Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

rocks

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Sep 24, 2015
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Based on Plassaras' interpretation, there are only two ways which the IMF could ever acquire bitcoin.
The IMF could accumulate Bitcoins through its member countries by expanding the scope of Article IV, Section 5 of the Articles of Agreement to include digital currencies. This would enable the Fund to require all member nations to pay part of their subscription quota with bitcoins, giving the IMF a steady supply of bitcoins for their reserves. However, the rules can be interpreted loosely or strictly, and this may not be possible at all, he speculates.
Alternatively, the IMF can directly acquire bitcoins themselves, from exchanges and users. The problem is that “Article II, Section 2 explicitly states that membership to the IMF is only open to other countries,” Plassaras argues. Therefore, in order to obtain bitcoin directly, “Article II could be amended to include a new section, Section 3, which provides quasi-membership status for digital currencies.”
Since bitcoin would not need full IMF benefits or burdens of membership, such as the ability to borrow money from the IMF, the agency would “recognize Bitcoin as an ‘IMF-official’ digital currency.” Plassaras suggests that by this method, bitcoin will gain increased legitimacy from the IMF's recognition, while the IMF would benefit from having a way to purchase bitcoin reserves.

http://bravenewcoin.com/news/imf-unable-to-supply-the-currency-needed-to-counter-speculative-attack-using-bitcoin/
If organizations such as the IMF ever started to acquire bitcoin, I think the effect would be much larger than most people realize.

Modern central banking relies upon the ability of a central bank to create units of account for itself on demand. The ability to create units on demand enables a central bank to stop market forces from functioning during periods when demand for money outstrips supply (which is what happens during deflationary periods or when an economy takes too much debt and collapses). Central banks do this simply by increasing supply out of thin air and providing that new supply to the market. The increase in supply is done to an effect that rebalances supply and demand for money. However instead of letting the market rebalance supply and demand by rewarding savers, central banks rebalance supply and demand by rewarding selected groups.

Given this, the IMF or FED acquiring bitcoin does not provide them the same functionality they have and expect today, for the simple reason that the IMF or FED can not create BTC units on demand. To have today's functionality, they need the ability to create new supply in proportion to market demand during downturns. However doing so: 1) Would quickly drain the IMF's or FED's supply of BTC and 2) The quantity require today to combat downturns outstrips any amount of supply they could acquire (example, the FED increased supply >400% of total supply since 2009, that is not possible in Bitcoin ).

As a result, the only reason for organizations such as the IMF to acquire Bitcoin is to hold it as a reserve asset. The reason this would be more impactful than most realize is central banks acquire reserve assets to permanently hold them, not to sell them into downturns. So if the IMF ever started to acquire bitcoins, it would do so with the intention holding the coins to back its own currency units, and those bitcoins would in effect be removed from daily supply.

I seriously doubt the IMF or FED are interested in acquiring bitcoins though. Sound money mechanics are diametrically opposite to the functionality they exploit today. I expect central banks would only start to acquire bitcoins after everyone else views bitcoins as more valuable than fiat. We're a ways away from that unfortunately

Edit:
Plassaras asserts that the IMF is ill-equipped to handle the widespread use of digital currencies in the foreign exchange market, and a theoretical speculative attack from bitcoin users.

A speculative attack in the foreign exchange market is the massive selling of a country's currency assets by both domestic and foreign investors.

If this happens, the nation's central bank would need to already possess bitcoin reserves in order to offset the attack, and if it does not have enough bitcoin, it would turn to the IMF for assistance, if it is a member.

However, the IMF does not have any bitcoin currently, and will find it challenging to obtain enough bitcoin for their reserves. Further, if there is a speculative attack by a bitcoin holder, the IMF's current rules do not allow the agency to acquire bitcoin.
To me these statements show the extent of the ideological rot in central banking today, expose a glaring misunderstanding of how markets work, and highlight my points above.

Plassaras essentially said: "If people start to sell fiat and buy bitcoins, then to counter this we need an unlimited quantity of bitcoins to sell into that market demand to offset it and maintain the current BTC/fiat price ratios." This is absurd. He also calls market demand to sell fiat and buy bitcoin a "speculative attack".

The number of things wrong with such a view is astounding .
1) Plassaras does not seem to understand that it is impossible to acquire enough of a hard asset to counter market demand, as you sell the hard asset to support your fiat the market sees this and values your fiat less and less, furthering the "speculative attack".
2) It is the HOLDING of a hard asset that provides value to fiat. By selling the hard asset to "support" your current spot price, you are LOWERING the value of the fiat you are trying to hold up..
3) Plassaras also does not seem to understand that any amount of BTC held to counter market forces, first has to be purchased on the open market. This pre-purchasing would have to at least equal or exceed the counteractive selling they would later require. The pre-purchasing though would itself be the "speculative attack"
4) The selling of fiat for bitcoin (or any hard asset) is not a "speculative attack" but normal market forces placing value on assets. You cannot control market valuation of assets. The fact that Plassaras, Bernake and Yellen think you can is shocking.
I could go on but it is late
 
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Peter R

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The email I just received:



I'm sad because I wanted to present some of the progress on Bitcoin Unlimited that many people here have been working hard at.
 
