So, as someone who generally feels like the least-technical person on this forum and who hasn't really dug into segwit, am I crazy to think that it has almost nothing to do with scaling? In other words, I see people say that it's not "primarily" about scaling and that the effective increase in the block size limit is more of a lucky "side effect" or "bonus"... but even that seems wrong. The proposed formula could have been:
transaction data + witness data <= 1,000,000 bytes
which would have resulted in no increase in the block size limit, correct? But it would still have addressed segwit's main goals (i.e., fixing malleability). So it seems to me that the effective increase in the block size limit that we get from Core's actual SegWit proposal is more like a bribe: "hey, Bitcoin network, you know how you're now desperate for an increase in the block size limit because of the years we've spent stonewalling and goalpost-moving on that issue? Well, if you give us segwit (which we need for the Lightning Network), we'll give you a (token) increase in the (effective) block size limit. Oh, but not an honest, straightforward increase. No, part of the deal is that the effective increase must provide a huge (and completely arbitrary) discount for witness data, which -- it just so happens -- will provide an effective subsidy for Lightning Network settlement transactions (which will have more witness data than typical transactions)."
Is that about right?