The Great Halvening Thread

[jaredjoseph]

It certainly will!

37 weeks, 3 days, 14 hours, 10 minutes to go!

"37 weeks, 2 days, 14 hours, 10 minutes"

"That is when the world will end" ~Frank

Donnie Darko
[doublepost=1446837663][/doublepost]PS I vote we change the name of the thread to The Great HALVENING

 

[Inca]

Not sure about that particular spelling but done!

Wow eery similarity to that donnie darko time

 

[jaredjoseph]

bahaha! That's stupendous! "Halvening" is just as legitimate of a bitcoin-culture use-case as "HODL" and "This is Gentleman!"

I don't remember what the actual days and hours were for Donnie Darko, but we can certainly imagine their countdown to the Bitcoin HALVENING!

 

[MonadTran]

With bitcoin, there is no production (*) and no consumption (the coins just change hands and are always in someones possession).

I would say, production is what's coming from the miners, and consumption is what's off the market long term, in the hands of the HODLers and True Believers. Sure, the True Believers might convert some of their coins to other forms at a certain point, to protect their retirement money from a catastrophic event, or otherwise. But I don't think we are at a point where it makes sense for too many people.

 

[Inca]

29 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes to go (courtesy of bitcoinclock.com) until the halving!

 

[molecular]

reminds me of this wonderful scene from a Monty Python movie:

 

[Erdogan]

Still holding out for 560k

640k - it should be enough for everyone.
[doublepost=1451475276][/doublepost]

I would say, production is what's coming from the miners, and consumption is what's off the market long term, in the hands of the HODLers and True Believers. Sure, the True Believers might convert some of their coins to other forms at a certain point, to protect their retirement money from a catastrophic event, or otherwise. But I don't think we are at a point where it makes sense for too many people.

Well, hodlers and true believers hold their coins for a reason, to bring them to the market some unspecified time in the future. If not, there would be no point in holding them. Coins lost forever, are however like to consumption.

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

If Bitcoin goes mainstream, you won't have to bring them to market.

 

[Erdogan]

Well, not only the bourses, but also the shopping centers. The market, in general.

 

[Abid Omar]

24 weeks only!

 

[Erdogan]

I would say, production is what's coming from the miners, and consumption is what's off the market long term, in the hands of the HODLers and True Believers. Sure, the True Believers might convert some of their coins to other forms at a certain point, to protect their retirement money from a catastrophic event, or otherwise. But I don't think we are at a point where it makes sense for too many people.

Old quote, but....

I regard only lost coins as consumption. Money taken away from the market in long time storage, is just that, long time storage. They may come to the market some day (maybe after generations). There is no rational reason to save for infinity.

So there is production, in the beginning, but predetermined. And some lost coins. But on the large scale, the quantum is fixed, and the market is thus coins changing hands,
[doublepost=1454203665][/doublepost]Ah, I already did reply to that one...

 

[Inca]

18 weeks, 5 days, 5 hours, 40 minutes

Inching closer whilst bitcoin seems sat on the precipice between giant breakout after a 2 year bear market and oblivion due to captured governance.

 

[Digiconomist]

The halving could be a potential disaster if the price doesn't go up significantly in the next few months. There are roughly three scenarios:

• Price goes up / small decrease in network hashrate
• Moderate decrease in hashrate / notable decrease in TX processing capacity / price goes down (pressured by users losing confidence)
• Strong decrease in hashrate / Bitcoin gets caught in death spiral

These events may happen, simply because Bitcoin has slow difficulty retargetting (if this was changed nothing happening would become the most likely). By elimination, I consider the second scenario the most likely (with the risk that it triggers the third one). I wrote on this earlier:

In this scenario, the total Bitcoin hashrate would drop by 30-35 percent on average shortly after the halving. This scenario could already cause some significant problems, because it would increase the time for new blocks to be created up to 15 minutes. This situation would last up to two weeks, because there would still be 1,344 blocks left to the next difficulty retarget and the number of blocks per day would drop to 96. It also creates further downside risk, because miner income per day is slashed by more than half as a result. The daily reward before the halving would equal $1.5 million worth of Bitcoin. The halving brings this down to $0.75 million per day, and the extended time to mine a block further reduces this to $0.5 million per day until the difficulty retargets. This equals a drop of two thirds in miner income per day.

Lastly, the price of Bitcoin could also be facing pressure as extended block times would further limit Bitcoin’s transaction processing capabilities. Bitcoin would temporarily process 1MB of transactions every 15 minutes rather than every 10 minutes, equalling a reduction of the current block size limit to less than 700KB. If the price drops by just 10 percent, then the combined effects of this drop, the bloc reward halving and extended block times could (at least temporarily) lower miners’ income by around 70 percent per day. This may trigger the next scenario as well.

The price doubling in the coming months is less likely, because nothing is really happening now, and SegWit is likely to dissapoint as transactions continue to increase (some people still think SegWit is a scaling solution - so it will be a nasty surprise when they realize it does nothing for scaling). The halving itself only cuts new supply, which is less than three percent of the total daily volume. It is hard to see why this would send the price to the moon, so fingers crossed something else will.

 

[Inca]

15 weeks, 3 days, 15 hours, 10 minutes

Blocksize debate still unresolved. No sign of the ETF. Classic has enough # power to prevent segwit activating.

Looking at the technicals this enormous flag/wedge continues to develop with falling volatility. I am hedged 90:10 bitcoin:alt coins.

We could see some extraordinary volatility moving forward. Toss a coin for which direction the market will break - hoping for up

 

[ladoga]

Predictions in this thread from the late last year look so optimistic and I could easily agree if it wasn't for the blocksize limit. Do you think that price is able to grow without an increase in transaction rate?

 

[Inca]

Price at top of channel (460) as the Halving is mere weeks away.

No solution to scaling in sight. Satoshi popped his head up then disappeared once again, perhaps forever.

Do we break higher for a pre-Halving rally heading towards the ATH? Or languish rangebound for the rest of the year.

If I were to engineer a bubble, now would be the time.

 

[molecular]

@Inca

If I were to engineer a bubble, now would be the time.

The blockstream stranglehold is making this hard. It might still work to an extent, but it's like driving your car limited to 1st gear: takes all the fun out of it when those coreheads tell you: "all is fine, we're not going backwards!".

 

[Inca]

Not long now..

 

[Inca]

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-09 16:43:14 UTC (2 weeks, 5 days, 13 hours)

Price has risen without any major corrections from $448 to ~$760 (73.7% in one month).

Still 22 days to go..I predict a parabolic move upwards and some extreme market volatility.

Gradually phasing back to fiat as the price ascends (placing bids to catch a flash crash lower). Finding the top is always impossible except in hindsight. Bitcoin usually allows us back in again lower - though not always

 

[Inca]

8 hours to go gentlemen.

Let us see if we have an epic rise, fall or sideways