Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[79b79aa8]

Where would we be now if those N.Corean dimwits hadn't interfered ?

i don't know that we would necessarily be in a better place. bad ideas need to die somehow.

even with big blockists, there were at least two major camps which resulted in two very different visions -- and in retrospect, agreement between them was never in the offing. BCH devs still aren't convinced that the strategy is not to alter the protocol to look for features that drive end-user adoption. they still don't think the blocksize limit should be removed entirely, immediately, ahead of demand.

so we are where we are:

• BTC is latecomer hodler lalaland
• BCH does not know who it wants to be:
  • ABC is passing the hat around to fund its declared dev priorities: fractional satoshis and an adaptive blocksize -- both unproven and quite possibly flawed concepts
  • BU need not pass the hat around but officers have ceased making proposals and seem to distrust their own membership
  • BCHN's main concern seems restricted to providing an alternative to miners so as to stop ABC's ability to dictate protocol development

meanwhile

• BSV is done with changes and is not seeking to understand what bitcoin is or can be. rather, there is a very clear understanding of the technology, as designed. main criticisms issued, AFAICT: (1) emotionally-laden ad hominems, (2) freezing the protocol is impossible, (3) IP is evil.

the halving is upon us. unlike the previous two times around, i don't see the build-up of a bull run for BTC. it is a good thing BSV has more or less decoupled and is starting from scratch, building a real user base. i also guess present BSV price is not too far from bottom.

 

[Zarathustra]

Indeed.

Prophecy of Dr. Paul C. Martin 1987, translated from German:

Today is the worldwide day of last-resort lending as described by the English economist Walter Bagehot in the 19th century: All countries will be liable for all countries, all central banks for all central banks, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and many other international institutions. And all countries will stand for all banks, however, all central banks will also face the music for all countries, and all countries for all central banks. All, all, all will be there for all, all, all. And all know, that nothing must happen to anybody, since then it would happen to all of them.

Original quote in German:

"Heute ist weltweit Bagehot total: Alle Staaten werden für alle Staaten, alle Notenbanken für alle Notenbanken haften, einschließlich Währungsfonds und Weltbank und vielen anderen internationalen Institutionen. Und alle Staaten werden für alle Banken geradestehen, aber auch alle Notenbanken für alle Staaten und alle Staaten für alle Notenbanken. Alle, alle, alle werden für alle, alle, alle dasein. Und alle wissen, dass keinem von allen etwas passieren darf, weil dann allen etwas zustößt."

@cypherdoc
He also predicted a long time ago that central banks would buy boxer shorts in the final battle.

R.I.P. Dr. Paul C. Martin (greatest socio-economist of all times)

He refuted the Austrians and the Keynesians alike, and everything in between. It's Debitism, stupid ..., always had been, since the invention of the economy after the neolithic revolution, as the self-sufficient homo sapiens has been transformed into a ridiculous caricature of himself, a homo oeconomicus, aka debt slave.

As soon as people are systematically indebted, their economic production increases a hundredfold in a very short time, while non-indebted people and non-nationalized people do not (have to!) record any growth in production.


He was an exceptional journalist. An exceptional economist. An exceptional thinker. An exceptional teacher. An exceptional narrator. He read everything he could get his hands on. The shelves, where he stowed his books criss-cross, measured dozens of meters. Not a few of them centuries old. PCM had first editions of Martin Luther and famous economists, in which he leafed through the pages regularly and almost tenderly.

Above all, he was an incredibly good writer, a master of language. His words came either as a sledgehammer or as sharp needle sticks that he set over and over again. Quite a few politicians and managers have felt it. Especially Helmut Schmidt (PCM: "retired world economist") was able to sing a song about it.

Cicero, by the way, I learned from him for the first time, wasn't just killed and dragged through the streets of Rome without a reason. He was a creditor and was the victim of a government debt reduction ("proscription"). It was only implemented a little more robustly in ancient Rome than it is today.

