Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

albin

Active Member
Nov 8, 2015
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The brutal tragedy here is that consistently reaching 1 MB blocks should've been a great cause for celebration and a milestone in the progress of Bitcoin, but instead because of the two-bit power-hungry machinations of developers, hitting 1 MB has been re-imagined as a source of anxiety and dread.
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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From a simplistic perspective, we could assume that everyone with total fiat debts exceeding total fiat assets to be in favour of the jubilee:

total fiat owed by you > total cash on hand + total fiat owed to you (1)​

In a city like Vancouver where I'm from, I bet 80%+ of people with a mortgage are in this case. Ignoring the second-order effects on the economy for now, why would these people not be in favour of a jubilee?
Because their houses, which are valued in debt, would lose its value, and all their pension 'assets' (promises) would disappear as well. When debt disapears, the production capacity disappears as well, because the demand for products disappears.

The city of Rome had 1 million inhabitants, and after the collapse just 10'000.

"Essentially, the economy is an engine that transforms resources into waste." Ugo Bardi



http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/2011/07/22/entropy-peak-oil-and-stoic-philosophy-part-2

Tainter's law:



http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ch/2011/03/tainters-law-where-is-physics.html
 
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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OMG, that's too funny:


I still stands by my prediction that the price break up we are experiencing, since mid April, is occurring as a result of an anticipated failure of SW activation.

Additional pile on evidence is the slow adoption of CSV and the more recent totally fucked logic of core dev willingness to HF away from AsicBoost demonstrating a centrally planned, morally corrupt, duplicitous, and soon to be bankrupt Blockstream .
[doublepost=1463342501,1463341843][/doublepost]Couldn't resist:

 

Erdogan

Active Member
Aug 30, 2015
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Here is what I think the common man thinks about sound money.

They trust the governments, they trust the central banks to run the economy, they understand (believe) that there must be modest inflation, that exports count more than anything, and that the governments are the ones that create jobs and that jobs are crucial, (even subsidized jobs that destroy value), they believe regulation is necessary in all things. They are essentially statists, they believe in the religion of the state.

But they are also individuals, they want to find a comfortable place for themselves within the system. Everybody are desperate to be on top, that is to have economic means in reserve, effectively, they want to have savings.

At least half of the people (not only one in a million, as Adam Smith suggested for his time), understand that the inflation that is planned will halve their private savings in money every 30 years, therefore they want to hold something of real and lasting value. Not cars, because everybody knows that they wear out in 20 years, but houses. They have learned that this is smart from the previous generation. So they buy houses, as large as expensive as possible. They work hard, earn two breadwinner salaries, and hope to come out in a good position after a decade or so.

There are only money and houses. Financial investments are difficult, risky and taxed harder, and they also know that risky stuff like options are gambling, and gambling leads to ruin.

In short, they are long houses and short fiat (through a mortgage).

What they don't know, is that the speculation in houses that they are a part of, makes the houses also money, but bad money, so they do not see a coming house price bubble deflation. What they really need, is just a sufficient house and saving in money that does not inflate. Bitcoin is perfect, so is gold, they just don't know it. The knowledge will spread slowly, and for each year with appreciation in the bitcoin price in fiat, and even in bitcoin price in houses, some people will get the point. They will then reduce the house to something normal, and use bitcoin for saving.

The need is there, the knowledge is not there yet.
 
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Inca

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Aug 28, 2015
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@Erdogan : you obviously don't live in the UK where house prices are eye watering and divorced firmly from reality. The whole country is housing mad, though the own:rent ratio has been falling for years with easy money flowing into buy-to-let empires which only now the government is tackling (lots of members of parliaments own multiple homes).

Politically it is a difficult one. Everyone knows that expensive housing benefits no one except the banks, whilst shafting their own children. But politicians know that rising house prices make homeowners happy and more likely to vote for the incumbent government. And banks know that if they loosen borrowing requirements for consumers (increase the housing multiples to wages) that people will borrow more and push up the market. (Add to that ZIRP and it is a disaster in the making.)