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solex

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Aug 22, 2015
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@Peter R
Very disappointing. I truly hope that the Scaling Hong Kong program committee do not have a soft spot for the wounded feelings of poked bears.

Edit: It is outrageous, as your talk at Montreal was arguably the best, the most learned and well-presented for a joint lay and academic audience. Further, your talk at HK introduces a viable solution that is not just a variation on the many possible conventional block limit constants and algorithms which are likely to be heard.
 
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rocks

Active Member
Sep 24, 2015
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The email I just received:



I'm sad because I wanted to present some of the progress on Bitcoin Unlimited that many people here have been working hard at.
Sorry to hear that Peter it is really a shame.

Look on the bright side though. If this is any indication, it is that the conference was never intended to be used to make progress on blocksize and instead is just a stalling mechanism. (Just as Mike Hearn has stated multiple times). The end result will be no progress, which then in turn enables Coinbase and other ecosystem members to drop this core nonsense and move forward without them.

The worst outcome would be if the scaling conference generates just enough movement to keep everyone still trying to engage, but not enough movement to actually do anything. By not including you, they are one step farther away from that, and another step closer to people taking maters into their own hands.
 

sickpig

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Aug 28, 2015
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just to avoid dwelling on Hong Kong sadness:


this is pretty scaring, isn't it? add to that amount the taxes and you'll get a greedy parasite that is killing his host.

edit: fix grammar
 
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Zangelbert Bingledack

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Aug 29, 2015
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@theZerg

@Zangelbert Bingledack: I strongly feel that the block reward stuff is best left as a thought experiment. Since the vast majority of holders are happy with the block reward schedule, why even go there? People will just use that option as an attack vector. I don't think the community is ready to understand that it was never the code in the first place--instead, they've been the ones in control all along.
Yes tactically I agree. Of course don't put in such a feature. I'm basically saying we should be tactical but shouldn't let tactics cloud our vision of where Bitcoin is inevitably headed, which is that even unsophisticated users will trivially be able to adjust settings as desired. Bitcoin must be robust under that scenario, because it's coming. Users are not ready to understand this yet, but eventually they will have to have the correct understanding of how Bitcoin is actually governed when Bitcoin's market cap is in the trillions and it is facing threats unimaginable to us from the most fearsome foes.
[doublepost=1447838358,1447837633][/doublepost]
I don't know if this is a good analogy, but I feel like changing the 21 million coins is kind of like changing the definition of the meter. It could be done, but the network effects of having that common standard are so useful, and the number is fairly arbitrary, that there would have to be an extremely compelling reason to get momentum for that kind of change. Whereas the max blocksize is maybe more like a pragmatic social norm, such as the inappropriateness of entering a retail establishment and dumping thousands of pennies to pay, or the expectation of standing on a certain side of an escalator so that people who want to pass can walk up the other side.
That's a great analogy. We won't change the definition of a meter because it'd be really dumb, would require all sorts of retooling and redoing of standards, waste economics resources, kill the network effects of our nascent measuring system as it is on the rise (imagine the metric system is just starting to go mainstream), etc.... until for some radically unforeseen but possible reason it would no longer be dumb but smart, indispensable, crucial. And also, like with Bitcoin, when it completely takes over the world it no longer kills the network effect to change such a setting.

This is far future theory, and I know there is concern that people would use this to paint me a fool or inflationista, but I refuse to compromise on the pursuit of truth just because I could be misunderstood or taken out of context. Bitcoin ultimately cannot afford the luxury of such a systematic distortion for PR purposes, as it is destined to confront the most powerful organizations in the world. The sooner people do come to understand and fully internalize that Bitcoin is a creature of the market, the better its chances of success because the fewer development and thought resources will be wasted on dead ends.

However, I fully get that even if others here agree with this, BU shouldn't be the thing that serves as the "red pill."
 
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Zangelbert Bingledack

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Aug 29, 2015
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@Peter R

They're done ignoring and laughing, now they're fighting, and soon they'll be saying it was obvious all along. Attending the conference could still be quite an experience to understand their mindset and maybe present to small groups privately, but in the spirit of focusing on building the new rather than trying to reform the old, perhaps your time is better spent elsewhere.

I tend to think the Internet is the ultimate "conference" and their conference is just blocksize progress theater. If you (and all of us) keep spilling the ideas into the meme-o-sphere and if they are undeniable in their truth, they must catch on.

No one can stop an idea whose time has come.
 
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Zangelbert Bingledack

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Note to visitors from reddit:

Despite the title of this thread, it broadly covers all developments in Bitcoin that are of interest to Bitcoin investors and stakeholders (actual BTC price discussion mostly happens in the Wall Observer thread).

