Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

Dusty

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Mar 14, 2016
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i want to make it reasonably reliable to say that IF you haven't seen a double send within 10seonds and the TX fee is about right, there's a 99.9% chance it will confrim in the next block even if there is a double spend later.
That's my point: with a 10 minute block average interval the double spender can wait some minutes before sending the conflicting transaction, on the contrary, with (say) 1 minute blocks 20 to 30 seconds are more than enough to give the merchant a good confidence.

So, while total security of the chain does not change with different block time, for zero conf txs that changes a lot, because the absolute time to wait for high confidence is much less.
 
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adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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@Dusty

Interesting point. maybe faster block intervals is a worthwhile improvement. But I know that beefing up the first seen rule ( or Guideline? ) for miners is easy, non-controversial, softfork. and while it doesn't guarantee anything, for particle purposes it would be effective. The reality is that double spends are rare, and (with this first seen rule) practically impossible to pull of without miners medaling.

I've heard some na sayers when it comes to increasing block interval. Before being comfortable with it, I think it would need to be tested thoroughly, we need to understand the impact and pros / cons fully.

it would be perfect opt. to change the block interval at the same time of introducing a new EDA, since block interval is just a small tweak to the EDA algo...But right now we have consensus about changing the EDA, not sure if it would be possible to gain consensus about changing block interval at the same time.

I think ETH did some really good research as to what an optimal block interval should be, looking at that research is a good first step.
 

Dusty

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Mar 14, 2016
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it would be perfect opt. to change the block interval at the same time of introducing a new EDA, since block interval is just a small tweak to the EDA algo...But right now we have consensus about changing the EDA, not sure if it would be possible to gain consensus about changing block interval at the same time.
Yes, but on the other side, it's better do as less hard forks as possible, so, that should be the right time.

I think ETH did some really good research as to what an optimal block interval should be, looking at that research is a good first step.
Ethereum has block time around 15-20 seconds and it works great, but to avoid ton of orphans they use "uncles", a very interesting concept that as a side effect changes the number of mined of coins in each block, raising it. This in fact creates a bit more inflation. Also I think orphans are not useful anymore when the block reward will only be made of fees.

That's why I think a 15 seconds time like eth is too low for Bitcoin Cash, while 1 minute should work fine enough.
 
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adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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That's encouraging that the fraudulent Peter Todd talking point that "Bitcoin has never intentionally hardforked" is finally getting buried.
From the very first video i saw of Peter Todd i didnt like him. At first i though " maybe its not such a bad thing to have the point of view of a paranoid overly cautious dev " but time and time again they have used obscenely exaggerated truths to scare the public into thinking their way.

i mean... poeple are legitimately concerned that 2x will devastate bitcoin's decentralization and turn it into a centrally controlled server client model....

at this point I dont care... let core use fear and political maneuvering to control bitcoin, we will use science to push the envelope and bring the blockchain to billions of users.

bitcoin is dead long live Bitcoin!
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Yes, but on the other side, it's better do as less hard forks as possible, so, that should be the right time.
agreed.

Ethereum has block time around 15-20 seconds and it works great, but to avoid ton of orphans they use "uncles", a very interesting concept that as a side effects changes the number of mined of coins in each block, raising it. This in fact creates a bit more inflation. Also I think orphans are not useful anymore when the block reward will only be made of fees.

That's why I think a 15 seconds time like eth is too low for Bitcoin Cash, while 1 minute should work fine enough.
Whaaa 20seconds i didnt realize it was that low. ya 1min might be "just fine" and really not cause any kind of long term consequences, but its definitely going to take some testing, thinking, and discussion.

we could throw the idea out there, and see if core can only come up with retarded arguments against it. :whistle:
 

awemany

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Aug 19, 2015
1,387
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As all this social media stuff around Bitcoin is a huge time sink and as I feel none of us small guys have any say (except of course collectively voting with our feet) left in what will go down in the next weeks anyways, and as I want to trick myself to be more productive again instead of rather pointlessly hanging around too much on /r/btc, the slack or this forum, I propose the following prediction game:

Rules: Write down your prediction on how the November 2x fork and the events that lead up to that date will turn out or not. Hash it and post it here. After that, and "to not jinx it", refrain from talking about any predictions, expectations and so forth regarding Bitcoin's future - and do that up to and including the fork day.

After that, reveal or don't reveal your prediction at your sole discretion (simply if you feel like it).

So here's my prediction: ab9b1a3f3af5129eadb8a0eb0b7b6817a03d696e21805088a7a5a678d6cb23d2
 

adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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today's top story is interesting.

