Wall Observer

[freetrader]

I saw that Nice start to the New Year.

 

[79b79aa8]

one thing we know: it will be easy to remember BTCUSD on jan. 1, 2017.

there are about 1000 coins for sale on stamp at $1000, when they are eaten up or pulled (if price and pressure keeps building up on other exchanges), we will be over a grand across the board. the trick will be to stay there for a few weeks, until three digit coins are but a memory, and we enter a new capitalization phase.

in other words, i expect this to go more or less the same way it went one order of magnitude below.

 

[Mengerian]

Trading over $1000.00 on Bitstamp now as well

 

[freetrader]

Nice steady climb so far. I get the feeling like when an airplane is just beginning its climb and still has a long way to go before reaching cruise altitude.

Magical 1000 EUR threshold seems to be coming into reach as well.

 

[Mengerian]

Interesting market action at Bitstamp.

There were a couple large-ish dumps, ~500-700 coins or so each, about 45 min apart. Both pushed the price down from around $1024 to ~1000 or so, but each time the market bounced back quickly, and other exchanges seem unaffected.

Now there's a 200 coin bid wall holding price up at $1023 getting slowly nibbled away.

It all looks super bullish to me.

 

[adamstgbit]

Interesting market action at Bitstamp.

There were a couple large-ish dumps, ~500-700 coins or so each, about 45 min apart. Both pushed the price down from around $1024 to ~1000 or so, but each time the market bounced back quickly, and other exchanges seem unaffected.

Now there's a 200 coin bid wall holding price up at $1023 getting slowly nibbled away.

It all looks super bullish to me.

right doesn't feel toppy does it.
also i personally dont feel the excitement
i mean, as a holder its gr8 that price is nice and high, but i dont find myself as excited as i was with previous rallies

maybe its just me.

 

[Mengerian]

right doesn't feel toppy does it.
also i personally dont feel the excitement
i mean, as a holder its gr8 that price is nice and high, but i dont find myself as excited as i was with previous rallies

maybe its just me.

Don't think it's just you. The mood feels very underwhelming to me too.

It feels like we are just getting started though, so far everything seems unsurprising. No one is really shocked by the rise, it is just pleasantly fulfilling expectations.

It will be interesting to see if this rally starts getting crazier. If we get some rapid rises, short squeezes, and more Fear Of Missing Out, it could happen. The rally will only really get crazy if it breaks out of people's expectations.

Maybe the larger market cap makes a crazy wild rally less likely.

I think people are also tired and apprehensive from all the drama and uncertainty around the block size limit debate.

 

[79b79aa8]

to me, it feels like a replay of 2013. recall how:

1. finally broke $100 and went straight past $200 (april)
2. retraced down to $90, went over $100 again, then down to the $70's (may-june)
3. went back over $100, then down to the $70s again (july)
4. stayed in the $100- $200 band (aug-nov.)
5. shot up to $1150 (nov-dec).

now, it would just be too astonishing if the thing replayed itself along similar ways, but with a zero to the right. i cannot bring myself to believe it.

all i am saying is that it did not feel as spectacular when we were at step 1 above, as it did when we were at 5.

for now, my focus is on $1000 becoming the new normal, even if we dip below that a final couple times.

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Everything is on course. Can we match early-2013 "double every three five weeks" pace? I guess we have about a week three weeks to reach $1600 then.

EDIT: I mis-recalled. The initial steady rate was doubling every five weeks, then after it had doubled twice (hitting $50 from a starting point of ~$13) it switched to a three-week doubling time for a little over two more doublings. So we are actually moving fully on course now.

 

[Bagatell]

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=Bitcoin

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

According to my calculator, the early 2013 exponential growth rate of "doubling every 5 weeks" means 15% growth per week. Two weeks of that adds up to 32%. That's pretty much an exact match with the current increase from around 800 to around 1050 in about two weeks. This means that we are moving at pretty much exactly early 2013 growth speeds.

For reference, 15% growth per week is

• 32% in two weeks
• 52% in three weeks
• 74% in four weeks
• 101% in five weeks (i.e., double)

Or roughly:

• +30% in 2 wks
• +50% in 3 wks
• +75% in 4 wks
• 2x in 5 wks

Thus if we mirror the early 2013 post-halving rally, we'd expect around

• $1050 today/yesterday (two weeks into the rally)
• $1200 one week from now
• $1400 two weeks from now
• $1600 three weeks from now (double the rally starting point of about $800)
• $1850 four weeks from now (February 1st)
• $2100 five weeks from now (double the current price)
• $2400 six weeks from now
• $2800 seven weeks from now
• $3200 eight weeks from now (March 1st; quadruple the rally starting point)

However, from around $3000 ("the new $50") we'd shift into high gear, going another ~5x in about three weeks, meaning around $16,000 ("the new $260") in mid/late-March.