There is a wealth of information and analysis in the preceding pages, so go ahead and stay a while! :)
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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so, Maxwell no longer posts on Reddit, has breached his duties as BIP Editor by resigning from the dev mailing list, and also withdrew as an editor of Ledger? that's an interesting strategy given his position in core dev.

now it sounds as if he and his BS buddies have banned @Peter R's presentation at Scaling Bitcoin. how ridiculous is that given that many, many ppl (including me) considered his presentation the most interesting and possibly important paper submitted. i have no first hand knowledge of this, only what i've heard from sources in the background.

has anyone asked who is going to replace Maxwell as BIP Editor given his breach of duty?
[doublepost=1447866435,1447865623][/doublepost]
[doublepost=1447818554][/doublepost]Does any block explorer have an API and store time of receipt along with the block's timestamp?
be careful relying on block timestamps which can be notoriously unreliable.
 

Inca

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Aug 28, 2015
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l love the logos! Do you want to skin www.bitcoinunlimited.info? Its a Meteor site.

Excellent work with the logo's.

By rejecting Peter's presentation they are sending a message - bothersome outsiders not welcome. I agree with the sentiments raised earlier that hopefully this signals to the wider community that this scaling conference is a farce, designed simply to obfuscate the debate and delay any progress on this issue.

With testnet running bip-101 9mb blocks with no issues it shouldn't take long for momentum to build amongst the companies which will lose out financially by keeping bitcoin limited unnecessarily. Any patience the stakeholders in the space have must surely be fast running out.

It is time for the leads of this open source project to learn what happens when they stop listening to everyone else..
 

cypherdoc

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Aug 26, 2015
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The email I just received:



I'm sad because I wanted to present some of the progress on Bitcoin Unlimited that many people here have been working hard at.
everybody should know that @Peter R's paper was originally accepted. the blowback decision reversal ruckus only started gathering apace after his back and forth with gmax on the dev mailing list after which gmax summarily resigned b/c of "trolling". it's clear gmax was pissed off.
 
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Zangelbert Bingledack

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I've been going through the history of discussion of @Peter R's paper on the mailing list. There's so much interesting content and behavior from the Blockstream devs. Here's Adam Back talking about how miners can't be trusted:
About security to try to make those comparisons a bit more formal I posted this taxonomy of types of security that proposals could be compared against, in order of security:

1. consensus rule (your block is invalid if you attack)

2. economic incentive alignment (you tend to lose money if you attack)

3. overt (attack possible but detectable, hence probably less likely to happen for reputation or market signal reasons even if possible anonymously)

4. meta incentive (assume people would not attack if they have an investment or interest in seeing Bitcoin continue to succeed)
All these really are about losing money, but Adam doesn't see it.

1. Publish an invalid block, it gets orphaned = lose money (unless it doesn't get orphaned because people actually change what they consider valid (think >1MB blocks))

2. Lose money = lose money

3. Loss of rep = lose money

4. Damage to bitcoin = lose money (sunk equipment costs, at the very least)

He isn't seeing that economic incentives are all their is. He looks at (c) in Forkology 101 and imagines he sees (a) and (b).

Or to take the empirical view in @Peter R's Forkology 201, the consensus rule of the 1MB blocksize cap (for example) may not even exist. We don't know if the miners and nodes really are in consensus on that anyway, because - since anyone can download XT or otherwise find a way to change this setting when the cap starts manifesting through their software - this is a consensus of people, not software or depersonalized "nodes."

For all we know, these people are all in agreement that they will switch to the upgraded version of Core if it's released in time, or to XT or BU if it's not. There's your consensus. The software consensus is merely a default that can be changed at any time by downloading a different version with a different consensus.

The user-adjustable version of Bitcoin Unlimited just brings this reality to the fore by making it much faster and easier. User-adjustable BU makes salient the true underlying nature of the Bitcoin network, rather than hiding it through a barrier of inconvenience.
 
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cypherdoc

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yep, this is why i worry about the practicality of sidechains. the one and only model of merge mining we have, Namecoin, is insecure. so why do we assume a whole bunch of sidechains dependent on merge mining would be secure? furthermore, who will run full node for these so as to decentralize them given that miniblockists complain we are having trouble doing that for the mainchain?:

There are still plenty of alternative blockchain proponents out there in Bitcoin land, but this is one of the clearest examples of why many alternative use cases of the blockchain may eventually be rolled back into Bitcoin. This trend may accelerate with the proliferation of sidechains, although it will be interesting to see if the same sort of merged mining issues found with Namecoin take place in that setup.

https://www.coingecko.com/buzz/3-reasons-onename-switched-from-namecoin-to-bitcoin

 
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awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
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@Peter R.: People are asking you to simply present the paper on a video. I think that's a brilliant idea and it would allow you to protest and participate at the conference at the same time.

You could also use this to emphasize the decentralized nature of the Internet and this beast named Bitcoin that they're trying to tame behind (essentially) closed doors.

If you have the balls (I must I admit I wouldn't... :D), you could also go to the conference and the post your video on youtube during a pause or similar and people there surfing reddit would certainly notice it and it might cause the necessary stink :D