 

[cypherdoc]

5% of $8T gold market today would = $25396/BTC

 

[cliff]

@cypherdoc
RE: "5% of $8T gold market today would = $25396/BTC"

That would be wild, and it's probably not a sign of good economic times either.

I suspect that the most likely scenarios for big spikes in btc's value, at least in the short to medium terms, involve a global economic shit-storm. It's still going to suck out there . . . especially if you're hodler.

 

[sickpig]

@cypherdoc

From Burry's interview:

"What became clear to me is that food is the way to invest in water. That is, grow food in water-rich areas and transport it for sale in water-poor areas"

"A bottle of wine takes over 400 bottles of water to produce — the water embedded in food is what I found interesting."

now just substitute food with bitcoin and water with energy...

 

[8up]

@cypherdoc

Peak civilization = peak debt = peak wealth = peak government = peak protection money (tax) = peak psychotherapy.

As soon as the peak is exceeded, everything goes in the opposite direction.

I really hope this high quality thread goes down in history and will be studied by future generations.

Thanks to all the contributors!

 

[satoshis_sockpuppet]

now just substitute food with bitcoin and water with energy...

There is some truth to, it but the equation "Bitcoin = Transferable energy" is wrong. And for the wine and food example: There are more important things to producing wine than water.* Access to water is no problem almost anywhere in central Europe. And I would guess most parts of the world could have a sufficient water supply. I don't think he is right, that investing in food means investing in water, investing in land fits much better imho.

Back to Bitcoin: Some people think that pumping megawatts of (renewable) energy into mining Bitcoin magically solves problems of disposable energy in some places and scarcity in other places. Which is obviously not true. The goods (energy) still have to be shipped if they are needed somewhere. And Bitcoin can't transfer energy.

edit*: Ok, Water is about the single most important material for every living thing so water is still a basic requirement.

 

[cypherdoc]

@satoshis_sockpuppet

The goods (energy) still have to be shipped if they are needed somewhere. And Bitcoin can't transfer energy.

That's why I said the concept has to be paired with one where
the entire financial system gets reset away from one of skyscrapers, hundreds of thousands of employees, rampant corruption, and bailout. The net energy savings could be massive.

[doublepost=1468409110][/doublepost]dang. posting on this site with android is s terrible experience. I'm not Sure if its Swiftkey or what. any suggestions?

 

[theZerg]

The mechanics of the idea is that a solar wind or water sourced producer could choose to over deploy with the expectation that excess energy could be consumed by bitcoin mining. The result of this greater deployment is greater green energy production on marginal days.

Also a region could use its mined btc produced on excessive days to purchase energy on energy poor days. So instead of 2 tiers of use there are 3. 1 use locally. 2 sell to another region. 3. Mine bitcoin.

The final use would be to consume baseline capacity produced by sources that cannot vary output quickly based on changing demand. Currently coal plants mostly handle this requirement, causing all kinds of long term negative outcomes. By running your baseline higher you reduce the need for dirty production...

All of these ideas require the assumption that X MW of energy must go into mining worldwide to maintain the social good of a secure robust w9rldwide financial network -- and applies the observation that it doesn't matter where this mining takes place. As mining chips stabilize to follow silicon advancements and supply causes pricing to be marked at X above cost rather then Y below what the miner could mine, and as txn fees take over a greater proportion of mining reward, these energy ballast operations will become more common. Especially if energy storage tech improvement slows down.

 

[yrral86]

Coal is not that bad if you don't burn it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid_oxide_fuel_cell

 

[satoshis_sockpuppet]

Also a region could use its mined btc produced on excessive days to purchase energy on energy poor days. So instead of 2 tiers of use there are 3. 1 use locally. 2 sell to another region. 3. Mine bitcoin.

This only works if the energy is transportable which is the problem everywhere.
There aren't enough high power wires to transport energy from regions with a lot of wind energy to others. And Bitcoin doesn't change that.

They're starting to heat water for long distance-heating with electricity. Huge water boilers burning excess energy from wind turbines... Bizarre.
They should at least use mining rigs to heat the water

 

[awemany]

@cypherdoc:

That's why I said the concept has to be paired with one where
the entire financial system gets reset away from one of skyscrapers, hundreds of thousands of employees, rampant corruption, and bailout. The net energy savings could be massive.

Agreed. I think that's the key to Bitcoin being a net positive.

EDIT: Oh and, this quote from your linked article is haunting, because it is along the lines I have been thinking for a while now:

We don’t want Orwell’s world, but we don’t want Huxley’s world either.

 

[freetrader]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/did-citi-just-confiscate-1-billion-venezuela-gold

 

[cypherdoc]

That article is consistent with the article I posted yesterday about affiliate closures throughout the Caribbean especially Belize.

 

[sickpig]

all,

if you have time this is a must see "The Machine Payable Web by 21 Inc CEO, Balaji Srinivasan"


actually the presentation is good but you could skip it if you want to, the real deal is the Q&A section (start at ~ 34m ), especially the part where he speculates about the pros and cons of ethereum as a competitor of bitcoin (43m : 19s) .

 

[AdrianX]

Back to Bitcoin: Some people think that pumping megawatts of (renewable) energy into mining Bitcoin magically solves problems of disposable energy in some places and scarcity in other places. Which is obviously not true. The goods (energy) still have to be shipped if they are needed somewhere. And Bitcoin can't transfer energy.

While this is true energy is not practical to store and move. However the price of Bitcoin relative to inflation sets the maximum production cost. Meaning if the price of Bitcoin is high enough more people will try to mine it until competition prices out inefficient actors.

It's not the efficiency of mining hardware that determines the amount of energy consumed it's the value of Bitcoin relative to block reward that determines how much energy is consumed.

An extreme example is if the Bitcoin price went to $10,000 before this last halving, mining with inefficient Hardware like a GPU would be profitable. If it went up another order of magnitude people would be turning off their refrigerators and mining btc on their PC's as the demand for energy would increase.

That would be the case until risk takers solve the efficiency problem. And by solve the efficiency problem all they are doing is taking market share from less efficient players. They still consume the same energy less the cost spent on converting it.

So using very cheap energy in the Tibetan mountains to mind Bitcoin is one way to democratize the cost of global energy, it's making it a global market. It just so happens the the energy available to those in Frankfurt is better spent on other things as the market is willing to bid up the price superseding the utility one would get investing it in Bitcoin mining.