Dr. Paul C. Martin ist tot: Er war ein Meister der Sprache

Dr. Paul C. Martin war von 1992 bis 2000 Vize-Chef von BILD. Der promovierte Wirtschafts-Wissenschaftler wurde 80 Jahre alt.

www.bild.de

Search results for query: Paul c martin

bitco.in

 

[cypherdoc]

i disagree with the term debitism. first, b/c the implication is that there is no money printing (which there is), it will be paid back eventually (it won't) and thus gives a veneer that the Fed & USG are somehow being fiscally responsible (they aren't). second, the euphemism, money printing, more directly and accurately explains what is going on, as evidenced by these 3 graphs:



this graph:



and this graph:

 

[cypherdoc]

oh my:

 

[Zarathustra]

i disagree with the term debitism. first, b/c the implication is that there is no money printing (which there is), it will be paid back eventually (it won't) and thus gives a veneer that the Fed & USG are somehow being fiscally responsible (they aren't). second, the euphemism, money printing, more directly and accurately explains what is going on, as evidenced by these 3 graphs:

Debitism is the reality since the very beginning. What does this chart even mean? Do you hodl cash? Nobody does.

The debitist reality is another one: The return on debt contracts (bills, bonds, stocks) is much higher than on metal and cash.

Buying power of 1 $ over time:

 

[Zarathustra]

oh my:

@Norway was right: Corona collapsing - Bitcoin Up

 

[cypherdoc]

Debitism is the reality since the very beginning. What does this chart even mean? Do you hodl cash? Nobody does.

The debitist reality is another one: The return on debt contracts (bills, bonds, stocks) is much higher than on metal and cash.

Buying power of 1 $ over time:

everything you say here just supports my point; effectively we have a money printing system that devalues USD everyday in deference to pushing up stocks, RE, and speculative investments for the elite. make no mistake, we have the same understanding here; you just choose to describe it differently than i. and yours is technically correct from a balance sheet perspective. mine is the realist's net effect view though. "debitism" implies/infers, imo, that for every dollar printed there is an equivalent dollar's worth of debt on the other side of whomever's balance sheet, whether it is the banks, gvt's, or Fed's balance sheet. NO. while the numbers on everyone's balance appear to line up, they in fact don't b/c the debts are never valued properly. we know this for a fact from the 2008 crisis, and now, b/c in times of crises the Fed takes bad debt onto it's balance sheet in the form of bailouts (money printing) that has incorrectly been valued at mark to model and NOT mark to market. this is why you see the Fed's balance sheet ballooning and the monetary base doing Roman Candles and the USD devaluing constantly b/c it's all financed effectively by "money printing" and a desperate need to keep the system/market from imploding and bad actors alive. the Fed's balance sheet will never decrease b/c the USG amongst others has no intention of ever paying off it's debt (the biggest bad actor in a pool of bad actors). in fact, it looks every year for ways of increasing it. every politician and one percenter has the attitude that it's someone else's and tomorrows problem. "i'll get mine while i can and pass it to my kids; they'll be fine". the system is built on "money printing" with a debitism veneer. the wizard behind the curtain hides. Neil Kashkari, "we can print unlimited amounts of dollars".

 

[79b79aa8]

devalues USD everyday in deference to pushing up stocks, RE, and speculative investments for the elite

Orthodox Neoclassical Economists will maintain this spurs investment and growth, thereby generating wealth, with a concomitant increase in living standards in general.

this is the macro system we belong to, it is hardly conceivable it could change in our lifetimes.

 

[Zarathustra]

Neil Kashkari, "we can print unlimited amounts of dollars".

They can't. They would lose trust, the dollar would lose value and they would have to raise interest rates to prevent capital flight. Currencies always compete on the forex market. A Zimbabwe Dollar is not backed by anything. The ruble is a bit better, but still not backed as good as western currencies, which are backed by trust, which is backed by a competitive economy, a competitive legal system etc., hence they perform better than Russian and Zimbabwe money on the forex market. You can't just print when it's backed by nothing.

> "debitism" implies/infers, imo, that for every dollar printed there is an equivalent dollar's worth of debt on the other side of whomever's balance sheet, whether it is the banks, gvt's, or Fed's balance sheet.

Paul C. Martin called it debitism because since the invention of the economy after the Neolithic Revolution, everything has been primarily about debt. It started the whole system and is the engine of all growth. Where there is no debt system, there is no economy and certainly no growing economy.
Debt/interest enforces economic growth. Other economic schools ignore this main engine and believe in barterism, which somehow creates economic growth through trade and barter, which is a completely naive, ahistorical view of things. Debt is the motor no. 1.

He has described in detail that the quality of debt deteriorates faster and faster in the final phase.