People in the UK will never put saving an asset ahead of owning a big expensive mortgage and house.

That said I am bullish on bitcoin. :)
 

Peter R

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Aug 28, 2015
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Because their houses, which are valued in debt, would lose its value, and all their pension 'assets' (promises) would disappear as well. When debt disapears, the production capacity disappears as well, because the demand for products disappears.
Yes, that's a good point that I didn't consider. We'd have to take into account the expected loss (in real terms) of one's real assets too. Perhaps something like

if (fiat owed by you) - (fiat owed to you + cash) >
(value of non-fiat assets before jubilee) - (expected value of non-fiat assets after jubilee)​
then support jubilee.
But then I suppose we'd also have to take into account one's expected gain by front running the collapse of fiat's value (e.g., by buying bitcoin or buying real assets with debt that you expect to pay back in devalued currency).

So I dunno. I still think the people of the world would "push" for the collapse of fiat (effectively bringing about a biblical-style jubilee) if given the opportunity.
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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@Zarathustra

That graph confirms what I've always said where the real problem truly lies in the financial markets. Not stocks, not bonds, not real estate, not smart contracts, but Cash. And therein lies Bitcoins greatest potential utility to humanity; which will be expressed as a Moon.

Do you hear that all you small blockheads who follow this thread?
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
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@Zarathustra : would love to know where the data for that graph came from esp. the stocks and bonds. Tracing the links leads to a statement of "unknown sources".
I would love it too, but the chart seems accurate to me. Even if the so called 'survivorship bias' is not included: stocks and government debt will always perform better than metals (until the state/society collapses). Debt is growing with the interests and dividends, and real interest rates have been positive in the long run (where we are all dead ;)). Debt grows and grows and grows, and with it the economy. Interest (census/tax!) is the real driver of the economy, it enforces innovation (by organized violence). He can't be cited often enough:

Interest is the partition (cession) of forced or expected income (as measured in the state-owned monopoly to declare “legal tender”) or property (goods) by the party which will get this income or property (goods) with other parties. The more (existing) property is ceded by the state to the private sector or can be created as income after cession to the private sector (non-state sector) the longer the process called “creation of wealth” (recte: later income or property) can endure, because the more power-sustaining taxes can be imposed.

Nonetheless the breakdown of all property-systems is inevitably. This we actually can study watching the exploding indebtedness of “democratic” powers. The problem of state power vs. private economic activities is per definitionem unsolvable. Wealth creating inevitably sooner or later leads to wealth destruction. This explains “rise and fall” of any power- or state-based system throughout history.
(Dr. Paul C. Martin)

http://www.miprox.de/Wirtschaft_allgemein/Martin-Symp.pdf
 
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steffen

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Nov 22, 2015
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And we know they do because Maxwell quoted a post from here by Peter R where he was labelled a 'technician' :)
It reminds me that in the Soviet Union the central planners looked towards western markets to find realistic market prices on different products to help them determine how to allocate resources.

Maxwell, you dishonest bastard, the market wants bigger blocks!
 

Zarathustra

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Aug 28, 2015
1,439
3,797
Here is what I think the common man thinks about sound money.

They trust the governments, they trust the central banks to run the economy, they understand (believe) that there must be modest inflation, that exports count more than anything, and that the governments are the ones that create jobs and that jobs are crucial, (even subsidized jobs that destroy value), they believe regulation is necessary in all things. They are essentially statists, they believe in the religion of the state.
Exactly! Sad but true. It also applies to the cheerleaders of Blockstream/PwC/Axa/Core.

Thus spake Zarathustra:

11. The New Idol
Somewhere there are still peoples and herds, but not with us, my brethren: here there are states.

A state? What is that? Well! open now your ears unto me, for now will I say unto you my word concerning the death of peoples.

A state, is called the coldest of all cold monsters. Coldly lieth it also; and this lie creepeth from its mouth: "I, the state, am the people."

It is a lie! Creators were they who created peoples, and hung a faith and a love over them: thus they served life.

Destroyers, are they who lay snares for many, and call it the state: they hang a sword and a hundred cravings over them.