Xapo says they are going to side with majority hashing power ( segwit2x ), and alot of poeple are going crazy over this.
I read their comments and i can help but think " i can't Fing wait for these guys have their very own "Proof of /r/bitcoin" coin.
while Xapo saying yes to 2x is good for 2x, it seems that 2x will result in a pretty nasty split. And while it might seem clear to us which side is full of shit and which side has legitimately won ( a small battle for a small incress to blocksize -_- ) I fear the situation will escalate to epic proportions and cause some real damage.

hoping that core gets a tiny slice of the pie and quickly becomes a mostly irrelevant altcoin, while segwit2x clearly "wins" the BTC label, seems like a pipe dream today.
 

go1111111

Active Member
Xapo says they are going to side with majority hashing power ( segwit2x )
IMO, Xapo's block post makes Seg2x supporters look bad, because it gives the impression that they would literally follow any chain that had majority hashing power.

The reason to prefer seg2x is that the rules are better than on the 1x chain. If this is true, then miners will see that users prefer it and will give it more hash power.

I'm sure we can all think of changes to Bitcoin that we would reject even if a majority of hashpower favored them. What if 80% of hashpower pledged to mine on a chain that had explicit KYC baked into the protocol? Would you support it just because miners did?

Recommendation: stop pretending that it makes sense to follow whatever miners do, and argue for 2x on its intrinsic merits.
 

adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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@go1111111

i'd say:
stop pretending miners would ever agree to push through a change that is not favorable.

your statement :"What if 80% of hashpower pledged to mine on a chain that had explicit KYC baked into the protocol?"
makes no sense, thats not an option that we would ever give miners. miners dont get to make the rules, Miners are just the "tie breakers" when "we" can't agree.

when its clear as day that upgrade XYZ is all good, miners have no say, they either update or fork-themselves.

when its not so clear, and we can do option A , B , or C, then we use miners to "break the tie" so to speak. at this point minners are faced with " achieve consensus or FORK YOURSELFS "

where it all went wrong with "the block size debate" was when miners we're asked to break the tie, and miners picked bigger blocks, Core could not accept that outcome, and really started the political games... and nearly 3 years later we haven't really progressed beyond this ( not quite yet anyway )

in conclusion, we MUST follow whatever miners do.:cool:
 
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go1111111

Active Member
when its not so clear, and we can do option A , B , or C, then we use miners to "break the tie"
There really is no "tie breaker" because everyone is always free to go off on their own chain. If the economy is split 50/50, there will be a fork. The "tie breaker" is the market, and even then the minority chain can survive (and will if its community is passionate). The forks with the most long term user demand will have more value, regardless of what miners think.

Same if the economy is split 70/30.

Miners can have some short term effect by making one chain difficult to use until users change PoW, but this doesn't make them a "tie breaker."

Let's test your theory: if you think miners act as tie-breakers, then surely you think seg2x will be more valuable than the 1x coin, right? Have you been making financial decisions accordingly? Planning to do atomic swaps with Core supporters?
 
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adamstgbit

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@go1111111

The bitcoin and bitcoin cash split has more to do with the fundamentals then any specific issue. bitcoin cash believes that its fundamental for bitcoin to be p2p cash as described in the white paper, bitcoin cash believes miners are the "tie breakers", bitcoin cash forked off based on these fundamentals disagreements with core, Block size was just the issue at the center of a much larger disagreement.

I bet we will get to see how quickly and decisively future improvments to bitcoin cash gets rolled out. because as opposed to core, bitcoin cash will not view miners as adversaries, but rather advisors. but thats besides the point...

if you think miners act as tie-breakers, then surely you think seg2x will be more valuable than the 1x coin, right? Have you been making financial decisions accordingly? Planning to do atomic swaps with Core supporters?
here's the thing, i believe the fundamental split has already occurred and the ones who place more importance on Nakamoto Consensus, have less skin in the bitcoin game. So, while i agree that Nakamoto Consensus is the mechanism by which we make hard decisions, I no longer have any faith that the bitcoin crowd feels the same way.

the bitcoin crowd at this point is a bunch of sheep brain washed by the ones at the top(who have their own agenda ) , these sheep have been trained to IGNORE the fundamentals and are ready and willing to dump a coin that disagrees with "the will of the gods". as sad as it is, i believe they have plenty of economic pull( even more so now that we have been divided by bitcoin Vs Bitcoin Cash ) enoght to undermine Nakamoto Consensus in favor of a phony democracy or maybe better described as "voluntary dictatorship"?

My financial decisions are influenced by my beliefs, but i tend to position myself in a way to win no matter the outcome.
 
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Honestly, I don't care so much if SegWit1x or SegWit2x. Both are not what I want, and I even think the sooner the failure of this model is disclosed, the better, so maybe SegWit1x would be a better course of action ...