Nonetheless the breakdown of all property-systems is inevitably. This we actually can study watching the exploding indebtedness of "democratic” powers. The problem of state power vs. private economic activities is per definitionem unsolvable. Wealth creating inevitably sooner or later leads to wealth destruction. This explains “rise and fall” of any power- or state-based system throughout history.

The first page explains it all in short:

https://reissverschluss-verfahren.de/wp-content/uploads/Martin-Symp.pdf

 

[cypherdoc]

They can't.

they have, they are, and they will.

They would lose trust

could be happening as we speak

the dollar would lose value

i thought the graph i supplied already shows that it has

and they would have to raise interest rates

apparently not as the "unlimited money printing" is enough of a threat to keep UST rates suppressed. this is the most counter intuitive dynamic that have fooled the hyperinflationists for decades now.

You can't just print when it's backed by nothing.

like i said, the printing is backed by a veneer of trust, responsibility, intimidation, force. however, the debt will never be repaid, just turned over repeatedly, all funded by money printing.

Debt is the motor no. 1.

i agree entirely; when it's responsibly implemented. but ever since 1972, and arguably since 1933, all responsible debt went out the window. it's now effectively all about money printing backed by mark to model bad debt.

 

[79b79aa8]

Other economic schools ignore this main engine and believe in barterism, which somehow creates economic growth through trade and barter, which is a completely naive, ahistorical view of things.

i suppose no factor can have comparable impact on an economy as QEing to the tune of $3T USD, but trade does generate growth. if i produce 10kg of apples but can only consume 5, and thus have 5kg to trade, i can generate extra income to consume or invest which would be nonexistent if i had no one to trade with and downsized to only producing 5kgs. the situation is the same for those i traded with, for those they traded with, usw.

 

[79b79aa8]

any chance IBM lures EHR Data Inc. to their platform, hijacking the BSV deal? i keep waiting to see those EHR txns, no cigar.

IBM Products

The place to shop for software, hardware and services from IBM and our providers. Browse by technologies, business needs and services.

www.ibm.com

this is at least likely, surely it would be a safer move for the mgmt. of EHR Data Inc. to hire IBM than nChain.

on the other hand, even if they do, IBM could end up piggy-backing on the BSV blockchain anyway. setting up a private DLT is more expensive than "subcontracting" to a public one. meanwhile BTC's "4" MB and BCH's 32MB blocks are woefully insufficient for storing healthcare data on chain, and nobody would make major plans depend on the promise of a yet to be designed, tested and implemented adaptive blocksize system.

 

[Zarathustra]

i suppose no factor can have comparable impact on an economy as QEing to the tune of $3T USD, but trade does generate growth. if i produce 10kg of apples but can only consume 5, and thus have 5kg to trade, i can generate extra income to consume or invest which would be nonexistent if i had no one to trade with and downsized to only producing 5kgs. the situation is the same for those i traded with, for those they traded with, usw.

Yes, but the question is: why do we trade. We trade since and because we are indebted. A population without debt does not trade. A population without debt is self-sufficient and has no reason to trade with aliens. That was always the case before the neolithic revolution, and is still the case in a population who lives without government. Zero economic growth.

 

[79b79aa8]

Yes, but the question is: why do we trade. We trade since and because we are indebted. A population without debt does not trade. A population without debt is self-sufficient and has no reason to trade with aliens. That was always the case before the neolithic revolution, and is still the case in a population who lives without government. Zero economic growth.

i see that as getting into far murkier waters . . . is it a historical claim? a genealogical one (in nietzsche's sense)? or one based on the supposedly unchanging springs of human motivation? how does one evaluate it vs. the opposing claim that we trade because in general we desire variety?

this is OT territory, i will wander no further ... the interesting point is that you and cypher basically agree on monetary expansion.

 

[Zarathustra]

i thought the graph i supplied already shows that it has

No. Such graphs are misleading. They don't even tell half of the story. As I already showed you with my graph. You don't hodl cash. Your dollar value has been growing compared to gold and most commodities over time, because you collected interests and/or dividends on your 'printed' paper contracts. It would be a shame for a company if their value would not grow faster than the value of commodities.

like i said, the printing is backed by a veneer of trust, responsibility, intimidation, force. however, the debt will never be repaid, just turned over repeatedly, all funded by money printing.

Sub summa, debt always grows. It has never been repaid. It's a chain-letter.