Where there is still a people, there the state is not understood, but hated as the evil eye, and as sin against laws and customs.

This sign I give unto you: every people speaketh its language of good and evil: this its neighbour understandeth not. Its language hath it devised for itself in laws and customs.

But the state lieth in all languages of good and evil; and whatever it saith it lieth; and whatever it hath it hath stolen.

False is everything in it; with stolen teeth it biteth, the biting one. False are even its bowels.

Confusion of language of good and evil; this sign I give unto you as the sign of the state. Verily, the will to death, indicateth this sign! Verily, it beckoneth unto the preachers of death!

Many too many are born: for the superfluous ones was the state devised!

See just how it enticeth them to it, the many-too-many! How it swalloweth and cheweth and recheweth them!

"On earth there is nothing greater than I: it is I who am the regulating finger of God."—thus roareth the monster. And not only the long-eared and short-sighted fall upon their knees!

Ah! even in your ears, ye great souls, it whispereth its gloomy lies! Ah! it findeth out the rich hearts which willingly lavish themselves!

Yea, it findeth you out too, ye conquerors of the old God! Weary ye became of the conflict, and now your weariness serveth the new idol!

Heroes and honourable ones, it would fain set up around it, the new idol! Gladly it basketh in the sunshine of good consciences,- the cold monster!

Everything will it give you, if ye worship it, the new idol: thus it purchaseth the lustre of your virtue, and the glance of your proud eyes.

It seeketh to allure by means of you, the many-too-many! Yea, a hellish artifice hath here been devised, a death-horse jingling with the trappings of divine honours!

Yea, a dying for many hath here been devised, which glorifieth itself as life: verily, a hearty service unto all preachers of death!

The state, I call it, where all are poison-drinkers, the good and the bad: the state, where all lose themselves, the good and the bad: the state, where the slow suicide of all—is called "life."

Just see these superfluous ones! They steal the works of the inventors and the treasures of the wise. Culture, they call their theft—and everything becometh sickness and trouble unto them!

Just see these superfluous ones! Sick are they always; they vomit their bile and call it a newspaper. They devour one another, and cannot even digest themselves.

Just see these superfluous ones! Wealth they acquire and become poorer thereby. Power they seek for, and above all, the lever of power, much money—these impotent ones!

See them clamber, these nimble apes! They clamber over one another, and thus scuffle into the mud and the abyss.

Towards the throne they all strive: it is their madness—as if happiness sat on the throne! Ofttimes sitteth filth on the throne.- and ofttimes also the throne on filth.

Madmen they all seem to me, and clambering apes, and too eager. Badly smelleth their idol to me, the cold monster: badly they all smell to me, these idolaters.

My brethren, will ye suffocate in the fumes of their maws and appetites! Better break the windows and jump into the open air!

Do go out of the way of the bad odour! Withdraw from the idolatry of the superfluous!

Do go out of the way of the bad odour! Withdraw from the steam of these human sacrifices!

Open still remaineth the earth for great souls. Empty are still many sites for lone ones and twain ones, around which floateth the odour of tranquil seas.

Open still remaineth a free life for great souls. Verily, he who possesseth little is so much the less possessed: blessed be moderate poverty!

There, where the state ceaseth—there only commenceth the man who is not superfluous: there commenceth the song of the necessary ones, the single and irreplaceable melody.

There, where the state ceaseth—pray look thither, my brethren! Do ye not see it, the rainbow and the bridges of the Superman?—

Thus spake Zarathustra.
 
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freetrader

Moderator
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Dec 16, 2015
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So what's wrong with this attack scenario:
1. Core provides HF to mining majority (who also happen to run a lot of nodes, e.g. BTCC)
2. Core does not release HF code
3. Mining majority does not release code
4. Mining majority implements HF readiness on its node network (boosted), pools, exchanges etc.
5. Mining majority implements code on its mines, forks the network to a private, permissioned, closed source ledger secured by the majority of hash power
6. Banks now run Bitcoin, bank runs denied
 
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cypherdoc

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7. Usage collapses
8. Price goes to zero
 
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