Wall Observer

[ChartBuddy]

 

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still in the high $460s I see. Let's get this moving up.

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[JimboToronto]

Ahhh, a new high for the year.

Movin' on up.

 

[adamstgbit]

That's strange.
http://bitcoinity.org/markets/kraken/EUR

Look at the 30-d-chart.

Price strongly rising, but volume stays flat.

On US-exchanges you see a slightly growing volume, but it's still tiny in a 6-m-range and not comparable to the volume of the november ralley.

Either there is some kind of manipulation at work or we are just at the very beginning of a rally.

this seems fairly normal.
everyone looks to US-exchanges to figure out what price they should be selling / buying at.
when stamps and finex rise, poeple on the other exchanges cancel their asks and place them higher.
bacily this would seem to indicate there is no resistance at all on other exchanges.

as for the volume on US exchanges.

it looks quite typical considering how stable the price has been.

everything seems to be lining up to go up Up UP!
[doublepost=1461698367][/doublepost]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[theZerg]

i dont understand how these retards are willing to pay almost double!

it makes no sense!!

how hard is it to learn how to secure some BTCs

fuck go to https://www.fiverr.com/ and pay someon 5$ to explain it to you, you dumb fuck rich people.

There's a (740/.95)-470 = ~300 dollar premium for GBTC. There's a 20% tax for long term cap gains outside of a retirement account. If someone sold now and bought BTC they'd have to pay that tax on subsequent BTC price appreciation. So if you are holding GBTC, you are expecting 20% of your gains to be > $300. In other words, the GBTC market is predicting a BTC price higher than $1500.

And this is conservative because there are additional risk factors involved with holding GBTC, for example, the emergence of another, non-supply limited ETF would cause it to lose its premium quickly.

Edit: This analysis isn't correct because you could buy about 1 and 2/3rds coins of BTC for GBTC... gtg though

 

[adamstgbit]

so you can invest funds from a retirement account and not pay cap gains tax?
interesting
in my view that might imply a 20-30% price premium not like 75-80%!!
[doublepost=1461712382][/doublepost]

is it me or it seems that current price increase is led by western exchanges rather than chinese ones? (currently all of them are ~3/4$ behind stamp, finex.)

I dont follow that closely. so i can't be sure if this is normal or not... but china does seem to be 5$ lower.
[doublepost=1461712419][/doublepost]holy shit CNY volume on OKcoin is Crazy high!
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=okcoinCNY&SubmitButton=Draw&r=730&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

better yet go on http://bitcoinity.org/markets/huobi/CNY
and zoom out to 2Yr view
wtf!?

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[rebuilder]

so you can invest funds from a retirement account and not pay cap gains tax?
interesting
in my view that might imply a 20-30% price premium not like 75-80%!!

That's what theZerg's calculation of a price expectation above 1500 USD was about. Let's talk about higher sums for clarity.

Say you buy BTC now at 465 USD. If the price reaches 2500 and you sell, you'll be liable for $ 2035*0.2 in taxes, or $407. That leaves you with $1628 in profit per coin.

If you buy on GBTC, going by theZerg's numbers, you pay 779 USD / BTC. Sell at 2500 USD and your profit is 1721 USD per coin, 93 USD more. The further above 2500 the price goes, the more you profit if you can avoid taxes this way.

Maybe I'm missing something, I can't make the numbers work out for a profit at 1500 USD, but the principle is there. If you seriously expect much higher BTC valuations, paying the premium on GBTC makes sense. It's a pretty damn risky bet IMO, but apparently some people think different.

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[adamstgbit]

i look forward to @JimboToronto " good morning bitcoin" comment today
[doublepost=1461768070][/doublepost]

That's what theZerg's calculation of a price expectation above 1500 USD was about. Let's talk about higher sums for clarity.

Say you buy BTC now at 465 USD. If the price reaches 2500 and you sell, you'll be liable for $ 2035*0.2 in taxes, or $407. That leaves you with $1628 in profit per coin.

If you buy on GBTC, going by theZerg's numbers, you pay 779 USD / BTC. Sell at 2500 USD and your profit is 1721 USD per coin, 93 USD more. The further above 2500 the price goes, the more you profit if you can avoid taxes this way.

Maybe I'm missing something, I can't make the numbers work out for a profit at 1500 USD, but the principle is there. If you seriously expect much higher BTC valuations, paying the premium on GBTC makes sense. It's a pretty damn risky bet IMO, but apparently some people think different.

that makes some sense i guess...
i dont think its a risky bet for much higher prices, if you plan on holding bitcoin for say 5 years, its very likly it will either be worth much much more or nothing at all. so ya. GBTC 700$ price might make some sense, if you plan on holding for 5 years and expect massive gains not paying tax on the profit will save you big money in the end.
[doublepost=1461768314,1461767589][/doublepost]if we can pop back over 460 in the next few hours we're good to go,

retrace to 439 before moving higher feels more likely tho

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[Norway]

 

[ChartBuddy]

 

[Richy_T]