The problem of state power vs. private economic activities is per definitionem unsolvable.


I collected and translated some of PCM's forum posts:

I do not know how the government ratio could be kept constant (certainly not in democracies). Adolph Wagner had already pointed this out in the 19th century ("Law of increasing state duties and expenditures").
..........

> absolute state credit ban with effective means of enforcement,

That doesn't work either, because the state always pays out earlier than it can have deposits. His deposits depend on sales and earnings, so sales and earnings must be there before he can access them. In addition, the state often pays in advance (civil servants, pensioners). The "state without debt" is a chimera and has never been observed in the history sub summa all states.

.........

> You hope / fear / build on the state bankruptcy.

Simple financial math. The state problem (earlier payments, later deposits) can never be solved. So it's just a matter of time before bankruptcy occurs.

...............

The state construct will always fail because coercion always has to fail [proof: the coercer has to eat before he can even compel, so he has to make deposits before his withdrawals; but since he has to execute payments earlier than he recieves deposits (taxes, etc.), he has to pull in deposits (debts) - and off we go.

The state problem is simply not to be solved!

..............

I am happy to repeat:

The state problem cannot be solved.

Sooner or later it goes there. Sometimes single, sometimes group. Finally everyone this time.

The reason is also very simple: People prefer freedom over coercion.

No matter how well camouflaged the constraint ("we need legal certainty, etc."), or benevolently implored ("minimalist government") - it just doesn't work. NEVER.

That's why it has never worked in the history. Funny, isn't it?

.....................

Power is the most productive thing there is: others work for you! Nobody can beat that. King lets aristocrats work, these (patrician) underdogs, they make companies ("capitalists"), again underdogs. And the upper power always protects the underpower, that is, the government at the end also the small mom and pop shop.

The system ends NOW because no underdogs can be found for the -underdogs.

 

[cypherdoc]

You don't hodl cash. Your dollar value has been growing compared to gold and most commodities over time, because you collected interests and/or dividends on your 'printed' paper contracts.

exactly right. and this is solely b/c the Fed has been printing money to accumulate worthless debt and will forever continue to increase the monetary base and balance sheet infinitely to do so.

 

[cypherdoc]

@Zarathustra let me ask you another way; do you think it would be possible for the Western world to create all this "debtism", as you call it, without the central banks and "money printing"?

 

[Zarathustra]

exactly right. and this is solely b/c the Fed has been printing money to accumulate worthless debt and will forever continue to increase the monetary base and balance sheet infinitely to do so.

Cypher, as my graph shows, it did not change in 200 years. The return on debt contracts has always been much higher than on commodities. With or without FED.

@Zarathustra let me ask you another way; do you think it would be possible for the Western world to create all this "debtism", as you call it, without the central banks and "money printing"?

We call it debitism (derived from Latin) There are different variants of it. Capitalist, socialist, feudalist. The capitalist variant is the most competitive on the world markets.

Without central banks the economies haven't been able to raise the overall debt level as high as it is today.

The system learned from previous recessions and depressions. The rulers learned that if they declare everything as too big to fail, recessions and depressions can be prevented. To me it is clear: It can't be prevented. It can just be postponed to a tipping point. As soon as we cross it, all those prevented recessions will take place at the same time. I guess you agree with my position.

This flu could be the tipping point. Now it's easy for terrorists to create orders of magnitude more damage than before, since they know that the world is stupid enough to shut down everything as soon as someone will spread the flu.

BBB - Bye Bye Bye

 

[cypherdoc]

Uh oh, I am so sorry :



Not good :

 

[AdrianX]

IBM could end up piggy-backing on the BSV blockchain anyway.

I've spoke with IBM and from what I learned, that's not going to happen.

this is at least likely, surely it would be a safer move for the mgmt. of EHR data to hire IBM than nChain.

IBM have their own private blockchain, they are already pitching cities and governments selling all the benifits with none of the downside of their private partners PoS chain.

They're not intrested in PoW only tech that can be absorbed into their ecosystem.

It comes down to who pitches first and how bright the people in government are.

Already IBM are cleaning up when selling solutions to the environmentally conscious governments, building smart cities while BSV, BCH, and BTC haven't even acknowledged there are environmental problems in the making that can be solved with a universally accessible PoW public ledger. Most in this space are trying to win the climate change argument and not the business solutions that use the blockchain.