(From there, a full repeat of 2013 would mean a flash crash back down to about $4000, then a few months of floating around $8000, and finally a crazy explosion to near $100,000 in autumn of this year.)

 

[Mengerian]

Current spot Gold price $1163. Bitstamp All Time High Bitcoin price $1163. Coincidence?
[doublepost=1483547766,1483547144][/doublepost]Just read an interesting piece by Vinny Lingham.

He has been quite good at predicting price moves, and explaining some of the internal dynamics of the Bitcoin market through the 2014 bear market up until now.

In the piece, he is advocating/predicting that Bitcoin rise 2-3 fold per year for the next few years.

I respect his market analysis, the thing is I don't see how such a steady rise is possible. If investors see a steadily appreciating asset, at 100-200% per year, how will they react? They will pile in, thus precipitating accelerating gains until the rise becomes unsustainable, and ends in a (temporary) blow off top. Then, as in the past, it re-consolidates at a higher base and the cycle repeats.

I just can't imagine how a steadily increasing market would be compatible with human psychology. Plus Mr Bitcoin needs to toughen up his holders.

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

@Mengerian

The bucking could happen through extreme volatility on smaller timescales, or he could mean an average of 2-3x per year. That could mean 20x this year, 1/3 next year, 4x the following year, and 2x the next year, for example (total of 50x in four years). Or maybe even 100x this year, 1/8 next year, etc.

If we look at the past four years, we have increased a total of 100x, which is a little over an average of 3x per year (3^4 = 81),* so interpreted that way it's not too strange (unless he specifically said "steady" - I just skimmed the article).

* Actual annual rate to reach 100x in four years is ~3.16x per year

 

[Mengerian]

@Zangelbert Bingledack Here is his quote:

Bitcoin holders are funny bunch — especially the old school ones. They want to see the glory days of 20x returns in a year (and the accompanying crashes!) — almost like a drug addict looking for one more hit. Those days are gone. We should be aiming for 2–3x gains every year for the next couple of years, and then those returns should be steadily declining over time, but always going up and to the right — the power of compound growth will ensure that we still get 20x returns, but over a longer period of time and in more sustainable fashion.

Sounds to me like he is arguing against more volatile rises.

It's funny, I'm not sure if holders really prefer the more volatile rise, personally I just think it's inevitable if Bitcoin is to grow massively.

I agree with you that 2-3x per year on average is plausible, and that it will be a bumpy ride along the way.

I also agree that as Bitcoin grows, it will become progressively less volatile. But right now it is still a small minnow in a large ocean of liquidity.

On another note, I find it interesting how many psychologically significant price levels there are coming up. We have:

CNY ATH (~8000 CNY, ~$1150 USD)
USD ATH ($1163 on Bitstamp)
Gold price (~$1163 today)
1000 GBP ~$1230 USD
20 Billion Market cap price (~$1250)
[doublepost=1483550136][/doublepost]BTW, Huobi just crossed 8000 CNY for an all time high

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

@Mengerian

Yes, I missed that bit. I agree he is likely wrong about that, for the same reasons you gave.
[doublepost=1483550292][/doublepost]And wow, just jumped another $25 $33.

 

[adamstgbit]

to me, it feels like a replay of 2013. recall how:

1. finally broke $100 and went straight past $200 (april)
2. retraced down to $90, went over $100 again, then down to the $70's (may-june)
3. went back over $100, then down to the $70s again (july)
4. stayed in the $100- $200 band (aug-nov.)
5. shot up to $1150 (nov-dec).

now, it would just be too astonishing if the thing replayed itself along similar ways, but with a zero to the right. i cannot bring myself to believe it.

all i am saying is that it did not feel as spectacular when we were at step 1 above, as it did when we were at 5.

for now, my focus is on $1000 becoming the new normal, even if we dip below that a final couple times.

to me it feels more like the time i bet 1BTC that bitcoin would not break above 32$ again, in less than 10 days. of course it did(i thought "its too soon, maybe in 6 months or a year we can break ATH", I lost) ... then it went to 266$

 

[79b79aa8]

well, you lost 32 bucks.
i bet 1 BTC you made more than that since this morning.

 

[Richy_T]

I just can't imagine how a steadily increasing market would be compatible with human psychology. Plus Mr Bitcoin needs to toughen up his holders.

You are absolutely correct. There is no way you can have a steady rise if your expected returns exceed market averages. Probably not even if you are below market averages if it's not by too much.

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Speaking of toughened soldiers, we are extremely well-positioned this time.

 

[79b79aa8]

yeah, selling points were set up in advance, in a bell curve, and we have not started to cross them yet. zero stress.