However, I don't want to see the censorship, the manipulation, the moralization, the politics and the enemy-making to succeed. I want them to burn. I want the Bitcoin of a compromise between the parties to succeed, not the Bitcoin that underthrows the non-core side; I want the bitcoin of free speech succeed, not that of censorship; the Bitcoin of open-minded discussion, not that of dragon's den's smearing campaigns ...

I wish those of you who are able to read and write German took a visit on my blog and brigade me from time to time. Yesterday I made a survey about SegWit2x, and since then I am in fights with trolls saying my items are biased, because I give the option "Core should finally join" instead of "Core should join an irresponsible hushed unneccessary hard fork" or something like this. I have some nice discussions with polite small blockers, but as always there is some trollish small blocker who wants the whole attention, who does not discuss, but just insult. I finally decided that I will love to censor these kind of comments.
 

molecular

Active Member
Aug 31, 2015
372
1,391
@Christoph Bergmann

Honestly, I don't care so much if SegWit1x or SegWit2x. Both are not what I want, and I even think the sooner the failure of this model is disclosed, the better, so maybe SegWit1x would be a better course of action ...

However, I don't want to see the censorship, the manipulation, the moralization, the politics and the enemy-making to succeed. I want them to burn. I want the Bitcoin of a compromise between the parties to succeed, not the Bitcoin that underthrows the non-core side; I want the bitcoin of free speech succeed, not that of censorship; the Bitcoin of open-minded discussion, not that of dragon's den's smearing campaigns ...
Something in me resonates with your preference of the "compromise winning" outcome, but the b1x outcome and subsequent rise of bitcoin cash (IF that happens) would also send a very powerful message: "Your stupid propaganda/censorship/narrative control tools don't work on Bitcoin, at least not in the long run. Bitcoin just can't be changed so easily." This would *also* show the the manipulation, the moralization, the politics and the enemy-making to have failed (and they would burn even stronger). AND we'd have gotten rid of segwit and the associated path.
 

AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
2,097
5,797
bitco.in
Recommendation: stop pretending that it makes sense to follow whatever miners do, and argue for 2x on its intrinsic merits.
You realize that is how soft forks work! and the only reason we have Segwit is because it makes sense to follow whatever miners do to a point, BCH being a fork that results when miners push too far.

Segwit was not adopted on its merits but by coercing/lobbying miners to change the rules.

The only reason anyone would think the increase of the transaction limit is controversial is due to censorship and propaganda that claims otherwise. Honestly Segwit2X was adopted without consideration of merit and there is no rational reason to block the 2X capacity increase.

In the NYA the 2MB fork, not being controversial, required the controversial segwit be activated first, there are no objection to the 2X capacity increase just propaganda, censorship and the resulting FUD.
 

adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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check it out:
https://bitcoin.org/en/alert/2017-10-09-segwit2x-safety

this begs the question "what is bitcoin, during a fork", and its a hard question to answer. its CANNOT be as simple as "most hash power == bitcoin" because what if hashpower is 90% seg2x and then 5 hours later it 49% seg2x...
what if it takes a full 48hours for hashrate to fallow the market?

exchanges need to develop a standardized way of dealing with forks. they need to tell it like it is:

- all accounts are credited BTC1 and BTC2
- BTC trading is halted untill one of the two coins gains >51% hashing power for >1000blocks
- the winning coin is relabeled "BTC"

IMO that would be way more workable and impartial.
 

AdrianX

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Aug 28, 2015
2,097
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bitco.in
I've made my call. I am 75% cretin >60% of my predictions will come to be - I will reveal on the 31st.

IDx4iKt1x1MX2+3DzhuUvVpypop/Qiq3T9uBNz8jgJVxV/eC5OfNIU5SeRImuapSivDUfAjUIsM636yhbTSzqfU=
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There really is no "tie breaker" because everyone is always free to go off on their own chain.
I think you are mistaken, that's not bitcoin. Everyone is free to follow the majority, they can sell or buy "the everyone" creates demand for the rules the miners enforce, Miners could try predict the rules users want, they are also incentivized to be ultra conservative when it comes to changes.

Not everyone can fork off, you'll see the loud mouthed 1MB at any cost fundamentalists may try and fork they will find they are but a vocal minority living in an echo chamber created by censorship and that will be reflected in the price of the tokens they trade on their fork.
 
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adamstgbit

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Mar 13, 2016
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i think we dont give core enough credit when it comes to the amount of support they have, maybe its because we know most of their support is blind faith or due to the /r/bitcoin effect, but, the reason for there support, and the means they use to maintain that support, doesn't invalid their support...

if support for BCC / segwit /seg2x is a market, then i would say its currently acting irrational, and markets can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent.

can wait for the shit to hit the fan tho, on the 31st is it? :cool: